It is always important to carefully reflect and Ensure that various, potentially conflicting viewpoints are confronted. That's essential to science. In that sense, there is a lot to say for slow science. That last thing is true in normal times, peace times.
This is not peace time! We are cutting corners on medicinal development, on vaccine development, etc. Policy decisions are taken that impact states, countries, regions, continents, on partial and variable data. Fortunately, there is a huge body of knowledge regarding the mathematical and statistical dynamics of properties. There is knowledge about SARS, MERS, and, further back in time but extremely relevant, the Spanish flu. Study the Philadelphia versus Saint Louis versus Denver response, for example.
The only defense we have is our brainpower right now, knowledge and creativity.We should all roll up our sleeves, study, think, look at matters from different angles. There are examples of statisticians in marketing bureaus that are pushing their regular work to the side and start working on the pandemic. The more, the better, as long as it can be organized properly, of course.
Yes, corners are cut. But if Wald would not have done that in world war II circumstancs, we would not have had sequential trials. If classical clinical trials procedures were followed in the earlier days of the AIDS epidemic, we might not have had cocktail therapy!
The patients with 80% of their lungs incapacitated are not interested whether the malaria antivarial they are getting has been tested for its effectiveness in corona yes or no - they will be ready to try it!
The dynamics of this epidemic are well known. After a slow start, like a diesel train, it becomes high speed rail!
When New York City will be facing North-Italian situations, we will all be happy that people will have been working relentlessly to implement social distancing measures, to work hard towards antivirals, vaccins, and specific/sensitive diagnostics.
These are war-like times. When they are over, we can read and argue in detail about Ioannidis' article. Being cautious and avoid decisions emotionally taken is a good thing. But other than that, let's get back to work, there is plenty to do.
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Geert Molenberghs
Professor
Universiteit Hasselt & Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
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Original Message:
Sent: 03-23-2020 09:23
From: David Stokar
Subject: A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
I'd like to know your professional reactions John Ioannidis' article last week. see link below:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
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David Stokar
[Principal Statistician]
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