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  • 1.  Top statistical issues seen in (non-statistics) grant proposals

    Posted 07-22-2016 14:27

    Dear Statistical Community,

    A recent survey of NIH reviewers revealed this top concern: "Having more experienced reviewers especially those with statistical, biostatistical, or clinical expertise." In an effort to help both proposals reviewers and applicants, the ASA would like to compile a list of top statistical issues seen in (non-statistics) proposals. We’d especially like to focus on biomedical research proposals but input on other proposals is also welcome.

    Please send what you see as the top statistical issues seen in proposals to me by August 8. You can also frame it as statistical advice for proposals.

    Let us also encourage you to consider becoming a reviewer, if you aren't already. Here are some relevant resources:

    Thank you,

    Steve

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    Steve Pierson
    Director of Science Policy
    American Statistical Association
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  • 2.  RE: Top statistical issues seen in (non-statistics) grant proposals

    Posted 07-25-2016 10:41

    Good topic.  Here are a couple observations from my experience working with PI's as they develop their grant proposals:

    1) Poorly defined hypotheses: I've seen many "Aims" and "Hypotheses" where it was difficult to determine the primary exposure or group comparison being tested and/or the primary outcome variable (not just the anticipated distribution of the variable – I mean, I couldn’t even tell what the primary outcome was, period).

    2) Insufficiently described "primary analysis" for Aim 1: certainly, it is unreasonable to expect the PI to lay out every single possible analysis that might be considered within their grant’s data, but I've seen several analysis plans with no substance at all - clearly someone who glossed over the very principle.  If someone merely says “Statistical analysis will be performed using standard methods in MedCalc software” (yes, I’ve seen this as a “statistical analysis plan” before!) that should be instant rejection. They have to at least be able to name the primary hypothesis’ testing method.

    3) Insufficiently described power and sample size calculations: I think we statisticians all agree that power calculations are a maddening topic to describe to the layperson (plus, they already have lots of built-in imprecision), so I am somewhat sympathetic here.  However, every quarter someone brings me a grant proposal with a nonsense power calculation entirely plucked from thin air (i.e. "Collection of 20 samples will have sufficient statistical power to show differences between groups" with no mention of the hypothesized effect size, measure of variability, the test being used, etc).

    In the interest of being more constructive - here are a few things that I would recommend to any PI:

    1. Meet with a statistician for help, and then tell them to help you with the following items:
    2. Make sure your primary hypothesis CLEARLY IDENTIFIES the primary outcome variable.
    3. Make sure it is clear whether the primary outcome is a continuous variable, categorical variable, or a time-to-event (survival) variable.
    4. Make sure it is clear what the comparison groups / exposure variable is
    5. Make sure the analysis plan identifies the specific statistical method which will be used to test the primary hypothesis.
    6. Make sure the description of your power and sample size calculation names ALL of the necessary elements: the statistical test, anticipated effect size, estimates of variability, significance level, etc.

    This is a very short list, and admittedly does not cover all possible errors (for example, people who name a test that is irrelevant or incorrect – such as a PI that references a “t-test” or “ANOVA” when the named test is not suitable for their primary question – but I think that’s outside the scope of what can be covered in a guide for grant writers).

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    Andrew D. Althouse, PhD
    Supervisor of Statistical Projects
    UPMC Heart & Vascular Institute
    Presbyterian Hospital, Office C701
    Phone: 412-802-6811
    Email: althousead@upmc.edu



  • 3.  RE: Top statistical issues seen in (non-statistics) grant proposals

    Posted 07-26-2016 10:32

    As someone coming from a physical science background, I know most academic scientists learn very little, if anything, about statistics. I've had paper rejected in chemistry journals because I used multiple linear regression to analyze a fractional factorial design and CCD response surface. "As a claimed statistician, you should know statistics doesn't allow you to change more than one thing at a time!" 

    I know the entire world of science would benefit from the knowledge of Definitive Screening Designs, Optimal Mixture Designs and Optimal Split Plots. Perhaps writing a couple pages on the benefits and validity of each type of design and their application to chemistry, biology and physics experiments would help. 

    I "failed" an ecology class when every time we had a paper to read and write a report about, I spent the entire report explaining why the design and the analysis of the experiment was wrong. I made footnotes and references down to the page too. Some papers were so poorly designed and analyzed that when I got the data and did a proper analysis, none of the claims in the paper were supported. An example of the was analyzing a split plot experiment as 6 simple Linear regression models instead of 1 split plot model or even one multiple regression model. Things got so bad, that the prof even came out and said, "Even though you think the data is poorly analyzed and the design is rubbish, I don't care. What valuable insights can we get from this paper?" 

    I asked the advisor if I could take Design and Analysis of Experiments as an elective for my MS Env Sci degree. The advisor told me, "If you don't know how to design an experiment by now, you don't belong here." When I told him about the topics and material it covers, he claimed the book and prof were wrong and that stats was non-sense. When I mentioned that the methods he used for groundwater sampling and hydrogeology were based upon an optimal response surface method, he told me I was wrong. When he read the reference for his method, he knew the reference was wrong too. 

    I could go on about who poorly educated most scientists are when it comes to statistics. But, that is already part of the main discussion here. I just hope ASA will do something about it. 

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    Andrew Ekstrom

    Statistician, Chemist, HPC Abuser;-)



  • 4.  RE: Top statistical issues seen in (non-statistics) grant proposals

    Posted 07-27-2016 12:24
    Analysis should begin with a discussion about why any data are missing.

    What makes you sure that the missing data were MCAR or MAR?