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TITLE
A not-well-known Lionel Penrose - Ronald Fisher collaboration
SPEAKER
James Hanley, Professor emeritus, Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University
ABSTRACT
Lionel Penrose's two influential articles established that maternal age is a significant factor in the probability that a child will be affected by Down Syndrome, while paternal age (1933) and birth order (1934) are not. I will describe (1) the data, the innovative analyses, the additional methodological article, and the unrecognized-until-now role of Ronald Fisher (2) the challenges we had and the lessons we learned when we tried to reconstruct his 1933 data and apply modern statistical methods (3) our discovery that his main 1934 analysis is based on conditional logistic regression, a technique that statisticians and epidemiologists generally attribute to Prentice & Breslow (1978) and Breslow et al. (1978), while economists attribute it to Nobel laureate McFadden (1973).
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Wendy Martinez
Pronouns: she, they
Senior Mathematical Statistician for Data Science
US Census Bureau
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