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Perhaps a section member(s) can locate the judges full written opinion online , referenced by the newspapers (details below). I hope the full written opinion may provide more context about one particular sentence the judge wrote. I am asking only about one sentence, not the case itself.   Judge Nicholas' written opinion,excerpted in the news, presents an interesting (to me) statement about (at least one judges) views on probability. Certainly one quite different than any that could ever be applied in the industry where I work, pharmaceutical drug development. And perhaps a section member may know if below  is actual legal doctrine, or simply a judges written legal hyperbole specifically "inherently improbable". And also does it matter that Judge Nicholas also writes   a "reasonable juror could conclude" or that a "reckless man would believe it"? I'm definitely no expert in these matters, I had never thought the court had some expectations about reasonable jurors understanding probability or "inherently improbable"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/supreme-court-turns-back-effort-134336065.html

excerpting from the article

"As a preliminary matter, a reasonable juror could conclude that the existence of a vast international conspiracy that is ignored by the government but proven by a spreadsheet on an internet blog is so inherently improbable that only a reckless man would believe it," U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols wrote in his opinion.

------------------------------
Chris Barker, Ph.D.
2022 Statistical Consulting Section
Chair-elect
Consultant and
Adjunct Associate Professor of Biostatistics
www.barkerstats.com


---
"In composition you have all the time you want to decide what to say in 15 seconds, in improvisation you have 15 seconds."
-Steve Lacy
------------------------------

Hi Chris,

The full opinion can be found at https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/district-of-columbia/dcdce/1:2021cv00445/227759/54/ and references a 1968 Supreme Court ruling that uses similar phrasing:

"Nor will they be likely to prevail when the publisher's allegations are so inherently improbable that only a reckless man would have put them in circulation. Likewise, recklessness may be found where there are obvious reasons to doubt the veracity of the informant or the accuracy of his reports"

That case is St. Amant v. Thompson, 390 U.S. 727 (1968) and can be found at https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/390/727/#:~:text=St.-,Amant%20v,%2C%20390%20U.S.%20727%20(1968)&text=The%20reckless%20disregard%20for%20truth,the%20accuracy%20of%20the%20material .

Hope this helps,






------------------------------
Daniel Coven
Statistical Consultant
Thunderbird School of Global Management
Arizona State University
Daniel.Coven@asu.edu
------------------------------

Original Message:
Sent: 10-03-2022 21:44
From: Chris Barker
Subject: Court Opinion . probability and "inherently improbable"

Perhaps a section member(s) can locate the judges full written opinion online , referenced by the newspapers (details below). I hope the full written opinion may provide more context about one particular sentence the judge wrote. I am asking only about one sentence, not the case itself.   Judge Nicholas' written opinion,excerpted in the news, presents an interesting (to me) statement about (at least one judges) views on probability. Certainly one quite different than any that could ever be applied in the industry where I work, pharmaceutical drug development. And perhaps a section member may know if below  is actual legal doctrine, or simply a judges written legal hyperbole specifically "inherently improbable". And also does it matter that Judge Nicholas also writes   a "reasonable juror could conclude" or that a "reckless man would believe it"? I'm definitely no expert in these matters, I had never thought the court had some expectations about reasonable jurors understanding probability or "inherently improbable"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/supreme-court-turns-back-effort-134336065.html

excerpting from the article

"As a preliminary matter, a reasonable juror could conclude that the existence of a vast international conspiracy that is ignored by the government but proven by a spreadsheet on an internet blog is so inherently improbable that only a reckless man would believe it," U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols wrote in his opinion.

------------------------------
Chris Barker, Ph.D.
2022 Statistical Consulting Section
Chair-elect
Consultant and
Adjunct Associate Professor of Biostatistics
www.barkerstats.com


---
"In composition you have all the time you want to decide what to say in 15 seconds, in improvisation you have 15 seconds."
-Steve Lacy
------------------------------

Dear Daniel,
thank you.
The relevant information appears to start on page 19, headed "B. actual malice".

------------------------------
Chris Barker, Ph.D.
2022 Statistical Consulting Section
Chair-elect
Consultant and
Adjunct Associate Professor of Biostatistics
www.barkerstats.com


---
"In composition you have all the time you want to decide what to say in 15 seconds, in improvisation you have 15 seconds."
-Steve Lacy
------------------------------

Original Message:
Sent: 10-03-2022 22:42
From: Daniel Coven
Subject: Court Opinion . probability and "inherently improbable"

Hi Chris,

The full opinion can be found at https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/district-of-columbia/dcdce/1:2021cv00445/227759/54/ and references a 1968 Supreme Court ruling that uses similar phrasing:

"Nor will they be likely to prevail when the publisher's allegations are so inherently improbable that only a reckless man would have put them in circulation. Likewise, recklessness may be found where there are obvious reasons to doubt the veracity of the informant or the accuracy of his reports"

That case is St. Amant v. Thompson, 390 U.S. 727 (1968) and can be found at https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/390/727/#:~:text=St.-,Amant%20v,%2C%20390%20U.S.%20727%20(1968)&text=The%20reckless%20disregard%20for%20truth,the%20accuracy%20of%20the%20material .

Hope this helps,






------------------------------
Daniel Coven
Statistical Consultant
Thunderbird School of Global Management
Arizona State University
Daniel.Coven@asu.edu

Original Message:
Sent: 10-03-2022 21:44
From: Chris Barker
Subject: Court Opinion . probability and "inherently improbable"

Perhaps a section member(s) can locate the judges full written opinion online , referenced by the newspapers (details below). I hope the full written opinion may provide more context about one particular sentence the judge wrote. I am asking only about one sentence, not the case itself.   Judge Nicholas' written opinion,excerpted in the news, presents an interesting (to me) statement about (at least one judges) views on probability. Certainly one quite different than any that could ever be applied in the industry where I work, pharmaceutical drug development. And perhaps a section member may know if below  is actual legal doctrine, or simply a judges written legal hyperbole specifically "inherently improbable". And also does it matter that Judge Nicholas also writes   a "reasonable juror could conclude" or that a "reckless man would believe it"? I'm definitely no expert in these matters, I had never thought the court had some expectations about reasonable jurors understanding probability or "inherently improbable"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/supreme-court-turns-back-effort-134336065.html

excerpting from the article

"As a preliminary matter, a reasonable juror could conclude that the existence of a vast international conspiracy that is ignored by the government but proven by a spreadsheet on an internet blog is so inherently improbable that only a reckless man would believe it," U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols wrote in his opinion.

------------------------------
Chris Barker, Ph.D.
2022 Statistical Consulting Section
Chair-elect
Consultant and
Adjunct Associate Professor of Biostatistics
www.barkerstats.com


---
"In composition you have all the time you want to decide what to say in 15 seconds, in improvisation you have 15 seconds."
-Steve Lacy
------------------------------

District appellate court opinions are available through search.

------------------------------
Andrew Beveridge
Professor of Sociology Emeritus / President, Social Explorer
------------------------------

Original Message:
Sent: 10-03-2022 21:44
From: Chris Barker
Subject: Court Opinion . probability and "inherently improbable"

Perhaps a section member(s) can locate the judges full written opinion online , referenced by the newspapers (details below). I hope the full written opinion may provide more context about one particular sentence the judge wrote. I am asking only about one sentence, not the case itself.   Judge Nicholas' written opinion,excerpted in the news, presents an interesting (to me) statement about (at least one judges) views on probability. Certainly one quite different than any that could ever be applied in the industry where I work, pharmaceutical drug development. And perhaps a section member may know if below  is actual legal doctrine, or simply a judges written legal hyperbole specifically "inherently improbable". And also does it matter that Judge Nicholas also writes   a "reasonable juror could conclude" or that a "reckless man would believe it"? I'm definitely no expert in these matters, I had never thought the court had some expectations about reasonable jurors understanding probability or "inherently improbable"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/supreme-court-turns-back-effort-134336065.html

excerpting from the article

"As a preliminary matter, a reasonable juror could conclude that the existence of a vast international conspiracy that is ignored by the government but proven by a spreadsheet on an internet blog is so inherently improbable that only a reckless man would believe it," U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols wrote in his opinion.

------------------------------
Chris Barker, Ph.D.
2022 Statistical Consulting Section
Chair-elect
Consultant and
Adjunct Associate Professor of Biostatistics
www.barkerstats.com


---
"In composition you have all the time you want to decide what to say in 15 seconds, in improvisation you have 15 seconds."
-Steve Lacy
------------------------------