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  • 1.  Reliable Source for US Inflation Rates from Early 1900's - Present

    Posted 5 hours ago

    Does anyone have a recommendation for a reliable source for annual US inflation rates from the early 1900's to the present?

    If so, please provide the link or the reference.  

    Any insight appreciated.



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    Brandy Sinco, BS, MA, MS
    Statistician Senior
    Michigan Medicine
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  • 2.  RE: Reliable Source for US Inflation Rates from Early 1900's - Present

    Posted 3 hours ago

    I am not absolutely certain. the BlS would be the first choice.

    I recommend tracking down papers from Dr. Milton Friedman. when I was in graduate school in economics (before biostatistics)

    I recall we read several of his papers on monetary policy, IS/LM and inflation.. Its been a few years, I suspect his papers used and refernced historical information on inflation. I don't have a specific citation. This one looks promising and cites Friedman stating, "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" 

    https://anderseninstitute.org/friedmans-maxim-and-the-theory-and-history-of-inflation/

    I don't have access to this 1992 book chapter by Friedman where he wrote about inflation

    Friedman, Milton. Money Mischief: Episodes in Monetary History. New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1992.

    a large list of ctiations about inflation https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/Inflation.html  

    and And with appropriate caveats to my recollection from  graduate school in econonmics  -before statistics were papers by Barro et al on "long term inflation"

    this NBER paper by Barro seems to have some historical reports for inflation rates from 1960 onward

    https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w5326/w5326.pdf

    This paper suggests that BLS has only been tracking inflation since 1913

    https://www.history.com/articles/inflation-prices-economy-wars-pandemic

    Barro and Ursala wrote about macro economics crises and  inflation since 1870

    https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/2008a_bpea_barro.pdf

    this has downloadable inflation data from 1913 onward 

    https://www.macrotrends.net/2497/historical-inflation-rate-by-year

    https://www.macrotrends.net/2497/historical-inflation-rate-by-year#google_vignette

    NOT -inflation  but the Minneapolis Fed has the CPI from 1800 onward . They seem to be using the historical CPI to approximate the inflation rate

    https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator/consumer-price-index-1800-

    I learned about inflation a long time ago and have forgotten a lot of that - and there may well be better sources to consider

    -Chris



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    Chris Barker, Ph.D.
    Adjunct Professor of Biostatistics
    University of Illinois Chicago, UIC-SPH
    www.barkerstats.com


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    "In composition you have all the time you want to decide what to say in 15 seconds, in improvisation you have 15 seconds."
    -Steve Lacy
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