The Census Bureau, for very good reasons, put out 2020 estimates of the population following their usual methodology, as Connie Citro outlined. What is new, however, is the fact that they created the 2020 estimates at all. The release pattern in the last two Censuses was only releasing Census data and the national Demographic Estimates during the period that the Census was being released.
This year, we have the odd situation of having two sets of numbers one generated by the Census Count and one generated by the estimate system, that is based upon the 2010 Census count as adjusted. So we have serious Two Number problems\.
1) A release of the state population counts used for Congressional Apportionment. (Released April 26th)
2) A delayed release of the Census data from the so-called PL94-171 file, which is aimed at redistricting, and includes data down to the blocks, with many iterations of race, taking into account all of the race reporting, including one race, two races, all the way up to six races. Population and data on the diversity of population both for adults, children and total are derivable from these data. Besides redistricting these data are used to track population change for any and all geographies down to the block. Mayor's and citizens should know the population and population distribution for the nation, states, counties, places, villages, minor civil divisions, census designated places, school districts, and their own neighborhood. Indeed, there are over 50,000 administrative districts of various kinds that the Census Bureau produces data for. (To Be Released Mid-August in one format, and then re-released in September with a new "official" format.) The impact of the noise injection is still not known, or how that will actually work or whether the Bureau will need to find another approach is being challenged in court. A recent release of the data from the 2010 Census with noise injected for comparison is not reassuring.
Controversial Census Bureau Plan That Makes Data Less Accurate Goes to Court - Social Explorer
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Controversial Census Bureau Plan That Makes Data Less Accurate Goes to Court - Social Explorer |
As some states celebrate and others reel from the release of the state population figures, a storm continues around the Census Bureau's unprecedented and massively con...Social Explorer provides easy access to demographic information about the United States. We provide thousands of interactive data maps going back to 1790. |
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3) A panoply of estimates for components of change (at the County Level), population at the state level (from December) In late may and early June more estimates, including race, age, Hispanic States and sex in five year age bands and others. None of these rely upon the collected data from the 2020. See the schedule here:
ScheduleNone of the estimates rely upon the 2020 Census. So we have a two number problem, and people and statisticians being who they are people are going to wonder which set of numbers, if either, is correct.
Andy
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Andrew Beveridge
Emeritus Professor of Sociology/ President, Social Explorer/ Independent Redistricting Consultant
Queens and Grad Center CUNY and Social Explorer, Inc
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Original Message:
Sent: 05-12-2021 07:12
From: David Corliss
Subject: Census estimates
Many thanks to Constance Citro for the clarification! I was indeed referring to the earlier action where, as she wrote "(t)he previous administration did try to interfere with the census". If this is not the earlier numbers specified in the original post, I stand corrected and apologize for any confusion. I have only referred to action outside the Census Bureau, not their own work which is always excellent and unbiased. I will maintain my long-standing practice of praising the work of the Federal statistical agencies (cf. my article in the March issue of Amstat News) and defending them against outside political pressure.
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David J Corliss, PhD
Director, Peace-Work www.peace-work.org
davidjcorliss@peace-work.org
Original Message:
Sent: 05-11-2021 17:18
From: Constance Citro
Subject: Census estimates
David - I'm wondering if you may be confusing the actual 2020 census with the development of 2020 population estimates based on the 2010 census updated with birth/death and immigration records? The previous administration did try to interfere with the census--by trying to speed up the count even though (because of delays caused by COVID) this would not allow enough time for the Census Bureau to review and edit the data and by ordering the Census Bureau to produce counts of undocumented immigrants. These efforts were challenged in court and were not successful. The current administration explicitly reversed the order to produce undocumented estimates (as well as estimates of citizen voting-age population).
Neither the previous nor the current administration interfered with the production of the population estimates, which are produced on a regular schedule by the Census Bureau's Population Division following long-established procedures. The differences between the population estimates for 2020 and the actual 2020 apportionment counts for states occur in every census. They may indicate quality problems in either the estimates and/or the census for particular states, which evaluation studies may be able to identify, but there was no "fiddling" of the estimates or the counts. It is important for everyone to be clear on this point and not to leave any impression that the dedicated staff at the Census Bureau did anything other than their usual highly professional jobs.
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Connie Citro
Senior Scholar
Committee on National Statistics
Original Message:
Sent: 05-10-2021 08:52
From: David Corliss
Subject: Census estimates
It's really quite simple. The first estimates were rigged by the former administration, which made no secret of doing so. This deliberate malfeasance was caught and corrected by the new administration. The final numbers differ from the early estimates because the early estimates were frauds.
Are you by any chance familiar with the term DARVO? Once little known outside the area of sexual abuse - I first learned it in connection with research on the under-reporting of human trafficking - Mr Trump and his affiliates have made it go mainstream. It describes a three-step process:
- Deny: refuse to accept responsibility for the crime - for example, claiming the proposed citizenship question was intended to protect voting rights when the real intent was to cause an undercount
What's the big deal about adding a citizenship question to U.S. Census?
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What's the big deal about adding a citizenship question to U.S. Census? |
U.S. President Donald Trump is making a last-ditch push to add a citizenship question to the 2020 U.S. Census, despite a Supreme Court ruling against it last month and criticism by some states and civil liberties groups that the question is meant to deter immigrants from... |
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- Attack: in this case, the Fox News article cited above, attacks the integrity of the Census final count when, in fact, it is correct and the earlier estimates deliberately incorrect.
- Reverse Victim Order: the true perpetrator of the abuse claims to be the victim. the former administration's proxies today claim to have lost representation when the truth is they were prevented from stealing over-representation.
https://www.oleantimesherald.com/news/nation/house-republicans-question-whether-white-house-interfered-in-2020-census-data/article_4b53d691-3f64-5e52-a171-8b8511d93081.html
The DARVO process is standard operating procedure for Mr. Trump and his acolytes. They are now attacking the Census and playing the victim because their tampering was caught and the counts corrected.
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David J Corliss, PhD
Director, Peace-Work www.peace-work.org
davidjcorliss@peace-work.org
Original Message:
Sent: 05-01-2021 01:02
From: Terry Meyer
Subject: Census estimates
Anyone have any specific census knowledge of the issue identified in this article? All the changes go one way, so random error doesn't seem like a likely explanation.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-republicans-biden-census-numbers-estimates-departures
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Terry Meyer
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