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FY18 Statistical Agency Budget Developments

By Steve Pierson posted 03-16-2017 14:37

  
The Trump Administration released March 16, 2017 its FY18 budget outline [and its full budget May 23.] Titled America First A Budget Blueprint to Make America Great Again, the document covers mostly topline numbers, including budget levels for example for NIH but not NSF. I will be filling in information as I become aware of it. This blog entry will track FY18 appropriations developments for the federal statistical agencies and so will be updated accordingly. (See update log below.) To receive notifications of updates, follow ASA Science Policy on Twitter: @ASA_SciPol. 

Because this blog entry covers everything from the budget request to the final determination of the budget, it can become quite long. To help with that, I'll try to partition the blog entry:

See also  FY19 Statistical Agency Budget DevelopmentsFY19 NIH, NSF, AHRQ, & FDA Budget Developments, FY18 NIH, NSF, AHRQ, and FDA Budget DevelopmentsFY17 Statistical Agency Budget Developments, and the July Amstat News article, FY17 Federal Budget Resolved; Trump’s FY18 Budget Request Released.
   

       

FY18

     Agency      FY12     FY13    FY14    FY15     FY16   FY17   Request5    % change
vs. FY17 
  House    Senate     Final   % change 
BEA 92.2  89.8  95.4  96.3  105.1 103.5 97.08 -6.1 96.8**8 99.0**8 99 -4.6%
BJS 41.3  41.3  45  41 41  45.5 41 -10 44.5** 45.5** 48 5.5%
BLS 609  577.2  592.2  592.2  609.0 609.0 607.8 -0.2 609** 609** 612 0.5%
BTS1 25  26  26  26  26 26 26 0 NA NA NA 0
Census7 9422  859.32 945   1088  1370 1470 1494 1.6 1507** 1521** 2814 93%
EIA 105  99.5  117  117  122 122 118 -3.3 118** 122** 125 2.5%
ERS4 85.9  79.1  85.8  85.4  85.4 86.8 76.7 -11.6 76.8* 86.8** 86.8 0
NASS4 167.8  175.8  170.4  172.4  168.4  171.2 185.7 8.5 183.8* 191.7** 191.7 12%
NCES3 247  225.9  235.1  232 2746  272.5 2716 -0.6 272.5**6 270.0**6 258.5 0%
NCSES 43.3  41.6 47   58.3  58.3 59.7 56.9 -5.3 & & &
NCHS5 159 153.8 155.4  155.4  160.4 160.4 155.0 -3.4 155.4** 160.4** 160.4 0
ORES 29  27.5  26.9 29  25.9  25 31 24 & & &
SOI 38.7  34.9 37.1  36.8 37.8  34.3 33.6 -2 & & &

 

Levels in millions of dollars; Agency abbreviations listed below; NCES is for Statistics and Assessment (not NAGB or SLDS)
Latest Action: *Subcommittee mark-up; **Committee mark-up; ***Passed the Floor
&Not available because of lack of sufficient detail in summary, bill or conference report; 
NATD (or blank): No Action To Date
1The BTS is funded through the Highway Trust Fund with levels determined by the authorizing committees. 
2The  FY12 and FY13 levels include funds from the Working Capital Fund (WCF), as mandated by Congress. These level may differ than what I report in the "final" column of the FY12 and FY13 columns of other blog entries.
3The NCES budget level includes both statistics and assessment, but not Salary and Expenses for years FY12-FY15. The levels do not include budget for National Assessment Governing Board. 
4ERS and NASS went through budget revisions in FY15. The FY12, FY13, and FY14 levels have been adjusted to be comparable to the FY15 and FY16 levels. The actual FY12, FY13, and FY14 levels for ERS and NASS are $78.2 M, $71.4 M, $78.1 M and $158.6 M, $166.6 M, and $161.2 M, respectively
5The NCHS budget went through an realignment from FY14 to FY15 to account for NCHS having to include business support services provided by the CDC. The comparable FY12, FY13, FY14 and FY15 levels are $138.7 million, 138.7, 140, and 140 respectively.
6The FY16, FY17, and FY18 budget levels of NCES include "funds for salaries and expenses of $13, $14, and $14 million..., respectively, that are displayed in the Budget Appendix under the Institute of Education Sciences (IES). In addition, NCES manages the IES grant program for the State Longitudinal Data System which is funded at $35, $32, and $32 million in 2016, 2017, and 2018, respectively, and the EDFacts Initiative which is funded at $11 million in 2016, 2017, and 2018." The levels do not include budget for National Assessment Governing Board. 
7The Census budget levels here omit about $30 million in mandatory funding. 
8The administration proposes the dissolving of the Economics and Statistics Administration (ESA). The House appropriations committee accepted the proposal. The Senate does not object to the dissolution of ESA but, before approving, first wants to see a reprogramming package. 


FY18 Budget Request Highlights

  • Specific Agencies
    • BLS: FY18 budget document
      1. Labor Force Statistics – The Budget request of $268,754,000, which is $2,207,000 above the FY 2017 Full Year CR level, and 518 FTE, will provide funds to support the production, analysis, and publication of data on payroll employment and the civilian labor force, employment and unemployment, persons not in the labor force, labor demand and turnover, wages, hours, earnings, occupational employment, time use, and employment projections. In FY 2018, for example, the Current Population Survey may remove student dorms from the survey sample.
      2. Prices and Cost of Living – The Budget request of $209,863,000, which is $494,000 below the FY 2017 Full Year CR level, and 1,025 FTE, will provide funds to support the production, analysis, and publication of a wide variety of information on price changes in the U.S. economy, specifically the CPI, the Producer Price Index (PPI), the U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes from the International Price Program (IPP), and data from the CE Survey. In FY 2018, the BLS will slow efforts to modernize systems supporting the PPI and IPP, as well as the redesign of the CE Survey.
      3. Compensation and Working Conditions – The Budget request of $82,880,000, which is $1,464,000 below the FY 2017 Full Year CR level, and 359 FTE, will provide funds to support the production, analysis, and publication of a diverse set of measures of employee compensation; work stoppages statistics; and the compilation of data on work-related injuries, illnesses, and fatalities. In FY 2018, the National Compensation Survey will not publish detailed information on health plan provisions. This currently is the only federal source of this type of information in the benefits market.
      4. Productivity and Technology – The Budget request of $10,798,000, which is $176,000 below the FY 2017 Full Year CR level, and 56 FTE, will provide funds to support the production, analysis, and publication of data on productivity trends in the U.S. economy, as well as in major sectors and individual industries; and the examination of the factors underlying productivity growth.
      5. Executive Direction and Staffing Services – The Budget request of $35,547,000, which is $73,000 below the FY 2017 Full Year CR level, and 186 FTE, will provide funds to support BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS BLS - 10 agency-wide policy and management direction, and centralized program support activities, such as data dissemination, field operations, the Internet Data Collection Facility, and statistical methods research necessary to produce and release statistical and research output in a reliable, secure, timely, and effective manner.
    • ERS and NASS: 2018 USDA Budget Explanatory Notes for Committee on Appropriations
      • NASS numbers include " Census of Agriculture of $42, $42, and $64 million in 2016, 2017, and 2018, respectively", which means $7.5 million cut for NASS's other programs. 
      • ERS document:
        1. "An increase of $902,000 for pay costs ($253,000 for annualization of the 2017 pay increase and $649,000 for the 2018 pay increase)."
        2. "An increase of $350,000 for the Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) ($6,650,000 available in 2017)."
        3. "A decrease of $1,500,000 and 2 staff years for Research Innovation for Improving Policy Effectiveness ($3,500,000 and 8 staff years available in 2017)."
        4. "A decrease of $1,000,000 and 1 staff year for Increasing Drought Resilience ($1,488,000 and 4 staff years available in 2017)."
        5. "A decrease of $1,500,000 and 2 staff years for Bioenergy/Renewable Energy ($2,500,000 and 6 staff years available in 2017."
        6. "A decrease of $2,250,000 for the Consumer Data Information Program ($5,966,000 available in 2017)."
        7. "A decrease of $1,000,000 and 6 staff years for International Activities ($2,819,000 and 16 staff years available in 2017)."
        8. "A decrease of $1,000,000 for Cooperative Agreements and Grants ($2,905,000 available in 2017)."
        9. "A decrease of $657,000 and 4 staff years for Diet Quality including the Role of Food Access ($657,000 and 4 staff years available in 2017)."
        10. "A decrease of $324,000 and 2 staff years for Commodity Outlook Programs ($5,717,000 and 31 staff years available in 2017)."
        11. "A decrease of $200,000 and 1 staff year for Local Foods ($200,000 and 1 staff year available in 2017)."
        12. "A decrease of $342,000 for Decentralized GSA rent and DHS security payments ($6,535,000 available in 2017)."
      • FY18 NASS document:
        1. A decrease of $4,187,000 for Agricultural Estimates Programs ($95,558,000 available in 2017). NASS is streamlining the Agricultural Estimate program by reducing the sample sizes for the programs listed below. As consequence, fewer estimates (i.e. reducing the number of published states by commodity) will meet the publication standards
        2. A decrease of $600,000 for a Geospatial Improvement Initiative ($800,000 available in 2017).
        3. A decrease of $728,000 for rent ($5,251,000 available in 2017).
      • From "Skinny" Budget: "Reduces funding for USDA’s statistical capabilities, while maintaining core Departmental analytical functions, such as the funding necessary to complete the Census of Agriculture." 
    • Census: Congressional Budget Justification
      • From "Skinny" Budget: "Provides $1.5 billion, an increase of more than $100 million [over FY16], for the U.S. Census Bureau to continue preparations for the 2020 Decennial Census.  This additional funding prioritizes fundamental investments in information technology and field infrastructure, which would allow the bureau to more effectively administer the 2020 Decennial Census." 
      • From "Skinny" Budget: "The Budget prioritizes and protects investments in core Government functions such as preparing for the 2020 Decennial Census, providing the observational infrastructure and staff necessary to produce timely and accurate weather forecasts, supporting the Government’s role in managing marine resources and ocean and coastal navigation, and enforcing laws that promote fair and secure trade."  from "Skinny Budget"
    • BEA: Congressional Budget Justification
      • "Inflationary adjustments of $2.0 million to fund the estimated 2018 Federal pay raise of 1.9 percent and provide for inflationary increases for non-labor activities, including service contracts, utilities, and rent.
      • "Consolidation of the Economics and Statistics Administration (ESA), in an effort to reduce duplication, streamline operations, and realize budget efficiency, ESA will cease operations as a bureau within DOC. The Under Secretary for Economic Affairs will reside in the Office of the Secretary and will continue to be a key advisor to the Secretary in providing analysis and guidance on matters related to economic policy.
      • "BEA programmatic reductions which include efforts to separately measure the impact of small businesses on the U.S. economy, the incorporation of enhanced healthcare measures into the core GDP accounts, and trade in services data for dynamic industries of the U.S. economy, including R&D; intellectual property; and financial, health, and IT services. Careful consideration was given to those initiatives that could be reduced with minimal impact on BEA’s core programs."
      • From "Skinny" Budget: "Consolidates the mission, policy support, and administrative functions of the Economics and Statistics Administration within the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Department of Commerce’s Office of the Secretary." 
    • BJS; little available so far from OJP FY18 budget document
    • For the EIA, the budget justification says that the proposed cut for FY18 would mean EIA "it would not be able to keep pace in addressing key emerging energy issues, including:
      • Data and analysis of important regional issues, such as electricity transmission infrastructure and modernization initiatives, the economics of existing nuclear generators, and more granular petroleum supply information, including through an ongoing collaboration with oil and natural gas producing states as part of the National Oil and Gas Gateway
      • More timely, relevant energy consumption information through the use of alternative data collection modes to increase operational efficiency and integrate new data such as “behind the meter” measurements of electricity consumption by individual devices and appliances from a representative sample of homes and businesses
      • Development of new models for global hydrocarbon supply and international electricity markets to account for the growing importance of foreign markets, including export markets for natural gas, in determining U.S. energy market conditions."
    • NCHS FY18 budget document:
      • CDC’s FY 2018 request of $155,000,000 for health statistics, including $142,968,000 in PHS Evaluation Transfer, is $5,092,000 below the FY 2017 Annualized CR level. At a reduced capacity, the platform will continue to provide information on emerging issues of public health importance for CDC and HHS, such as the rise in drug overdose deaths. As the nation’s health statistics agency, the collection of information is supported by numerous federal partners working in collaboration to support data infrastructure to maximize the efficient use of taxpayer dollars and reduce duplication.  These investments have resulted in an integrated data strategy that provides broader content and consistency. At the FY 2018 requested level, CDC will:
        • Continue to focus on providing quality information that can be used for evidence based policymaking by maintaining existing health data systems and postponing modernization activities, targeting investments to track progress in major health objectives for the nation.
        • Maintain the core data systems used by CDC and HHS to continue to monitor changes in the healthcare system and limit content to the most critical public health issues.
        • Target efforts to continue access to public use files and restricted microdata to the extent possible.
        • Return survey sample size to baseline which permits the production of estimates on key health indicators at the national level.
        • Safeguard investments and minimize duplication by increasing coordination and integration of data collection activities

Reports on FY18 request:

Reports on FY18 Congressional Developments:

Updates (and sources):

  1. America First A Budget Blueprint to Make America Great Again, 3/16/17
  2. FY18 numbers inserted from leaked White House FY18 budget spreadsheet, 5/21/17
  3. Strengthening Federal Statistics chapter of FY18 Analytical Perspectives
  4. House CJS levels, 6/28/17 House CJS report language 
  5. House E&W approps draft bill for EIA, 6/28/17.
  6. House Ag approps draft bill for NASS/ERS, 6/28/17
  7. House LHHS approps draft bill for BLS, 7/12/17
  8. House LHHS report language for NCHS, NCES, 7/18/17
  9. Senate Ag draft bill for ERS/NASS, 7/21/17.
  10. Senate CJS draft bill press releasefor Census, 7/26/17
  11. Senate LHHS report language, 9/8/17, for BLS, NCES, NCHS
  12. Senate E&W bill for EIA 
  13. March 21 Omnibus
    1. Divsion A for ERS and NASS
    2. Div B for BEA, Census, BJS
    3. Div D for EIA
    4. Div H for BLS, NCES, & NCHS
See also: 
Statistical Agency abbreviations
 BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis
BJS Bureau of Justice Statistics
BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics
BTS Bureau of Transportation Statistics 
ERS Economic Research Service
EIA Energy Information Administration
NASS National Agricultural Statistics Service
NCES National Center for Education Statistics 
NCHS National Center for Health Statistics
NCSES National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics, NSF
ORES Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, SSA
SOI Statistics of Income Division, IRS

See other ASA Science Policy blog entries. For ASA science policy updates, follow @ASA_SciPol on Twitter. 



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