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  • 1.  CBO - Congressional budget office

    Posted 07-22-2025 00:03

    Please I don't want to diminish the bone pain horror of this. 

    I'm sure  Brando described it best in Apocalypse Now  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPPGMNOLaMw

    Does anybody know how the CBO determines exactly how many will lose Medicaid coverage?

    I know enough (or too much) economics that I conjecture there is a regression equation somewhere with a dependent variable. 

    "Medicaid signups" with numerous covariates.  

    GWU seems to have all the covariates, but not the regression equation but no confidence interval. ChatGPT seems to have a hallucination about the estimates, so I won't post chatgpt

    and would a confidence interval on the estimate change a senator's mind?

    https://ccf.georgetown.edu/2025/05/27/medicaid-and-chip-cuts-in-the-house-passed-reconciliation-bill-explained/

    -thx.

    -chris



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    Chris Barker, Ph.D.
    Adjunct Professor of Biostatistics
    University of Illinois Chicago, UIC-SPH
    www.barkerstats.com


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    "In composition you have all the time you want to decide what to say in 15 seconds, in improvisation you have 15 seconds."
    -Steve Lacy
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  • 2.  RE: CBO - Congressional budget office

    Posted 07-23-2025 06:58

    Chris Barker writes "would a confidence interval on the estimate change a senator's mind?"

    In my experience, no. In my experience, legislators decide in advance based on political principles and affiliations, and then afterward go looking for statistics only as permission to do what they decided in advance. 

    Numbers may not change he minds of politicians (or business leaders either) but human stories can. This is where we can play an effective role. Instead of sending them our statistical analyses, a more effective way forward is to do the analysis ourselves and then tell the stories of the statisitics in terms of peoples' lives who are affected. We need to tell - not the statistical results - but the human stories that embody those results. In the civil rights movement, statistics didn't win civil rights cases - statistics combined with the stories of Rosa Parks, Richard and Mildred Loving, Jim Obergefell and John Arthur, and others like these won the cases. Both need to work together to change minds.  

    Who is the Rosa Parks of today?

    David



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    David J Corliss, PhD
    Director, Peace-Work www.peace-work.org
    davidjcorliss@peace-work.org
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    Original Message


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