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  • 1.  Manski

    Posted 09-16-2025 03:12

    For those who have access to a university library, this is in the context of issues about the BLS adjustments 

    Manski, Charles F.. 2015. "Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics: An Appraisal Fifty Years after Morgenstern." Journal of Economic Literature, 53 (3): 631–53.

    Due to copyrights , I"m reluctant to attach the full article. Manski (an economist) discusses the BLS adjustments at length

    Morganstern is also an economist and worked with von Neuman on Game Theory. 

    excerpting

     I illustrate how each arises as the Bureau of Economic
    Analysis periodically revises GDP estimates, the Census Bureau generates household
    income statistics from surveys with nonresponse, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics
    seasonally adjusts employment statistics. I anchor my discussion of communication of
    uncertainty in the contribution of Oskar Morgenstern (1963a), who argued forcefully
    for agency publication of error estimates for official economic statistics. ( JEL B22,
    C82, E23)
    "Perhaps the greatest step forward that can be taken, even at short notice, is to insist
    that economic statistics be only published together with an estimate of their error. Even
    if only roughly estimated, this would produce a wholesome effect. Makers and users
    of economic statistics must both refrain from making claims and demands that cannot
    be supported scientifically. The publication of error estimates would have a profound
    influence on the whole situation."
    Morgenstern (1963a, pp. 304–05



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    Chris Barker, Ph.D.
    Adjunct Professor of Biostatistics
    University of Illinois Chicago, UIC-SPH
    www.barkerstats.com


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    "In composition you have all the time you want to decide what to say in 15 seconds, in improvisation you have 15 seconds."
    -Steve Lacy
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