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  • 1.  climate change. Wildfire risk assessment tool

    Posted 05-18-2022 19:47
    I live in California and this may be of greatest interest to ASA colleagues in California where wildfires are a yearly concern.
    A public domain tool for quantifying wildfire risk in your town is available, I live near Sacramento and enter that city into the risk tool.
    The risk tool below appears to provide a wilidfire risk for any city in the United States, it is not exclusively California.  The risk tool was prepared by "First Street" a climate research non-profit. The risk tool documentation refers to "climate change" and provides other risk assessment tools, for example, flood risk

    the nicely formatted version of below is located  here. I excerpted the relevant links to published literature. IN tun those cite the databases used to develop the tool.
    www.barkerstats.com/PDFs/Science/WildFire.pdf 

    and I included in the attached the price ($) for a  one time access of the detailed wildfire risk assessment, a very expensive $46,000.00

     

    https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/fires/article261493417.html

     

    A new report released this week by a U.S. climate research nonprofit estimated that more than 4.6 million properties in California, or about 40% of the state, have at least "moderate" risk of burning in a wildfire some time in the next three decades. So where, according to First Street Foundation's analysis, is the fire risk highest in the four-county capital region of Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer and Yolo?

     

    Read more at: https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/fires/article261493417.html#storylink=cpy

     

     

    Overview models and methodology for wildfire, and floods

     

    https://firststreet.org/

     

    Methodology overview – Simplified

     

    https://firststreet.org/research-lab/published-research/first-street-foundation-wildfire-methodology-simplified/

    https://edit.firststreet.org/research-lab/published-research/published-research-wildfire-model/

     

    Methodology overview - Technical

     

    https://firststreet.org/research-lab/published-research/wildfire-technical-methodology/

     

    Published Research

     

    https://firststreet.org/research-lab/published-research/published-research-wildfire-model/

     

     

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4110468

     

    https://deliverypdf.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=449064097090114094097065013110011018105010039080036071121024106103072080096102124031029001042036049056029090070066002005120023025035039078017069075067077025094115028085084019085068119097118107075089098123019114087110077116110116087018098122079073001020&EXT=pdf&INDEX=TRUE

     

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17umwsPgzQs&feature=youtu.be

     

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/16/climate/wildfire-risk-map-properties.html

     

     

    https://firststreet.org/data-access/paid-access/

     

     

     



    ------------------------------
    Chris Barker, Ph.D.
    2022 Statistical Consulting Section
    Chair-elect
    Consultant and
    Adjunct Associate Professor of Biostatistics
    www.barkerstats.com


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    "In composition you have all the time you want to decide what to say in 15 seconds, in improvisation you have 15 seconds."
    -Steve Lacy
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  • 2.  RE: climate change. Wildfire risk assessment tool

    Posted 05-18-2022 21:09
    You might consider looking at USDA Forest Service websites for climate change and wildland fire risk.  Here are a few of those links:
    https://www.fs.usda.gov/science-technology/climate-change
    https://www.fs.usda.gov/managing-land/fire
    https://www.nifc.gov/fire-information/statistics

    And at wildfirerisk.org you can find wild fire risk maps (that are downloadable for at no charge).  Those maps are in layered GIS formats for further display or analysis.  Here's one for Sacramento County (https://wildfirerisk.org/explore/0/06/06067/):

    Wildfire risk in Sacramento County California

    When you download the GIS layers you'll also have access to technical reports that describe the form of the data and how it was obtained.

    There is a whole lot of data out there on Federal and State websites.  And best of all:  you don't have to give your email address or otherwise identify yourself to get complete reports and data (unlike firststreet.org).  No salesperson will call or write you.

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    Jim Baldwin
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