I took a lot of economics classes long ago and later worked in a health economics department at a big pharma - Roche. I developed an abiding interest in how economists think about and use statistics. In the Congressional testimony of Kevin Warsh (J.D.), the POTUS nominee for a Federal Reserve Chair, Warsh suggested his preferred method for reporting inflation as part of his "Regime Change" at the FED. I am under the impression that the -7- Federal Reserve governors would all need to vote on a change in the inflation measure, and Warsh would need to persuade the other governors.
Warsh stated he would use "trimmed" statistics
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/22/kevin-warsh-inflation-trend-pce-trump.html
excerpting
"The measures I prefer are looking at things that are called trimmed averages," Warsh added. "We take out all of the tail-risks, all of the one-off items, and we ask ourselves whether the generalized change in prices is having second-order effects on the economy."..
- Bank of America calculated the trimmed value (median) for inflation for several prior years.
excerpting --- in what follows, "PCE " is the "core personal consumption expenditures" index
...And Bank of America's data showed that's occurred in the past.
A trimmed-median inflation gauge tracked by Bank of America was higher than the core PCE in 2019 and 2020. In those years, using a trimmed basket would have encouraged a hawkish stance from the Fed. If trimmed inflation outpaced the core PCE in the future, Bhave said, Warsh would likely have to stand by his view, tying his hands.
"To preserve Fed credibility and avoid optics of cherry picking, Warsh will need to stick with his preferred metrics even when they are outpacing the core," Bhave said.
--------Also There is an inexplicable change in the article from trimmed mean to trimmed median.
There is very harsh criticism of "trimmed" as "alternative reality" , "manipulated" and "dumbed down" from some
https://www.haver.com/articles/fed-chair-nominee-warsh-and-the-dumbing-down-of-inflation
Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh intends to link the Fed's inflation target to median or "trimmed" price measures. These measures are a statistically manipulated version of reported inflation, creating an "alternative reality." They are the 2000s version of Arthur Burns' 1970s core inflation. If implemented, this would be the fourth time inflation measures used for policy have been dumbed down, primarily benefiting the finance sector, as it would create the impression of a lower underlying inflation rate, thus justifying low official rates.
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Chris Barker, Ph.D.
Adjunct Professor of Biostatistics
University of Illinois Chicago, UIC-SPH
www.barkerstats.com---
"In composition you have all the time you want to decide what to say in 15 seconds, in improvisation you have 15 seconds."
-Steve Lacy
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