Anyway you cut it, it's a prime example of actions having unintended consequences.
The legality of the president's actions are the red herring.
Now that the pundits are trying to blame someone for ^sabotaging^ the census, it's pretty obvious they are just deflecting the blame.
Original Message:
Sent: 06-14-2022 21:09
From: Terry Meyer
Subject: U.S. Census Bureau Releases 2020 Undercount and Overcount Rates - geographic pattern?
Facts:
1. The Supreme court ruled that the census counting could be cut short on Oct. 15 2020, two weeks ahead of the requested (by the Census Bureau) 10/31/2020 shutdown
2. No empirical evidence was produced by anyone that tied the two week early shutdown to any errors in the census. What we have is vague statements by a judge (Koh's) that early shutdown "is likely to produce inaccurate numbers".
3. No empirical evidence has been produced to my knowledge by the Census Bureau, tying the 2 week early shutdown to the under/over counts.
In other words, bringing in the Trump administration's activities about the census has nothing to do with Census errors, aka it is a red herring.
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Terry Meyer
Original Message:
Sent: 06-14-2022 16:00
From: Dennis Sweitzer
Subject: U.S. Census Bureau Releases 2020 Undercount and Overcount Rates - geographic pattern?
No red herring. It was in the news quite a bit at the time of the census (maybe not well reported in Main Stream or Blame Stream Media).
E.g.,
Trump Administration Appeals Order That Bars Census From Ending Early
"...Koh found that the administration's truncated census schedule is likely to produce inaccurate numbers about historically undercounted groups, including people of color and immigrants. That, in turn, would harm the constitutional purpose of the count - to redistribute the seats in the House of Representatives among the states based on their latest populations.
"...The judge also found that the challengers in the lawsuit - a coalition of groups led by the National Urban League - are ultimately likely to succeed in the lawsuit by arguing that the administration's decision was arbitrary and capricious.
Timeline of events:
https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/911960963/how-trump-officials-cut-the-2020-census-short-amid-the-pandemic
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Dennis Sweitzer
Principal Biostatistician
Original Message:
Sent: 06-14-2022 02:47
From: Terry Meyer
Subject: U.S. Census Bureau Releases 2020 Undercount and Overcount Rates - geographic pattern?
By using the actual census document referenced in the NPR article, one finds the estimated under count by minority group. By applying those under and count percentages to the percentage of minority populations in each of the 50 states, there is little correlation to the under count or over count percentages reported by the census by state. In simple language, census errors incurred in racial or ethnic groups do not account for the over or under count by state.
Again, Occam's razor.
The Trump reference is a red herring and a subjective assessment, not one statistically or empirically quantified anywhere.
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Terry Meyer
Original Message:
Sent: 06-13-2022 08:57
From: Dennis Sweitzer
Subject: U.S. Census Bureau Releases 2020 Undercount and Overcount Rates - geographic pattern?
The simplest explanation seems to be the oldest one, namely that the census has always had a pattern of undercounting minorities and overcounting whites (and this time asians), and very much tied to having a stable address at which one could be reached. (So if those wealthy enough to have 2 houses & receive a census form for each, or college students studying away from home, are more likely to be double counted).
Normally a lot of effort goes into reaching out to people who did not respond to household surveys, or were not associated with a household, and many of us will recall how the Trump administration refused to extend the timelines for the Census to carry out that work of doing so (and made more difficult because of COVID). (And also recall that the administration fought to include a citizenship question on the census, which was expected to lower the response). At the time it was pointed out that Trump's decisions regarding the census would more likely hurt red states because of the demographics, and so it seems to have.
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/10/1083732104/2020-census-accuracy-undercount-overcount-data-quality
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Dennis Sweitzer
Principal Biostatistician
Original Message:
Sent: 05-20-2022 08:28
From: David Corliss
Subject: U.S. Census Bureau Releases 2020 Undercount and Overcount Rates - geographic pattern?
The US Census Bureau has released undercount ond overcount rates for the 2020 census. Here is the press release: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/pes-2020-undercount-overcount-by-state.html?utm_campaign=20220519msc20s2ccnwsrs&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery
U.S. Census Bureau Releases 2020 Undercount and Overcount Rates by State and the District of ColumbiaI want to applaud the Census Bureau for this study and getting it out to the public. Well done!!
Also, a question: The states with significant undercounts are Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas. There may be a geographic pattern: apart from Illinois, the remainder are all on the south. Including Illinois, here is the question: did the statitical challenges faced by southern states migrate north to with the population shift known as the Great Migration, which saw many from the South - mostly persons of color, who often face under-represedntation in official statistgics - migrate north, often to Illinois and Michigan? (NB: Michigan did not have a significant undercount but Detroit is reported to be challenging the results, claiming an 8% undercount). Are there demographic / sociological / cultural patterns in the undercount? What research has looked into this question?
Thank you!!
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David J Corliss, PhD
Director, Peace-Work www.peace-work.org
davidjcorliss@peace-work.org
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