Concerns for the integrity of federal statistical data have been rising since President Trump’s election and more so since his inauguration gauging from recent articles. Known and trusted as objective, federal statistical data form the backbone of policymaking and decisionmaking in the public and private sector. A January 30 article in the Guardian has been widely circulated. Titled “Statisticians fear Trump White House will manipulate figures to fit narrative” and quoting former Chief Statistician of the United States Katherine Wallman, former BLS Commissioner Erica Groshen and former Census Director Ken Prewitt, it states “Wallman, like other statisticians the Guardian spoke to, believes that a number system which consists of accurate, publicly available government data is currently under threat.”
A January 9 article from Catherine Rampell, Trump shouldn’t close the doors on government data, reports that, based on conversations with 20 leading scholars in the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in January,
Almost to a person, they mentioned concerns about the continued integrity and availability of government data. The prospect of yet more funding cuts for the statistical agencies, layered with Donald Trump’s repeated efforts to
discredit government numbers, bode ill for academics, businesses, households and policymakers alike…
Few statistical agency alumni I’ve spoken with said they worry about outright manipulation of government data. There are protections in place to guard against political meddling, and armies of career civil servants would scream bloody murder if any appointee — Democrat or Republican — violated them. On some level, too, presidents know that having credible economic data is in their own interest.
The bigger risk, they say, is that Republicans on the Hill and in the White House will decide that these data-collection efforts — as well as some related data-sharing agreements with cutting-edge researchers — are at best expendable, at worst politically inconvenient.
Echoing the threats of budget cuts to all agencies, a widely-circulated recent article in The Hill is titled, Trump team prepares dramatic cuts. One encouraging development is that Wilbur Ross, President Trump’s nominee for the Commerce Department—which includes the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau for Economic Analysis—seems to be value economic statistical data. According to Five Thirty Eight’s Ben Casselman, “Ross positioned himself as an advocate for data, noting during his opening statement that he had been a frequent user of government data during his business career, and had even worked as a census taker while in business school. He said he had learned in business that, “Anything you can’t measure you can’t manage.”
For more articles on concerns about federal data, see the list at the bottom of this entry. In this post, I want to convey the ASA, in coordination with other stakeholders of the federal statistical agencies, is watching closely the developments and addressing concrete threats as they appear. We will also be continuing our active advocacy for their budgets—starting in advance of the resumption of the FY17 budget deliberations this spring and the release of the president’s FY18 budget request—and monitoring closely any threats to the integrity of the surveys and data. We also ask the greater federal statistical data community to make us aware of any concerning developments.
The following are two most concrete data-related issues we are monitoring. (I may add additional items as I learn of them.)
- Congressman Paul Gosar (R-AZ) and Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) have introduced companion bills—R. 482 and S. 103—that have this concerning provision:
"Notwithstanding any other provision of law, no Federal funds may be used to design, build, maintain, utilize, or provide access to a Federal database of geospatial information on community racial disparities or disparities in access to affordable housing."
Both offices have been receptive to concerns of the community clarifying they are not seeking to undermine data collection/dissemination or, more broadly data-driven decisionmaking/evidence-based policymaking. We will continue to monitor these bills and urge the database provision be removed.
We are also monitoring the effects of the hiring freeze on the federal statistical and other agencies. The following articles touch upon the concerns:
There are many recent articles expressing concern about government data, including on health and climate, in addition to the ones posted above. I will try to keep the following list updated, time allowing:
- What happened to Trump's war on data?, Danny Vinik, Politico, 7/25/17.
- Facts Are Enemies of the People, Paul Krugman, NYT, 3/13/17.
- Trump's budget director claims Obama was 'manipulating' jobs data, CNN Money, 3/12/17.
- White House welcomes strong jobs data in potentially rule-violating tweets, Reuters, 3/10/17.
- Activists Rush to Save Government Science Data — If They Can Find It, NYT, 3/6/17
- White House proposes steep budget cut to leading climate science agency, Washington Post, 3/3/17
- Federal data empowers local decisionmaking, 2/27/17
- TrumpBeat: Is Trump Already Messing With Government Data?, Five Thirty Eight, 2/24/17
- Why is Federal Goverrnment Data Disappearing?, The Hill, 2/21/17
- Trump Team Fosters Fears He'll Adopt Alternative Economic Facts, Michelle Jamrisko, Bloomberg News, 2/20/17.
- The Trump White House is already cooking the books, Catherine Rampell, Washington Post, 2/20/17.
- Trump Administration Considers Change in Calculating U.S. Trade Deficit, WSJ, 2/19/17.
- Trump Team’s Growth Forecasts Far Rosier Than Those of CBO, Private Economists, WSJ 2/17/17.
- Crime stats should inform the public. Trump is misusing them to scare us instead. Washington Post, op-ed, 2/10/17.
- Could The Way Unemployment Is Reported Change Under Trump? Fast Company, 2/8/17.
- House Education and Workforce Committee Democrats Seek Commitment from President Trump to Support the Bureau of Labor Statistics Data, 2/3/17.
- USDA abruptly purges animal welfare information from its website, Washington Post, 2/3/17.
- Should We Worry About Trump Fudging Jobs Data?, Slate, 2/2/17.
- Government Economists Are Going to Produce Statistics Trump Doesn't Like, Gene Sperling, The Atlantic, 2/2/17.
- In a post-truth world, statistics could provide an essential public service | John Pullinger | Opinion | The Guardian, 1/31/17.
- Donald Trump Wants To Increase the Unemployment Rate By 1%, From 4.7% to 5.7%, Forbes, 1/29/17.
- Trump called the government’s job numbers ‘phony.’ What happens now that he’s in charge of them?, Washington Post, 1/26/17.
- The World Of (Official) Data And Statistics; Not Yet Dead, Johannes Jutting, Huffington Post, 1/26/17
- Key Federal Studies Face Hazy Future Under Trump, Education Week, 1/25/17
- Will Trump team try to undermine official unemployment numbers?, CNN, 1/25/17.
- We rely on the government for lots of data. What happens to that in the Trump era of “alternative facts”?, Washington Post, 1/23/17
- And the tap-dance around good data begins, Washington Post, 1/23/17
- How statistics lost their power – and why we should fear what comes next, The Guardian, 1/19/17
- Scientists fear pending attack on federal statistics collection, Jeff Mervis, Science, 1/3/17.
- Researchers race to copy Obamacare data for fear it will vanish, Politico, 12/21/16.
- 4 million sign up for Affordable Care Act plans, more than in previous years, Washington Post, 12/21/16.
- How Trump’s White House Could Mess With Government Data, FiveThirty Eight, 12/15/16
- Fears rise of Trump-era 'memory hole' in federal data, Politico, 12/14/16
- Scientists are frantically copying U.S. climate data, fearing it might vanish under Trump, Washington Post, 12/13/16
- How Economic Data Is Kept Politics-Free, New York Times, 11/3/16.
- When the facts don’t matter, how can democracy survive?, Washington Post, 10/17/16.
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