Excellent comment! The same has happened to me. I have also shied from replying, as it could well be another physhing expedition.
I do not agree, however, that we cannot do anything about it. Individually, as professional statisticians, we can write to the media and provide some Tech information on the correct way to carry out surveys, and about how to interpret their results.
Collectively, the ASA could put out some notice about these issues, for the benefit of the public at large, and of the political process.
Thanks again for your comment. Keep safe./jorge.
Jorge L. Romeu
Adjunct Professor, Syracuse U.
Original Message:
Sent: 10-02-2024 08:34
From: Jerzy Wieczorek
Subject: About Deficient Statistics in Political Polls in the Media
In addition to all the important issues with polling previously mentioned -- I have also experienced a surge of fundraising spam disguised as polls. In the past couple of years, I have responded to a few phone calls or texts which seemed like they might plausibly be from legitimate polling organizations, but which quickly turned into partisan demands to donate to a specific political party.
Is this just my experience, or are others seeing this too?
Even though I am a statistician who works on survey sampling myself, I have stopped responding to nearly all survey and poll invitations. Unless the invitation clearly explains who is running the poll, and I can verify for myself that this is a legitimate organization, it's a waste of my time to participate.
And unfortunately this seems to be out of our hands. No matter how well we statisticians can design our surveys, many people won't trust us if they are used to receiving fake spam "surveys" much more often than real ones.
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Jerzy Wieczorek
Associate Professor
Colby College
Original Message:
Sent: 10-01-2024 14:14
From: Jorge Romeu
Subject: About Deficient Statistics in Political Polls in the Media
You are absolutely right! Drop in survey sample size is very large. But in many cases, there is a good reason for it.
Sometimes, political opponents, the Media and/or celebrities portray very negatively contenders, candidates or political parties, using unfavorable comments or misrepresentations. Such negative portrayal may cause voters who support said candidates or parties to suppress their support, or refuse to participate in surveys, to avoid being "socially marginalized ", or suffer other types of hindrances. These actions produce a distorting effect on survey results, which are based on the total freedom of expression of sample subjects. When absent, this creates a type of bias that is not always accounted for by pollsters, and that we may call the "Violeta Chamorro Effect".
Let's present a real-life example of the statistical effects of said Violeta Chamorro Effect.
In the Nicaraguan presidential campaign of 1990, doña Violeta Chamorro, the widow of a well-known journalist murdered during the Somoza regime, was running against the incumbent Sandinista president Daniel Ortega, who headed the leftist, revolutionary government. The opposition party UNO, a coalition of fourteen groups across all political persuasions, campaigned on improving Nicaragua's economic downfall by supporting free enterprise, and ending the civil war between the government and the Contra Guerrillas. Sandinistas accused doña Violeta of trying to reverse the revolution, restoring capitalism and dependance on the United States.
A poll taken at the time showed three times as many people supporting the Sandinistas (28%) than all of the opposition parties (9%); 59% did not identify with any political party. So, many, including the Ortega government, thought that the Sandinistas would win the election. To most everyone's surprise, however, the election was won by Mrs. Chamorro, who took 55% of the vote, to 41% for Ortega. How and why were the surveys ever so wrong?
Perhaps the social pressure that existed at the time can explain this. Nicaraguan voters were concerned about possible social and political implications of stating that they were supporting opposition UNO, and the Chamorro candidate. So, they lied to the polls thus biasing their results.
Under social pressure, some "undecided" voters may not want to disclose their real preference. But, once inside the voting booth, they may vote differently than expressed in polls. In a very close election such as this one, even if such voters represent 1% of the electorate, they may well decide the election. And surveys will have had very little, if any, real value.
Thanks again for your valuable comment. Keep safe/jorge.
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Jorge L. Romeu
Emeritus SUNY Faculty
Adjunct Professor, Syracuse U.
https://web.cortland.edu/romeu/
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jorge_Romeu
Original Message:
Sent: 10-01-2024 09:03
From: David Hoaglin
Subject: About Deficient Statistics in Political Polls in the Media
Most, if not all, of the political polls have a more serious problem: extremely high rates of nonresponse. In recent years, response rates have been substantially below 10 percent. The polling organizations produce margins of error, though media organizations do not always report them. The polling organizations seldom disclose their response rates.
The problem is that the nonresponse is unlikely to be random. Thus, the estimates calculated from the completed sample are likely to suffer from biases, whose size and direction are unknown. I am deeply skeptical that, even with careful design and sophisticated methods of analysis, the polling organizations can satisfactorily adjust for the biases. I would welcome convincing evidence to the contrary. Meanwhile, I have for some time advised friends and acquaintances to ignore the results of political polls.
It is discouraging that serious journalists, who supposely base their work on facts, have not carefully examined the workings of political polls and reported the findings.
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David C. Hoaglin
Original Message:
Sent: 09-30-2024 01:03
From: Jorge Romeu
Subject: About Deficient Statistics in Political Polls in the Media
Many political polls currently discussed in the media are deficient or incorrect from a statistical standpoint. This is not good for the country, nor for our profession (they give statistics a bad name). We, as professional statisticians, both individually and collectively, should counter and explain such deficiencies. For example:
(25) Post | Feed | LinkedIn
(https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7243766222251528192/)
Keep safe/jorge.
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Jorge L. Romeu
Emeritus SUNY Faculty
Adjunct Professor, Syracuse U.
https://web.cortland.edu/romeu/
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jorge_Romeu
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