A nicely formatted and more detailed version of below- Downloaded from:
www.barkerstats.com/PDFs/ASA/CNSL/MCMC-Gerrymandering-Redistricting.pdf
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Mathematics for Redistricting and Defining and Detecting Gerrymandering
WAPO recently published an article about redistricting and "technology" for assessing gerrymandering among other issues.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2022/algorithmic-redistricting/?itid=hp-top-table-main-t-5
I suggest below to section members for general interest and in light of current redistricting efforts and court cases about gerrymandering following the US Census release. There are some high-level mathematics involved simply in the mathematics required to define gerrymandering, not at all in my skill set.
Secondarily, I provide a topic suggestion below for section members considering organizing a contributed, invited paper session or organizing a short course at a future JSM. For reason mentioned below there may be a possibility for consulting expert witness testimony work ($) for interested consulting section members, though I speculate there may be a "very high bar" for that activity.
The technology mentioned in the WAPO article is "Monte Carlo" simulation. More precisely "Markov Chain Monte Carlo" (MCMC) simulation is used in simulation work for some redistricting. And results and assessments arising from the use of MCMC are sometimes presented in court – a non-technical description in the WAPO article. Some background for what I understand to be the origin of the term gerrymander and a graphic of the gerrymander map of 1812 for eastern Massachusetts
https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xODU3ODEwOS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2NzkzOTk5NX0.EnwTDnKY918ctk-IKJVH0HTFuNc3sF3SMBgMBKUjrHg/img.jpg
Explanation and background to the original gerrymander graphic
https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/53-ever-been-gerrymandered/
The article specifically mentions Dr. Moon Duchin a mathematician at Tufts. About 5 or so years ago, Dr. Duchin and her team of about 10 assistants , conducted a short course, at various locations around the country to teach the technical methods , mathematics , statistics and principles for redistricting. I attended the about 5 full day course in San Francisco. That course was offered through the MCGG (Metric Geometry and Gerrymandering Group ) redistricting lab https://mggg.org/
A few publications by Dr Duchin about the mathematics and metrics and related issues for gerrymandering https://mggg.org/work
As to potential consulting work: One specific claim of the instructors of the course was that attendees completing the entire course would be qualified to give Expert Witness Testimony in court cases about Gerrymandering. Perhaps More importantly one of the course instructors commented that redistricting is not simply limited to the US Senate and house, but may apply in (potentially) simpler situations such as the local school board.
Dr. Duchin main research area is geometric group theory and geometric topology https://math.tufts.edu/people/faculty/moon-duchin
- I commend anyone interested - consider inviting Dr Duchin for a lecture or presentation at a future JSM.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<< further details , references and citations for Dr Duchin and MCGG in the attached>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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Chris Barker, Ph.D.
2022 Statistical Consulting Section
Chair-elect
Consultant and
Adjunct Associate Professor of Biostatistics
www.barkerstats.com---
"In composition you have all the time you want to decide what to say in 15 seconds, in improvisation you have 15 seconds."
-Steve Lacy
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