Join us for the January CCASA luncheon!
We are pleased to announce that our speaker will be Jim Guszcza, PhD,
FCAS, MAAA, National Predictive Analytics Lead in the Deloitte
Actuarial, Risk, and Analytics practice.
Jim Guszcza's presentation is entitled "Applications of Multilevel/Hierarchical Models in Actuarial Science".
Abstract:
The past decade has seen a vigorous embrace of statistical and machine
learning techniques within the actuarial community. Classic examples of
actuarial statistical modeling include the use of Generalized Linear
Models to rate personal insurance along multiple dimensions;
constructing credit and non-credit scoring models to refine
pricing/underwriting business processes; and using statistical modeling
to more rigorously forecast aggregate losses for planning and capital
allocation purposes. While Generalized Linear Models are now solidly
entrenched in actuarial practice, comparatively little attention has
been given to the Multilevel/Hierarchical modeling framework. This talk
will sketch some classic actuarial modeling problems that can benefit
from the application of Multilevel/Hierarchical models. Indeed,
Multilevel/Hierarchical models can be viewed as an extension of a
cornerstone of actuarial science known as credibility theory.
Mainstream statistical notions such as "borrowing strength", "pooling",
and "shrinkage" all have analogs in the actuarial credibility
vernacular. After sketching the relevant history and making the
conceptual connections, a detailed case study will be presented to
illustrate the power of Multilevel/Hierarchical models in actuarial
work.
Lunch is $30 for CCASA members, $35 for non-members. Non-members, join
CCASA for a year for only $15 and get the discount plus all of the other
benefits of membership!
As usual, the Lucile Derrick Fund will purchase a limited number of
tickets for student members of CCASA who wish to attend. If you are a
student and would like to take advantage of this offer, please register
online below, and contact Gerald Funk, expressing your interest
708-957-1923 or gfunk@luc.edu
Reduced fee parking available at EBC with validation.
Please register for the luncheon by Friday January 20, 2012.
Click the the link below to register for the luncheon!