Dear Colleagues,
The Section on Statistics in Defense and National Security (SDNS) is pleased to announce an upcoming webinar on April 9th.
Speaker: Dr. Devin Francom (Los Alamos National Laboratory)
Title: Getting the Most Out of Sensitivity Analysis: A Brief Review of Practical Approaches
Date: Thursday, April 9, 2026
Time: 3:00 – 4:30 PM Eastern / 12:00 noon – 1:30 PM Pacific
Registration (Zoom, free): SDNS Webinar Registration
Abstract: Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the response of a model, process, or system varies as inputs or initial conditions are varied in realistic ways. Many approaches to sensitivity analysis exist with varying qualities, some of which are only well known to the advanced practitioner. We will explain, demonstrate, and compare a collection of these approaches, emphasizing the questions each can answer and the computation (number of model runs) required. We include methods such as variance-based sensitivity, gradient-based sensitivity, design of experiments approaches, a moment-free approach, an active subspace approach, and emulator-based approaches. We will demonstrate these approaches using the Preston-Tonks-Wallace (PTW) strength model with 10 parameters as a test problem, answering questions such as "What can I learn about PTW with 25, 500, or 10000 model runs?" and "What linear and nonlinear effects and interactions are in PTW, and how important are they in explaining the variation of the response?". These kinds of analyses can prove surprising by how much they are able to reveal about a model even when treated as a black box, often providing significant benefit to the model developer or model user.
For more information about the SDNS webinar series, please visit the ASA SDNS website or reach out to Elise Roberts (SDNS.AmStat@gmail.com).
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Elise Roberts
Statistics in Defense and National Security
https://community.amstat.org/sdns/homeSDNS.AmStat@gmail.com------------------------------