[6/4/15 update: See this 6/3/15 blog entry on House action on FY16 CJS Bill: House Cuts Census Bureau Funding and Votes to Make American Community Survey Voluntary
6/1/15 update: OMB issues veto threat on House FY16 CJS bill in advance of the bill being on the House floor. It cites many concerns, including "inadequate funding provided to the Census Bureau to produce robust economic and demographic data and prepare for the 2020 Decennial Census. The Committee's proposed funding level would increase taxpayers' cost of conducting the 2020 Decennial Census by billions of dollars by preventing the Census Bureau from developing, testing, and implementing critical cost saving innovations. In addition, the reductions in funding for the American Community Survey threaten the data availability and coverage for rural communities and communities with small populations, depriving businesses and policy makers of the data necessary to make informed decisions."]
Just a week after Congressman Ted Poe (R-TX) introduced his bill to make the ACS voluntary, the House Commerce, Justice, and Science (CJS) appropriations subcommittee released its report language expressing its concern about "the burdensome nature of the ACS and directs Census to focus on its core, constitutionally mandated decennial Census activities." Chaired by Congressman John Culberson (R-TX), the report language did not come as a surprise as Chairman Culberson has been vocal about his belief that the ACS should be voluntary, including in March during a hearing on the FY16 budget with Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker: New Chairman of House Funding Panel for Commerce, Justice, and Science Expresses Concerns on ACS and Census.
Chairman Culberson and his subcommittee released its draft FY16 CJS bill—also known as the Chairman's mark—on May 13, a day before the subcommittee approved the bill. The corresponding FY16 CJS report language was released May 19, the day before the full Appropriations marked up and approved of the bill, and included this language on the ACS:
The Committee is very concerned about the burdensome nature of the ACS and directs Census to focus on its core, constitutionally mandated decennial Census activities.
The Committee is aware that the Bureau has convened Federal agencies to review questions included on the ACS to ensure that all the questions are necessary and that the ACS is the appropriate survey vehicle to gather the information.The Committee is extremely disappointed that this initial review only resulted in a proposal to remove one question. The Committee directs the Census Bureau to submit, no later than 45 days after enactment of this Act, a plan for the expeditious removal of additional questions, as appropriate, from the survey.
In addition, the Bureau shall continue to provide quarterly briefings to the Committee on efforts to ensure the necessity of all the questions on the ACS; on efforts to ensure that non-response follow-up is conducted in the least intrusive manner; and on congressional outreach conducted by the Respondent Advocate. Finally, the Committee urges the Census Bureau to pursue the support of the Congress with respect to its plans to use adaptive design methods in the ACS and the upcoming 2020 Decennial Census.
The Census/ACS stakeholder community is grateful the House CJS bill does not directly undermine the mandatory requirement of the ACS. It is however very concerned about the funding level for the U.S. Census Bureau, which is $1.11 billion well short of the requested $1.50 billion. The requested increase of $387 million is largely for the planning for the decennial census. In particular, the CJS report provides $400 million for 2020 decennial census planning compared to $662.6M requested) and $200 million for the ACS (compared to the $257 million requested and the FY15 level of $242 million). Unless the Senate and ultimately the conference bill provides more for both programs, both programs would be significantly hampered at these levels. The report language states
The Committee is aware that the Census Bureau has modeled design changes that it estimates could reduce the cost of the 2020 Census by more than $5 billion compared to repeating the same design and methods used for the 2010 Decennial. Significant design changes include using a ‘‘bring your own device’’ model for enumerators; changes in address canvassing; expanded Internet response options; expanded use of administrative records; a reduced field office footprint; and more directed non-response follow-up protocols. The Committee urges the Bureau to work aggressively to narrow its focus on various research activities underway and to engage the Congress regarding the various options noted above. The Committee notes that the increased use of administrative records would be a major change in the way the Census is conducted and directs the Bureau to ensure that the Congress and the public are aware of the full scope of the Bureau’s planned uses of such records.
The low funding levels for the Census were mentioned in a May 19 letter from OMB Director Shaun Donovan to Appropriations Committee Chair Hal Rogers. See also the 5/27/15 Census Project Blog post by Terri Ann Lowenthal: Making a Molehill Out of a Mountain.
The next step for the bill is the House floor where amendments to undermine the ACS are likely. Indeed, the last two times the CJS bill was on the House floor—in 2012 for the FY13 bill and in 2014 for the FY15 bill—it was amended to make the ACS voluntary. The Senate is expected to start is CJS bill deliberations in June.
For more on the dynamics of the ACS in the new Congress, see this February Amstat News article. For actions by the House of Representatives on the ACS in previous Congress, see these blog entries:
For coverage of Canada's experience with replacing its mandatory long-form census with a voluntary survey, see this 5/6/13 blog entry: Results on Data Quality for Newly Voluntary Canadian Long-Form Census Coming In.
For George Will's perspective on the American Community Survey, see this 2013 column, "America, Know Thyself: The American Community Survey benefits us all."
See also this May 19 blog post from Terri Ann Lowenthal, An ‘Opt-Out’ Democracy, and the COSSA analysis of the FY16 House CJS Bill. For funding levels, you can also monitor FY16 Statistical Agency Budget Developments.
See other ASA Science Policy blog entries. For ASA science policy updates, follow @ASA_SciPol on Twitter.