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  • 1.  Congressional Districting

    Posted 08-06-2025 13:16

         With the emergence of gerrymandering-squared in Texas, I want to make an important point.  We'll never have fair congressional districts until they are derived by algorithm, with no human intervention, depending only on population and location.  I have such an algorithm.  There are many others.  They all aim for reasonably shaped districts with approximately equal populations.  My algorithm clusters US Census block groups with well-defined populations and locations (longitude-latitude) into ideal districts subject to each state's apportionment of 435 House seats.

         It's worth noting that congressional apportionment used to be like the Wild West, as districting is now.  However, since 1941 we have had a legislated apportionment algorithm.  It's not perfect, but at least we have one.  After each decennial census, the Census Bureau runs the algorithm, announces the results, and there is barely a whimper, notwithstanding some questionable calls like Montana and Rhode Island each getting two seats in 2020 at the expense of New York and Ohio.  In any event, we need the same sort of setup for congressional districting, i.e., Census runs a legislated districting algorithm after each decennial census, they announce the results, and the case is closed for the next ten years.

         Finally, the House of Representatives is way too small.  It has had 435 seats for the past hundred years while US population has more than tripled.  I'm not suggesting tripling House seats, but some have suggested adding 150-160.  That in itself would enhance fair, proportional representation in the House, and in the Electoral College.

    https://github.com/raagnew/IdealCongressionalDistricting

    https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/bob.agnew/vizzes

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/09/opinion/expanded-house-representatives-size.html

    https://www.raagnew.com/us-congressional-apportionments.html



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    Robert Agnew
    Analytics Consultant
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  • 2.  RE: Congressional Districting

    Posted 08-07-2025 07:25

    Dr. Agnew writes "...derived by algorithm, with no human intervention..."

    Speaking generally, not is this specific case only, algorithms have biases. The simple fact of using an algorithm does not preclude human impact. Examples include but are not limited to

    • Biased training data, where past human decisions are used to label outcomes employed in training the algorithm. 
    • Human impact on feature selection, where the features selected for the algorithm convery human preferences. 

    Due to these factors, bias testing mitigation should be an important step in algorithm development. Simply using an algorithm does not automatically make a process free of human influence.

    David 



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    David J Corliss, PhD
    Principal Data Scientist, Grafham Analytics
    davidjcorliss@gmail.com
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  • 3.  RE: Congressional Districting

    Posted 08-13-2025 13:25

    I don't have any problem with bias mitigation.  In fact, I think that algorithms should be carefully screened for bias.  That said, it's hard for me to see how a straightforward clustering algorithm, based transparently on basic Census block group data (population and location), would be biased.  Indeed, it ignores sensitive features like race, income, and their proxies which can be used to systematically bias a districting algorithm.  I could be wrong, but I believe that a straightforward districting algorithm would enhance minority competitiveness and representation.  What we have now are algorithms that are purposely biased for political advantage, usually at the expense of minorities.  I think we agree that the playing field should be wide-open, even, and subject to transparent rules and calculations. 



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    Robert Agnew
    Analytics Consultant
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  • 4.  RE: Congressional Districting

    Posted 08-07-2025 11:28

    Well said, Robert. However, the Electoral College will only be even approximately fair when States cast their votes in proportion to their popular vote.



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    Keith Ord
    Professor Emeritus
    Georgetown University
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  • 5.  RE: Congressional Districting

    Posted 08-13-2025 13:51

    You are right that the Electoral College is an undemocratic relic.  My only point is that a larger House of Representatives would diminish the EC's red-state bias a bit by further diluting the two-senator component.  That is definitely not a substitute for a true popular presidential vote, which of course would require a constitutional amendment.  Enlarging the House is not so constrained and it would definitely boost proportional representation, in both Congress and the Electoral College.  435 is not written in stone!   



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    Robert Agnew
    Analytics Consultant
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