ASA Connect

Hi Everyone,

I was working as a data analyst trying to find ways to improve student success. As a STEM major (Biochemistry, Physics, Math, Stats, Engineering) I looked into how well a student in a class, say Algebra 1, affects their grade in Algebra 2. For most colleges and universities, a student that gets a "C" in CLASS101 has met the pre-req for CLASS102. 

What percentage of students taking a class should be able to pass it the first time they take it? ( I found it's between 50% and 70%)

If a student fails a class, what percentage of them retake it?   ( I found it's between 30% and 50%)

If they retake the class, should they do better or worse the 2nd (or more) time around? (Worse) 

Suppose that a student gets a "C" in Algebra 1. What is an acceptable percentage of these students that can take Algebra 2 and "Pass" it? Here, by "Pass", I mean get a grade between A+ to C. ( I found it's between 30% and 45%) 

Suppose that a student gets a B+, B or B-, in Algebra 1. What percentage of these students should "Pass" Algebra 2? ( I found it's between 60% and 70%) 

Suppose that a student places into Algebra 2 and they did not take Algebra 1 at your college/university. Should these students do better/worse/same as the students that took Algebra 1 at your college/university? (They do better than "C" students)

If we assume that students need to take College Algebra to graduate, what percentage of students that start there college careers in Algebra 1 or Algebra 2 should make it to into College Algebra (Not talking about passing, just taking it)? (5% to 15% or 1,555 of 14,110 of Algebra 1 students make it to College Algebra. 17% to 31% or 2,721 of 11,010 make it from Algebra 2 to College Algebra) 

If students need to take at least Calc 1, if not the Calculus sequence, to become a STEM major, what percentage of students starting in Algebra 1, Algebra 2, College Algebra and Pre-Calc should make it there? ( My data says those rates are 2%, 5% to 6%, 2.5% to 15% and 32% to 42%)  

Just think for a moment. If only 2% of Algebra 1 (the most popular math course) students make it to Calc 1, and 5% of Algebra 2 (2nd most popular math class) students make it to Calc 1, what does that say about the math pipeline? and graduating from college in general?  and the ability to get more STEM majors. Keep in mind too that the majority of students in these classes come from disadvantaged schools (like Detroit Public Schools).    
I actually have data that answers what IS happening at a local (to me) college and university. I know what I think these pass rates should be. I want to see what others think.

------------------------------
Andrew Ekstrom

Statistician, Chemist, HPC Abuser;-)
------------------------------

I'm very interested in your research.

Do you have any of the data sources for this research? Is it published yet? I've been trying to come up with ways to have primarily this discussion with the math department and administration at Reading.

It seems your data focuses on college figures where as I am interested in high school. What are the criteria for being categorized as Algebra 1 and Algebra 2 at the college level vs College Algebra? What additional information is available about those that pursue STEM careers in this particular study? 

In February I learned that roughly 13% ( about 125 total students) of the class of 2020 at Reading was enrolled in a 9th grade course that would lead to anything more than Algebra 1, Algebra 2 and Geometry before graduating high school. In other words 87% of the students would never take anything higher than Geometry before graduation. In response, I proposed a bell schedule that would allow that to increase to completion of Calc AB before graduation for even a C math student that was interested in pursuing a STEM or math related career. My idea was received luck-warmly and I was instructed to hold off until the fall to discuss it further.

This research sounds like it could be helpful and I'd love to know more.

------------------------------
Flora Quevedo
Math Teacher
Reading High School
------------------------------

Original Message:
Sent: 07-27-2017 00:22
From: Andrew Ekstrom
Subject: Where did all the STEM majors go?

Hi Everyone,

I was working as a data analyst trying to find ways to improve student success. As a STEM major (Biochemistry, Physics, Math, Stats, Engineering) I looked into how well a student in a class, say Algebra 1, affects their grade in Algebra 2. For most colleges and universities, a student that gets a "C" in CLASS101 has met the pre-req for CLASS102.

What percentage of students taking a class should be able to pass it the first time they take it? ( I found it's between 50% and 70%)

If a student fails a class, what percentage of them retake it?   ( I found it's between 30% and 50%)

If they retake the class, should they do better or worse the 2nd (or more) time around? (Worse)

Suppose that a student gets a "C" in Algebra 1. What is an acceptable percentage of these students that can take Algebra 2 and "Pass" it? Here, by "Pass", I mean get a grade between A+ to C. ( I found it's between 30% and 45%)

Suppose that a student gets a B+, B or B-, in Algebra 1. What percentage of these students should "Pass" Algebra 2? ( I found it's between 60% and 70%)

Suppose that a student places into Algebra 2 and they did not take Algebra 1 at your college/university. Should these students do better/worse/same as the students that took Algebra 1 at your college/university? (They do better than "C" students)

If we assume that students need to take College Algebra to graduate, what percentage of students that start there college careers in Algebra 1 or Algebra 2 should make it to into College Algebra (Not talking about passing, just taking it)? (5% to 15% or 1,555 of 14,110 of Algebra 1 students make it to College Algebra. 17% to 31% or 2,721 of 11,010 make it from Algebra 2 to College Algebra)

If students need to take at least Calc 1, if not the Calculus sequence, to become a STEM major, what percentage of students starting in Algebra 1, Algebra 2, College Algebra and Pre-Calc should make it there? ( My data says those rates are 2%, 5% to 6%, 2.5% to 15% and 32% to 42%)

Just think for a moment. If only 2% of Algebra 1 (the most popular math course) students make it to Calc 1, and 5% of Algebra 2 (2nd most popular math class) students make it to Calc 1, what does that say about the math pipeline? and graduating from college in general?  and the ability to get more STEM majors. Keep in mind too that the majority of students in these classes come from disadvantaged schools (like Detroit Public Schools).
I actually have data that answers what IS happening at a local (to me) college and university. I know what I think these pass rates should be. I want to see what others think.

------------------------------
Andrew Ekstrom

Statistician, Chemist, HPC Abuser;-)
------------------------------

I can post the summary data. I'm going to try and publish sooner than later.

------------------------------
Andrew Ekstrom

Statistician, Chemist, HPC Abuser;-)
------------------------------

Original Message:
Sent: 07-28-2017 10:49
From: Flora Quevedo
Subject: Where did all the STEM majors go?

I'm very interested in your research.

Do you have any of the data sources for this research? Is it published yet? I've been trying to come up with ways to have primarily this discussion with the math department and administration at Reading.

It seems your data focuses on college figures where as I am interested in high school. What are the criteria for being categorized as Algebra 1 and Algebra 2 at the college level vs College Algebra? What additional information is available about those that pursue STEM careers in this particular study?

In February I learned that roughly 13% ( about 125 total students) of the class of 2020 at Reading was enrolled in a 9th grade course that would lead to anything more than Algebra 1, Algebra 2 and Geometry before graduating high school. In other words 87% of the students would never take anything higher than Geometry before graduation. In response, I proposed a bell schedule that would allow that to increase to completion of Calc AB before graduation for even a C math student that was interested in pursuing a STEM or math related career. My idea was received luck-warmly and I was instructed to hold off until the fall to discuss it further.

This research sounds like it could be helpful and I'd love to know more.

------------------------------
Flora Quevedo
Math Teacher
Reading High School

Original Message:
Sent: 07-27-2017 00:22
From: Andrew Ekstrom
Subject: Where did all the STEM majors go?

Hi Everyone,

I was working as a data analyst trying to find ways to improve student success. As a STEM major (Biochemistry, Physics, Math, Stats, Engineering) I looked into how well a student in a class, say Algebra 1, affects their grade in Algebra 2. For most colleges and universities, a student that gets a "C" in CLASS101 has met the pre-req for CLASS102.

What percentage of students taking a class should be able to pass it the first time they take it? ( I found it's between 50% and 70%)

If a student fails a class, what percentage of them retake it?   ( I found it's between 30% and 50%)

If they retake the class, should they do better or worse the 2nd (or more) time around? (Worse)

Suppose that a student gets a "C" in Algebra 1. What is an acceptable percentage of these students that can take Algebra 2 and "Pass" it? Here, by "Pass", I mean get a grade between A+ to C. ( I found it's between 30% and 45%)

Suppose that a student gets a B+, B or B-, in Algebra 1. What percentage of these students should "Pass" Algebra 2? ( I found it's between 60% and 70%)

Suppose that a student places into Algebra 2 and they did not take Algebra 1 at your college/university. Should these students do better/worse/same as the students that took Algebra 1 at your college/university? (They do better than "C" students)

If we assume that students need to take College Algebra to graduate, what percentage of students that start there college careers in Algebra 1 or Algebra 2 should make it to into College Algebra (Not talking about passing, just taking it)? (5% to 15% or 1,555 of 14,110 of Algebra 1 students make it to College Algebra. 17% to 31% or 2,721 of 11,010 make it from Algebra 2 to College Algebra)

If students need to take at least Calc 1, if not the Calculus sequence, to become a STEM major, what percentage of students starting in Algebra 1, Algebra 2, College Algebra and Pre-Calc should make it there? ( My data says those rates are 2%, 5% to 6%, 2.5% to 15% and 32% to 42%)

Just think for a moment. If only 2% of Algebra 1 (the most popular math course) students make it to Calc 1, and 5% of Algebra 2 (2nd most popular math class) students make it to Calc 1, what does that say about the math pipeline? and graduating from college in general?  and the ability to get more STEM majors. Keep in mind too that the majority of students in these classes come from disadvantaged schools (like Detroit Public Schools).
I actually have data that answers what IS happening at a local (to me) college and university. I know what I think these pass rates should be. I want to see what others think.

------------------------------
Andrew Ekstrom

Statistician, Chemist, HPC Abuser;-)
------------------------------

​I suspect the results might depend strongly on the level and selectivity of the college or university involved.

------------------------------
Emil M Friedman, PhD
emilfriedman@gmail.com
http://www.statisticalconsulting.org
------------------------------

Original Message:
Sent: 07-27-2017 00:22
From: Andrew Ekstrom
Subject: Where did all the STEM majors go?

Hi Everyone,

I was working as a data analyst trying to find ways to improve student success. As a STEM major (Biochemistry, Physics, Math, Stats, Engineering) I looked into how well a student in a class, say Algebra 1, affects their grade in Algebra 2. For most colleges and universities, a student that gets a "C" in CLASS101 has met the pre-req for CLASS102.

What percentage of students taking a class should be able to pass it the first time they take it? ( I found it's between 50% and 70%)

If a student fails a class, what percentage of them retake it?   ( I found it's between 30% and 50%)

If they retake the class, should they do better or worse the 2nd (or more) time around? (Worse)

Suppose that a student gets a "C" in Algebra 1. What is an acceptable percentage of these students that can take Algebra 2 and "Pass" it? Here, by "Pass", I mean get a grade between A+ to C. ( I found it's between 30% and 45%)

Suppose that a student gets a B+, B or B-, in Algebra 1. What percentage of these students should "Pass" Algebra 2? ( I found it's between 60% and 70%)

Suppose that a student places into Algebra 2 and they did not take Algebra 1 at your college/university. Should these students do better/worse/same as the students that took Algebra 1 at your college/university? (They do better than "C" students)

If we assume that students need to take College Algebra to graduate, what percentage of students that start there college careers in Algebra 1 or Algebra 2 should make it to into College Algebra (Not talking about passing, just taking it)? (5% to 15% or 1,555 of 14,110 of Algebra 1 students make it to College Algebra. 17% to 31% or 2,721 of 11,010 make it from Algebra 2 to College Algebra)

If students need to take at least Calc 1, if not the Calculus sequence, to become a STEM major, what percentage of students starting in Algebra 1, Algebra 2, College Algebra and Pre-Calc should make it there? ( My data says those rates are 2%, 5% to 6%, 2.5% to 15% and 32% to 42%)

Just think for a moment. If only 2% of Algebra 1 (the most popular math course) students make it to Calc 1, and 5% of Algebra 2 (2nd most popular math class) students make it to Calc 1, what does that say about the math pipeline? and graduating from college in general?  and the ability to get more STEM majors. Keep in mind too that the majority of students in these classes come from disadvantaged schools (like Detroit Public Schools).
I actually have data that answers what IS happening at a local (to me) college and university. I know what I think these pass rates should be. I want to see what others think.

------------------------------
Andrew Ekstrom

Statistician, Chemist, HPC Abuser;-)
------------------------------

There are many consistencies between the college and the university.

For example, students that minimally meet pre-reqs have a hard time passing a class. Students retaking a class tend to do worse.

 "Logic" about what grades mean can be wrong. As in sometimes an A- student does worse in the next class than a B- student. 

The differences show up in the distribution of students in the math classes and the numbers of students.

------------------------------
Andrew Ekstrom

Statistician, Chemist, HPC Abuser;-)
------------------------------

Original Message:
Sent: 08-02-2017 09:47
From: Emil Friedman
Subject: Where did all the STEM majors go?

​I suspect the results might depend strongly on the level and selectivity of the college or university involved.

------------------------------
Emil M Friedman, PhD
emilfriedman@gmail.com
http://www.statisticalconsulting.org

Original Message:
Sent: 07-27-2017 00:22
From: Andrew Ekstrom
Subject: Where did all the STEM majors go?

Hi Everyone,

I was working as a data analyst trying to find ways to improve student success. As a STEM major (Biochemistry, Physics, Math, Stats, Engineering) I looked into how well a student in a class, say Algebra 1, affects their grade in Algebra 2. For most colleges and universities, a student that gets a "C" in CLASS101 has met the pre-req for CLASS102.

What percentage of students taking a class should be able to pass it the first time they take it? ( I found it's between 50% and 70%)

If a student fails a class, what percentage of them retake it?   ( I found it's between 30% and 50%)

If they retake the class, should they do better or worse the 2nd (or more) time around? (Worse)

Suppose that a student gets a "C" in Algebra 1. What is an acceptable percentage of these students that can take Algebra 2 and "Pass" it? Here, by "Pass", I mean get a grade between A+ to C. ( I found it's between 30% and 45%)

Suppose that a student gets a B+, B or B-, in Algebra 1. What percentage of these students should "Pass" Algebra 2? ( I found it's between 60% and 70%)

Suppose that a student places into Algebra 2 and they did not take Algebra 1 at your college/university. Should these students do better/worse/same as the students that took Algebra 1 at your college/university? (They do better than "C" students)

If we assume that students need to take College Algebra to graduate, what percentage of students that start there college careers in Algebra 1 or Algebra 2 should make it to into College Algebra (Not talking about passing, just taking it)? (5% to 15% or 1,555 of 14,110 of Algebra 1 students make it to College Algebra. 17% to 31% or 2,721 of 11,010 make it from Algebra 2 to College Algebra)

If students need to take at least Calc 1, if not the Calculus sequence, to become a STEM major, what percentage of students starting in Algebra 1, Algebra 2, College Algebra and Pre-Calc should make it there? ( My data says those rates are 2%, 5% to 6%, 2.5% to 15% and 32% to 42%)

Just think for a moment. If only 2% of Algebra 1 (the most popular math course) students make it to Calc 1, and 5% of Algebra 2 (2nd most popular math class) students make it to Calc 1, what does that say about the math pipeline? and graduating from college in general?  and the ability to get more STEM majors. Keep in mind too that the majority of students in these classes come from disadvantaged schools (like Detroit Public Schools).
I actually have data that answers what IS happening at a local (to me) college and university. I know what I think these pass rates should be. I want to see what others think.

------------------------------
Andrew Ekstrom

Statistician, Chemist, HPC Abuser;-)
------------------------------