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  • 1.  Risk

    Posted 02-20-2024 15:37

    Hello everyone, I have not received an email from this section (my section) in a long, long time. Did something stop that I am not aware of? Did my name get accidentally dropped at some point? I paid my dues!

    OK, anyway, here is my question for anyone. For some medical research I went to Pubmed and tried to find the risk of suicide of someone who has attempted suicide. I could not find a numeric value, e.g., the percent completed suicide in the first follow-up year of those who have previously tried. There are lots of papers (and Google responses) identifying attempted suicide as a risk factor, but no numbers. I may not have looked at enough papers, but if someone has this number or a source for it, kindly respond.

    Thank you. And, if the section is continuing the many interesting conversations that it used to have (or still has out of my sight), kindly plug me back in. Great section! Other sections I joined to try out had mainly meeting announcements and no discussion. 

    Best wishes,

    Nayak



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    Nayak Polissar
    Principal Statistician
    The Mountain-Whisper-Light: Statistics & Data Science
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  • 2.  RE: Risk

    Posted 02-20-2024 16:42

    I doubt you will find "the number," as different studies on the topic will be looking at slightly different questions using different methods, but you might find this article interesting:

    http://seattlefriends.org/files/seiden_study.pdf



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    Christopher Ryan
    Clinical Associate Professor of Family Medicine
    SUNY Upstate Clinical Campus
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    Original Message


  • 3.  RE: Risk

    Posted 02-20-2024 17:14

    Maybe, is this what you're looking for? 

    Seemüller F, Meier S, Obermeier M, et al. Three-Year long-term outcome of 458 naturalistically treated inpatients with major depressive episode: severe relapse rates and risk factors.     Eur Arch Psychiatry Clin Neurosci. 2014;264(7):567-575. doi:10.1007/s00406-014-0495-7

    In randomized controlled trials, maintenance treatment for relapse prevention has been proven to be efficacious in patients responding in acute treatment, its efficacy in long-term outcome in "real-world patients" has yet to be proven. Three-year long-term data from a large naturalistic multisite follow-up were presented. Severe relapse was defined as suicide, severe suicide attempt, or rehospitalization. Next to relapse rates, possible risk factors including antidepressant medication were identified using univariate generalized log-rank tests and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model for time to severe relapse. Overall data of 458 patients were available for analysis. Of all patients, 155 (33.6%) experienced at least one severe relapse during the 3-year follow-up. The following variables were associated with a shorter time to a severe relapse in univariate and multivariate analyses: multiple hospitalizations, presence of avoidant personality disorder, continuing antipsychotic medication, and no further antidepressant treatment. In comparison with other studies, the observed rate of severe relapse during 3-year period is rather low. This is one of the first reports demonstrating a beneficial effect of long-term antidepressant medication on severe relapse rates in naturalistic patients. Concomitant antipsychotic medication may be a proxy marker for treatment resistant and psychotic depression.

    Phil Yeung, PharmD, MSP, MAS(Clinical Research)
    MPKey, LLC.
    Consultant, Publication and Evidence Generation

    Grad Student- MS Health Data Science, KUMC






    Original Message


  • 4.  RE: Risk

    Posted 02-20-2024 21:26

    Thank you very much, Christoper. That is an excellent paper. As you note, there is not just one risk number, but I could calculate a helpful "ballpark" number from the interesting tables in the paper. That is what I needed. 

    ASA consulting section does it again! 

    Best wishes,

    Nayak



    ------------------------------
    Nayak Polissar
    Principal Statistician
    The Mountain-Whisper-Light: Statistics & Data Science
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    Original Message


  • 5.  RE: Risk

    Posted 02-20-2024 18:21

    Hi Nayack, 

    thank you.  Regarding your question about getting emails from this group. Yes, There have been occasional hiccups in the system.  For example, while I was section chair,  I stopped receiving copies of comments I posted and was also unable to post comments. For that the section officers and I arranged, inspired by the Presidential transfer of authority in the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution, for the Chair Elect (now current chair) Dr. Ball to post on my behalf. Indeed there was a bug and the vendor successfully fixed the bug and my ability to post was restored. 

    Alternatively You should always be able to "see" the posts to the group by scrolling (albeit slowly) through past comments. If you have set it up, you should always receive a copy of your posts.  To facilitate searching prior posts, and While I was chair , a section member wrote an R script that could "read  download/export"  all posts to the group into an excel file.

    If  you aren't getting copies of posts by section members, or you submit a post and it does not appear, or you don't get copies of posts you make ,  then contact Rick Peterson and he can forward that to the IT expert or the vendor that manages the community - and possibly there is a bug - the expert or  vendor can sort that out.



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    Chris Barker, Ph.D.
    2023 Chair Statistical Consulting Section
    Consultant and
    Adjunct Associate Professor of Biostatistics
    www.barkerstats.com


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    "In composition you have all the time you want to decide what to say in 15 seconds, in improvisation you have 15 seconds."
    -Steve Lacy
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    Original Message