February

Luncheon Announcement
Noon to 1:30PM
TUESDAY February 17th, 2009
The East Bank Club
500 N Kingsbury, Chicago 60610

 

 

Please join us for another exciting talk in the CCASA's 2008-2009 Luncheon program!

Our February speaker is Krishnan Saranthan, who is the Managing Director for Enterprise Optimization at United Airlines. In this role, he leads a centralized analytics group of over 50 people that leverages capabilities in statistical modeling, optimization, and data mining to create bottom line value for the company. He works closely with IT to create decision support tools that support critical business processes. He has considerable experience in the Pricing and Revenue Management and is known for his expertise in this area. Prior to his current role, he served as the Manager for Revenue Management systems and Manager of Pricing. He has an MBA in Finance and Strategy from Northwestern University, a Master's degree in Transportation Engineering from the University of Missouri at Columbia, and a Bachelor's degree in Civil Engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Madras, India.

His talk is entitled: The role of Decision Sciences in Maximizing United's bottom line.

Abstract:

 

 

The presentation will focus on the role played by the Enterprise Optimization group in maximizing United's bottom line. Enterprise Optimization is a centralized analytics group, which leverages core skills in mathematical modeling/optimization and in-depth knowledge of the airline domain to create sustainable value for the company. In 2008, the total value generated by this group exceeded $100 million. Specific case studies will be presented to demonstrate the real world applications of decision sciences across a broad range of airline functions to improve revenue performance, enhance efficiency, and contain costs.

The March luncheon, will be held on March 17, 2009, and the speaker will be Jay Mousa, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. He will discuss the sorts of information and the statistical analyses performed at the Bureau.

Plans for our future luncheons will be included in our upcoming announcements and in the Parameter. Lunch is $30 for CCASA members, $35 for nonmembers. Nonmembers, join the chapter for a year for only $15 and get the discount plus all the other benefits of membership!
As usual, the Lucille Derrick Fund will purchase a limited number of tickets for students who wish to attend. If you are a student and would like to take advantage of this offer, please register online below, and contact Lou Fogg, expressing your interest.

 

Click here to register online

 

For any questions or concerns, please contact:
Lou Fogg, VP for Luncheons
Phone: 312-942-6239 or E-mail: louis_fogg@rush. edu

Please Spread the Word!

 

 

Short Course on Longitudinal Data Analysis
Presenter:
Don Hedeker, University of Illinois-Chicago
Sponsored by the Chicago Chapter Of the American Statistical Organization.

 

 

Date: Friday, March 20th, 2009

Location: The University of Chicago's Booth School of Business

The Gleacher Center
450 North Cityfront Plaza Drive
Chicago, Illinois 60611-4316

Time: 8:30am-5pm

Course summary
The course will provide an introduction to longitudinal data analysis using mixed effects regression models, drawing on material from the book Longitudinal Data Analysis (Wiley, 2006) using the new SuperMix statistical software program (a 15-day trial edition of SuperMix is available at www.ssicentral.com/supermix/index.html). The focus will be on application of these models, with direct application illustrated using SuperMix.

In particular, the basic mixed-effects regression model for continuous outcomes will be introduced and described, including use of polynomials for expressing change across time, the multilevel representation of the mixed model, treatment of time-invariant and time-varying covariates, and modeling of the variance-covariance structure of the repeated measures.
It will be shown how these models can allow for missing data across time in terms of the outcome variable, thus permitting analysis of subjects who have incomplete data across time.
Finally, because categorical outcomes are common in many research areas, description and application of mixed-effects logistic regression models will also be covered.

Attendees are encouraged to download the trial software onto their laptops prior to course, and to bring their laptops with them to the course.

Registration

Early Registration Fees:
Student $45
Member $295
Non-member $395

After March 1, 2009, add $50 to the early registration fees.

The fee includes extensive materials, breakfast items, lunch, and refreshments for AM and PM breaks. Space is limited.
To ensure yourself a place, please register early.

Registration deadline March 17, 2009.
Click here to register.

 

Questions?
Contact Tony Babinec, VP Workshops (tbabinec@sbcglobal.net).

Instructor Biography
Please click here for Don Hedeker's Bio.

 

Yakov Avichai, a long time chapter member and founder of the Statistical Research group at CNA, passed away on December 30th, 2008, following a prolonged illness.
Yakov moved to Chicago from Israel for graduate studies in statistics at the University of Chicago, and lived in Hyde Park for much of the remainder of his life.
Following his work at the American Bar Association, where he helped investigate patterns of racial bias, he went to CNA, where, for more than 20 years, he headed a statistical consulting team that worked within all areas of the company. He retired in 1999.
He will be remembered for his dedication in increasing the role of statistics in the business world. His unending support and encouragement of his staff, which included at least four current and former ASA Chicago Chapter board members, as well as numerous summer interns, will be greatly missed.
He is survived by his beloved wife, Raya, and children, Olga and Samuel.
In lieu of flowers, memorial contributions can be sent to:

K.A.M. Isaiah Israel Congregation
1110 E. Hyde Park Blvd
Chicago, IL 60615
U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum
P.O. Box 1852
Highland Park, IL 60035

I recently posted on my blog, and wanted to share it with you all as well. Please share your comments. I am interested to hear your feedback!

Those who have been following my blog regularly have read my observations about how the quantitative market has remained relatively unscathed by this current recession. I am unhappy to report that this is no longer the case. As the recession has deepened, our profession is beginning to feel its impact.

It's not news that the impact has been broad based, with few industries or regions spared. Overall unemployment now stands at 7.6%, up significantly from 5% last summer. It appears that the college-educated are also feeling the pinch - with a current unemployment rate of 3.8% and projections from labor economists that say it will well exceed 4% before we see a recovery.

Any good news, you ask? Absolutely! In the last four weeks, I have had several candidates who have had multiple opportunities tendered, and their prospective employers even bid up their offers! This supports my belief that quantitative candidates will always have options, even in a depressed employment market like the current one.

These particular candidates had very strong quantitative skills, were proficient SAS users, projected solid business acumen and had a positive attitude. In most cases, the candidates were fortunate in that they either didn't own homes or didn't require home purchase assistance. They were also very flexible geographically. While some of the qualifications that made them attractive candidates were a matter of circumstance, many are attainable through hard work, dedication, continuing education and perseverance.

Here are a few general observations, as well as how the recession is specifically affecting the quantitative job market:

• Hiring freezes and layoffs are widespread.

The good news for the hard-to-replace quantitative professional is that open positions are usually eliminated first, before any layoffs are implemented. Unfortunately, I am now seeing more staffers getting pink slips in second or third round layoffs. In terms of hiring, with the current level of economic uncertainty, very few organizations have the courage or ability to increase their headcount, even if they have a need.

The good news for the hard-to-replace quantitative professional is that open positions are usually eliminated first, before any layoffs are implemented. Unfortunately, I am now seeing more staffers getting pink slips in second or third round layoffs. In terms of hiring, with the current level of economic uncertainty, very few organizations have the courage or ability to increase their headcount, even if they have a need.

 

The good news for the hard-to-replace quantitative professional is that open positions are usually eliminated first, before any layoffs are implemented. Unfortunately, I am now seeing more staffers getting pink slips in second or third round layoffs. In terms of hiring, with the current level of economic uncertainty, very few organizations have the courage or ability to increase their headcount, even if they have a need.

 

 

• Raises and bonuses are infrequent.

In the last several weeks, many companies have announced salary freezes and are drastically reducing or eliminating bonuses. Though bonuses may still abound on Wall Street, the rest of us will be holding tight for a while. I have heard that, in some cases, employees have even been asked to take pay cuts, usually from 5-10%, and I know of one situation that involved a 20% salary reduction.

 

 

• Relocation requiring home sales has become difficult.

The bursting of the real estate bubble and the tightening mortgage market has significantly increased the lead-time required to sell homes in many areas of the country. Companies today are rarely willing to provide a house purchase parachute because they are already shouldering a heavy burden of unsold homes stemming from 2008 relocations. Individuals who must relocate for new jobs are often faced with the prospect of substantial losses, especially if they purchased their homes in the inflated years just prior to the real estate bust.

 

 

• The ability to negotiate with a prospective employer has been greatly reduced.

Now is not the time to casually explore your options. Recognize that the recession is affecting everyone, individuals and corporations alike, and negotiate with respect for the current economic situation.

 

No one knows for sure how long the recession will last or what its ultimate fallout will be, but my sense is that we will see the market begin to strengthen at some point before this time next year. I have weathered many a recession in my career (but only because I started so young!), including those of '82, '87, '91 and '01. The single common thread through every downturn, large or small, is that they all came to an end, and it has been my experience that the faster the decline, the more vibrant the recovery.

Linda Burtch
Editor

Statistical Analyst II - Predictive Modeling (Job 19706)
Location: Schaumburg, IL

Great position for statistician starting their career. We are looking to expand a growing Predictive Modeling Team.

Responsibilities would include: working with large datasets including internal and external data, preliminary data analysis, and model building utilizing advanced statistical techniques (GLMs, regression, clustering, trees, etc.).

Position requires working in collaboration with other team members, data specialists, BU's, and others.

Required skills: strong statistical knowledge and strong quantitative/analytical skills. Proficiency in SAS is a plus but not a requirement. Advanced degree in statistics, math, or related field and a minimum GPA of 3.0 are required.

Interested applicants can apply at the Zurich North America website using the job number above. The website is located at www.zurichna.com, and from there applicants can go to the Careers section. Click here to apply directly.

Editor: Linda Burtch (312) 629-2400

PARAMETER, newsletter of the Chicago Chapter of the American Statistical Association, is published 10 times a year as a service to its members. To submit material for publication, contact the Editor, Linda Burtch, email: lburtch@smithhanley.com

PARAMETER provides a job listing service by publishing Positions Available and Positions Wanted, the latter being free to Chapter members. Companies may list positions for $75. Contact the Editor for more information.

For additional information about Chicago Chapter ASA, please visit us on the web at: www.ChicagoASA.org Also, visit the National ASA web site www.amstat.org.

Email change of address to: suzanne.niemi@walgreens.com

email: newsletter@chicagoasa.org

web: http://www.chicagoasa.org