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When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

  • 1.  When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-23-2017 10:18
    Dear ASA Connect Colleagues,
    I just posted a blog on the topic "When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?"  It is brief - under 300 words - but addresses an important matter and ends with some questions on which your feedback would be very much appreciated.
    Many thanks!
    Ron

    ------------------------------
    Ron Wasserstein
    Executive Director
    The American Statistical Association
    Promoting the Practice and Profession of Statistics

    ------------------------------


  • 2.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-26-2017 02:19
    I can already hear some people complaining about the statement:

    Does the issue relate to possible infringement on scientific freedom or human/civil rights?

    The question they will have is, "What does ASA have to do with human/civil rights?"

    I think a better idea would be to speak up about the misuse and abuse of statistics.

    That opens up a lot of scenarios where you can talk about specific areas that are directly related to human/civil rights.

    Some examples:

    Bad "statistical" sampling caused major issues in Flint, Mi.
    Some jurisdictions use biased data to create "predictive models" for sentencing convicts.
    Does "The War on Drugs" and "Tough Sentencing" help at all?
    etc.

    That idea about speaking up on the misuse and abuse of statistics allows the ASA to speak up about how poorly designed a lot of experiments really are. How using Designed Experiments can save time and money in all types of research. Especially academic.  That gets into talking with ABET, ACS and other "STEM" related professional organizations about the power of proper experimental design.

    ------------------------------
    Andrew Ekstrom

    Statistician, Chemist, HPC Abuser;-)
    ------------------------------



  • 3.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-27-2017 09:46

    Ron,

     

    I believe that the questions are good questions, but there are some that I predict (ha-ha) will lack consensus in many situation.  For example, while we all may agree that use of the scientific method is vital to exploration and discovery, we may not all agree on the cost benefit of studies.  There are some that view the current proposed Federal budget cuts as an infringement on scientific freedom or human/civil rights, while there are some that do not (a case could be made for either side).  This would not be a case where ASA should take a position. 

     

    I see that we have used the word 'science' in several of the questions.   While we are scientists, I would rather use the term 'data'.  AAAS is already an advocate for science, and I do not think that we should align ourselves with them.  I attended the AAAS meetings in Boston this year, and while many legitimate concerns about the role of science in the new administration were made, there were just as many statements that were agreed upon that I would classify as 'bellyaching', 'petty', 'narrow sighted', and downright 'foolish'. 

     

    I do have many other opinions on this topic but I will spare you the details (thankfully).  I trust you and the board to do what is best.

     

    Thanks for listening,

    Phil





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  • 4.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-27-2017 09:47

    In the late 1970s i was ambivalent as to which of two disciplines to identify with: statistics or psychology.  Around that time the Americal Psychologcal Association took two political stands that were irrelevant to the field.  I was ambivalent to the one and strongly opposed to the other.  After attending a meeting with the president of APA where he tried to trivialize the endorsement of political positions I decided to identify with the statistical community and have never regretted it.  I am now retired and participate in this forum to keep up with old friends. And I still appreciate its political neutrality.


    Pedro Saavedra



    ------------------------------
    Pedro Saavedra
    Retired
    ------------------------------



  • 5.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-28-2017 11:22
    What I'm reading, and agree with, in some of the other replies, is that an official public statement of the ASA should contain an identifiable statistical focus.  One excellent suggestion made in this forum could become a useful rule of thumb:   Will the proposed ASA statement address the "use and abuse" of statistics (or failure to apply statistical considerations)--in a circumstance where this makes or could make a significant public difference (such as in the Flint water testing case)? 

    Not every appropriate action by the ASA needs to be a public statement.  (Have we defined first what is an official public statement?)   For example, I totally appreciate the comment about why the ASA might change its Conference venue if it feels there's an unjustified risk posed to its members (e.g. the bathroom law issue). ....So we could simply change the venue.   If someone asks, frame the answer in those terms.  I don't think that's the same thing as putting out "an ASA statement" about whether (as a general principle) others or its own members as individuals should "boycott" something.

    That distinction has been made very tangible recently here in Canada.   During the recent uncertainty about the U.S. travel ban status, some school boards have canceled planned field trips of their students to the U.S.  The reason was that some students in these trips may have found themselves turned back at the border due to the ban--and it was untenable to the board to contemplate that that could happen to one of their students while his or her classmates are mid-journey to an intended, common experience.  

    Of course the media could (did) report on this decision, and readers can reach their own conclusions.  But there's a very real difference between a school board or the ASA Executive making decisions with a focus on their own members' security and interests, versus making an official political statement.  

    Responsible members of executives, and of the ASA generally, are also responsible citizens and voters, etc. and can also take parallel, political steps (write their  political representative, etc.) if they wish.

    ------------------------------
    William (Bill) Goodman
    Professor, Faculty of Business and Information Technology
    University of Ontario Institute of Technology
    ------------------------------



  • 6.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-29-2017 12:16
    While I agree with the many postings that say that statements should be made to address the misuse or misinterpretation of statistics, I think it is important, too, to make statements regarding fostering an environment in which to produce appropriate statistics (and similarly sounding off against issues that do not foster that environment).

    Unfortunately, many times those situations will seem partisan (e.g. it is impossible to talk about "redistricting" without sounding biased against the incumbent party, even if statistics show that current districts are "unbalanced" so to speak).  In those situations, it is vital to maintain the objectiveness in those statements that our profession allows - unless we want to be accused (again) of using statistics to support our political/social biases.

    I believe that the questions the board posed address both situations. There should not be a weighting system. There should always be open and honest discussion of the elected Board of Directors to determine if the situation is ripe and appropriate for a statement.
    (my $0.02)

    ------------------------------
    Mary Kwasny
    Associate Professor
    ------------------------------



  • 7.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 07-02-2017 12:46
    Here's a civil/human rights issue that ASA might be able to speak on... But should the ASA get involved? 

    http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/07/02/judges-michigan-jobless-agency/423502001/

    Basically, the state decided that they needed to automate the unemployment system. They used it to determine if someone was commuting fraud. One of the questions they ask is, "How many days of vacation time will you be paid for by your previous employer?" How many of you know this value? Out to several decimal places? Should you answer, "12 days" because your company's system says so. But, the company reports 15.367, because you forgot to include the acrewed vacation days based upon your last paycheck, not the date you looked, you are automatically flagged for fraud and punished as such. If your former company's system says "12 days" but they report, 11.87, you are again convicted of fraud until proven otherwise. A simple statistical test could have shown the reported fraud rate was far larger than expected. But, no one bothered to do so. 

    This is the same state gov't that allowed the Flint water crisis to occur. Should an independent statistician have analyzed that data, a lot of people could have been saved from lead poisoning. 

    Now, here is the question for everyone. 

    Would we support the ASA making statements about the statistical malfeasance propagated by Michigan?

    A question for the board at ASA:

    Would these issues rise to the level where the ASA would feel good about making a statement? 

    If so, why? If not, why not?

    ------------------------------
    Andrew Ekstrom

    Statistician, Chemist, HPC Abuser;-)
    ------------------------------



  • 8.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-26-2017 05:03
    Ron

    Thank you for starting this important discussion.  I think the questions are exactly the right ones.  I would add two points for consideration -
    • would there be a broad consensus on what the ASA might say on an issue (note I am not suggesting unanimity since the ASA is a very diverse community).  The reason I suggest this is because I can envisage issues where everyone agrees it is of relevance to the statistics profession but there is a divergence of views on what the line should be.
    • should the ASA be taking a lead on this issue or should the ASA be supporting another national or international statistical society in doing so, as this might change the nature of what the ASA says?  I raise this because not all issues will be nationally specific and some may relate to countries where the ASA has limited understanding or influence.  I would hope that a principle would be for the community of statisticians across the world to work in concert where possible.
    I think you are right not to devise a scoring system as not all points will have the same importance for different issues.  It calls for sound judgement and ideally you want to canvass a wide range of views, and in particular ensure that orthodoxies are challenged.  However one of the difficulties is that often to have an impact the ASA needs to make a speedy statement and there is little time to test out alternative views.  To this end it is useful to have a small panel of wise members you can consult quickly.  These members should be prepared to take the occasional risk!  After all the most cautious approach is one of complete invisibility and I would be very sad if you reversed the excellent moves you and Steve have achieved at the ASA (and incidentally Hetan Shah has achieved at the RSS).

    My apologies for not getting to JSM this year but I hope it is a great success.

    Denise 

    ------------------------------
    Denise Lievesley
    Principal
    Green Templeton College
    Oxford University
    ------------------------------



  • 9.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-26-2017 09:41
    The ASA should only make a statement on an issue when there is firm statistical foundation on which to base the statement upon. 

    As statisticians, our domain is to quantify the uncertainty of the world.  So when the ASA makes a declaration, it (to me) is publicly stating that 'using the firm foundation and axiomatic assumptions of statistical science, we believe [A] to be true with quantified certainty."  To take it any further than that is to make a subjective judgement call, outside the scope of statistics, and thus outside the scope of the ASA. 

    The last thing I want to do is for statistics and ASA to get caught up in using statistics to translate moral issues for which there is no scientific basis.  Else we become just a fan club of statistics.


    So questions I would ask: 
    For what statistical basis do we have to justify such a statement? 
    Is there a larger (usually moral) issue that statistics cannot touch?  If so, should we (ASA) be in the business of opining or is it outside the realm of statistics?



    ------------------------------
    Weston McManus
    SAS Institute
    ------------------------------



  • 10.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-27-2017 09:45
    Dear Ron, thank you for starting this discussion. We've all seen in the past few months that it is a "hot" topic! Some of the initiatives ASA board took - and I wholeheartedly agreed with theme - were met with harsh criticism from fellow members who disagreed. The criteria you propose are right and all-inclusive. I agree with Susan Spruill that no ranking is needed. But it is a test of leadership for our elected officials to choose the issues with care so that most of our members will either agree or be neutral about. The answer to the question "should we make statements about issues not directly related to Statistics" - from my point of view - is clear. Yes we should if the issues are related to our role as scientists. We must be - among others - role models and opinion leaders in the global society, especially today that we see an attack on Reason from all kinds of quacks. The explosion of Internet is eroding responsible information dissemination - great ideas "share the floor" with all kinds of unfounded (or intentionally misguided) stupidities. It is our duty to help the public recognize the great ideas and protect itself from the stupidities.
    ??

    Yiannis C. Bassiakos Associate Professor, DoE, UoA 1 Sofokleous street, 15509, Athens, GREECE tel. +30210.368.9491 mob. +30697.419.2133 Skype: yiannis.c.bassiakos





  • 11.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-26-2017 14:08

    Dear Colleagues:

     

    I agree with the general principles in Ron's post, but I would want ASA to be extremely cautious in taking a political position, because we are a professional organization, not a partisan one.  As a specific example, I'll share with you my response to one ASA resolution a while back, to boycott North Carolina because of its "bathroom law":

     

    This resolution to boycott states that pass laws that supposedly discriminate opens up a can of worms, in my opinion, that has nothing to do with ASA's mission.  What one person calls "laws that discriminate" can be interpreted by others as "laws that protect religious freedom".  I am increasingly troubled by this progressive shift further and further to extreme.   I would like the ASA Board to think about its responsibility to represent all of its members, not just the progressive wing.

     

    Morris

    Morris Olitsky

    Statistician, SNAP

    USDA Food and Nutrition Service

    Mid-Atlantic Regional Office

    Ph. 609-259-5008

    25th Anniversary of SNAP=Ed. Healthy Food. Healthy Moves. Healthy You.

     

     





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  • 12.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-27-2017 09:46
    The ASA has a responsibility to its members.  Hosting an ASA event in a state or city that endangers or discriminates against its members places them at risk.  An ASA event in North Carolina would clearly put transgender members at risk, physically and legally.  Whatever one's views on progressive politics, we can probably agree that (at least some) ASA members would not have been adequately protected in North Carolina.

    Rachel Braun

    ------------------------------
    Rachel Braun
    Melvin J Berman Hebrew Academy
    Rockville, MD
    ------------------------------



  • 13.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-28-2017 12:33
    Thanks to Rachel for pointing out that the ASA has the responsiblity to hold meetings in places where its members will
    be safe.  I think having access to safe restrooms is a basic human right and should not be a political issue.  I applaud the
    ASA for taking a stand to hold meetings in places where attendees will not be in danger.

    Most people take for granted that they can safely use a restroom labeled, "Men" or "Women".  For people who are
    androgenous or transgendered, using a binary gender restroom is a major safety issue.  For example, I know of an androgenous
    woman, born female, who quietly walked into the women's restroom at a department store and the cleaning person called the store's police.  Similar incidents have happened to this person many times.  

    If you have trouble understanding why using a bathroom is a safety issue for a gender variant person, ask yourself how you would
    feel if you walked into a locker room or restroom, and somebody called security solely based on your appearance.

    --
    Regards,
    Brandy R. Sinco
    Statistician and Programmer/Analyst, UM School of Social Work
    Current Projects: 
    Mon, Wed, Fri CHW Integration/REACH; 
    Tues, Thurs  RISE/WCBT





  • 14.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-27-2017 09:47
    ​I think I may be saying something similar to what Weston and Morris said, but I'll paraphrase section A1 of the ASA Ethical Guidelines:

    We need to carefully mitigate any preferences (especially political, religious, etc) that might influence making a public statement or the content of a public statement.

    ------------------------------
    Emil M Friedman, PhD
    emilfriedman@gmail.com
    http://www.statisticalconsulting.org
    ------------------------------



  • 15.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-27-2017 12:13
    Yiannis noted that "... we see an attack on Reason..." which I agree needs to be addressed. 
      
    It is a problem in general with any organization making a statement that the statement will not represent all members equally, and thus must be carefully worded to reflect that.  But in a world where facts and reason are increasingly trodden upon, unbiased statistical reasoning needs support, and that should be a concern for the ASA.  We should not shy away from supporting truth over false narratives.  This is basic.  The promotion of the use of good statistical analyses should be our concern.  With social media muddying the waters, this should be a huge concern.

    ------------------------------
    James Knaub
    Lead Mathematical Statistician
    Retired
    ------------------------------



  • 16.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-28-2017 14:54

    As Andrew Ekstein noted, the last point is the one most likely to cause concern. But I don't think the ASA board means that we should comment on human rights issues in a vaccuum. For example, I can't see the ASA taking a stand condeming some dictator for putting critics in jail. We would most likely get involved if one of the jailed individuals was a statistician or related scientist, or if scientific freedom issues were involved.

    I would guess that the board wrestled with narrowing that line, but decided to leave it broad for flexibility. I'm OK with that as long as it is understood that human rights are generally to be considered in a relevant context, such as who is involved, impact on the profession, or as Andrew says, misuse of statistics. We are the ASA not AI.

    Ed


    Ed J. Gracely, PhD
    Associate Professor
    Family, Community, & Preventive Medicine

    College of Medicine

    Associate Professor

    Epidemiology and Biostatistics

    Dornsife School of Public Health

    Drexel University
    2900 W. Queen Lane,
    Philadelphia PA, 19129

    Tel: 215.991.8466 
    | Fax: 215.843.6028
    Cell: 609.707.6965

    eg26@drexel.edu (egracely@drexelmed.edu forwards)
    drexelmed.edu  |  drexel.edu/publichealth






  • 17.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-27-2017 11:58
    Thanks for sharing Ron.  I believe the questions are pertinent to decide whether or not to be more active on an issue - and they're presented in the proper order as well, given the Association's raison d'etre.  Yes, even the last question should be considered (scientific freedom or human/civil rights), as no respectable organization should turn away from or be passive about blatant abuses.  However, ASA's approach should always be centered on its vision ("a world that relies on data and statistical thinking to drive discovery and inform decisions") and mission ("promoting the practice and profession of statistics"), and not be politically motivated.  The facts of a matter will be revealed by good data analysis, statistical methods, and defensible conclusions.

    ------------------------------
    Tim Keyes
    Principal
    Evergreen Business Analytics, LLC
    ------------------------------



  • 18.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-29-2017 09:41

    I appreciate Ron' s request for our input. From my perspective, the answer is clear.  What binds members of the ASA is the desire to practice and propagate proper statistical science. Thus I would expect the organization that represents us to publicly object to the misuse or misapplication of statistical methods wherever it occurs, and to advocate and promote the proper use of such methods whenever it can.  I would also expect the ASA to be intimately involved in proper education of statistics in our schools and to speak out if the profession or the ASA itself is maligned or misrepresented.

    If I want an organization to be a public voice for me for human rights or even scientific freedom, I should join any number of other civic, social or political organizations which fill that aim. Even bullet # 4 in the ASA Board's proposed criteria for public advocacy leaves the door wide open for the ASA to be my political voice, based on an "expectation" that I and other members would desire "involvement" in an issue based on the "judgement" of the Board.  Statisticians are a diverse lot, likely to be on both sides of any issue. I don't want the ASA to take my side or any side - that's not what I pay dues for; there are other organizations I should join instead if that were my goal.

    To those of you who wish to have the ASA publicly express views on important 'moral' or political issues, I would likewise suggest you instead join other organizations whose goal it is to represent your particular view. You should make your case as best you can to others without asking the ASA (and by proxy, me) to take sides.

    I recommend that the ASA consider four fundamental principles in its decision to issue an official ASA statement:

    Any official ASA pronouncement should adhere to its tagline, i.e. it should:  'Promote the practice and profession of statistics".

    Any public or official statement or request by any Officer of the ASA should have Board approval and endorsement, including blogs or any informal requests for support which use a title of an office or officer of the ASA, e.g. Science Policy Adviser. Whether formal or informal, attaching an Officer or Office to a statement or blog puts the ASA imprimatur on it.

    All statements should reflect the unique view of statisticians, statistical science and statistical thinking and not scientists in general, academicians in general, political parties, or any other group or 'genre'.

     The ASA should always advocate for open access to data and models where possible, or to a trusted 3rd party where necessary, especially in the public policy arena. Without the ability to evaluate the underlying analysis and data, it is impossible to verify or validate the conclusions.

    Here are examples of what I see are important societal issues which the ASA and the Office of Science Policy could focus on which fit within my criteria above:

    For policy questions, form a blue ribbon panel of volunteers of distinguished statisticians to carefully and objectively acquire, then assess, the statistical methods and data used to evaluate various government programs. Example: the efficacy of poverty programs. What measures of effectiveness are used?  I know there are some interesting studies about these programs, including economic mobility. Are the statistics well done? Is the data collected upon which the assessments are made reliable or unbiased? What priors are used? This could inform policy makers from a statistical standpoint. (I stress that evaluating the underlying analysis is a statistical question, whereas funding these programs at some level or assessing their cost/benefit is a political question.) The same could be done for any number of policy questions: anthropogenic global warming, veterans care, EPA evaluation of health effects, Medicare, etc. What are the data and statistical methodologies behind the policies?

    If one doesn't want to veer into policy, what about a statement and study of the consequences of non-publication of non-significant results in the social sciences? What stand does/should the ASA take and what are their proscriptions?  I've seen a scattered paper here or the on the topic, but the ASA has not to my knowledge taken any stand on the appropriateness of the editorial judgments made for journals. What about a clear statement of acceptable data analysis practices in refereed journals? Given that many recent studies have shown that many so-called "results" cannot be replicated, what is the ASA's stand on funding for such studies?

    Another example is clinical trials. What does the ASA say about the proper methods and evaluation of trials? How about the reliability of DNA evaluations?

    I could think of many other examples where society would benefit from experts in statistics weighing in on the appropriateness of the data and statistics behind important decisions based on empirical information.

    On the other hand, the ASA public statements are focused too much on federal budgets and legislation and politics in my opinion. Perhaps that is because the ASA is located in Washington D.C., a town which lives and breathes politics. Here are examples which fall outside what I see the proper role and function of the ASA and hence the ASA should have no public position on them:

    Federal budgets for any program. These decisions are political, involving allocation of resources and do not depend on good statistical methodology (although they may be informed by studies I suggested in #1 above). This includes sacred cows such as the census or NIH.

    Any legislation on civil rights, human rights, social justice, "sustainable programs", etc. Important issues perhaps, but properly included and evaluated in the political arena, and not an issue of proper statistical methodology.

    Any city, state or federal legislation.

    To summarize, the ASA should stick to statistics, data access and open analysis, and let others debate and comment on the moral, cultural and political issues of the day. To do otherwise would be to not represent the fundamental purpose of the ASA and therefore to not represent the values of all of its members.




    Terry

    Terry G. Meyer, Ph.D.

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  • 19.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-29-2017 11:24
    Dear Mr. Wasserstein and ASA members,

    As a recent college graduate in the field of Statistics and new member of the ASA, I appreciate the work that this organization and its members do to promote what is one of the cornerstones of science. I also thank you for the opportunity that you have created for members to input into the topic of when the ASA should make a public statement on an issue.

    There are many valuable comments and examples already posted in regards to the misuse of statistics, so I will limit my comment to the last two questions from your blog post: would members expect the ASA to be involved in the issue / does the issue relate to possible infringement on scientific freedom or human or civil rights.

    Taking the example that others have mentioned of North Carolina's bathroom law, we may not all agree that this is an important issue. Given its political tone, it can be argued that the ASA should refrain from inserting itself into the political debate. However, what may seemingly be a position of neutrality is, at the same time, a political position within the organization that could have an effect in the lives of some of its members.

    If, in its goal to keep its political neutrality as sanitized as possible, the ASA regards bathroom laws to be inconsequential to the organization, what would then be our position if one of our gender non-conforming members is fined and/or arrested for no fault but using the bathroom at an ASA event? This is not a straw man argument but a real tangible possibility stemming from state law.

    The point is that there is a difference between being politically neutral (i.e. not being partisan, make evidence-based decisions), and indifferent to what may occur to our members and/or invitees at an official ASA event. Since conferences do not take place in a vacuum, it is important to ensure that all members are free from prosecution.

    Thanks again for the opportunity to provide input about the topic that you have opened for feedback.


    ------------------------------
    ------------------------------------------
    Angela de la Mora
    BS in Statistics, 2017.
    Florida International University
    ------------------------------------------
    ------------------------------



  • 20.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-29-2017 15:40

    Dear Colleagues,

    TL;DR: Stick to statements for which we have the professional expertise to be credible.

    The rest...
    I have read this discussion with interest. It is important to be involved in our world and make an impact on it for the better. That's why I became a statistician. (That and the fact that my fiancé, now wife, really likes statisticians! Or maybe she just liked me. :-)

    From my perspective the question posed by Ron's blog, then, becomes even more imperative. We can and should make a statement when our credibility and expertise will have a positive impact on the discussion. Statements about the use and misuse of data and statistics obviously fall in that category. (At least we hope so. If we don't make a positive impact there, then nothing we say matters!)

    If statistics are being used in the discussion about moral issues, then we can and should comment on whether they are being used correctly. Whether they are being used to promote a moral position we agree with or disagree with doesn't matter. Not everything in this world is about the data, but at least where it is, it should be accurate.

    Making a broad statement on issues like the NC bathroom law becomes more problematic. I think we all agree that protecting the dignity and safety of others is very important, but how we do so often is a matter of opinion. Where there is data, let us be the watchdogs of its use, but it is unclear whether that statement made its conclusions based on any data or not. It certainly didn't refer to any. The ASA also did not survey us to determine whether that position is a good representation of the membership or not. Honestly, I think someone just got the idea in their head and others on the Board said, sure. Why not?

    Protecting the safety of our membership is important, but, at this level, it is outside of our purview. That's the government, law enforcement, etc. Should we make statements about states that don't have strict gun control laws? What about states that with higher speed limits? Or bad health care? Or don't fund their police enough? Or don't allow immigrants (who could be statisticians)? Or do allow immigrants (who could be terrorists)? (There's a joke here, but it's not coming together. :-)

    Finally, if we stick to what we know and where we have the credibility, then we are more likely to be heard. If we speak up about everything, then people stop listening.

    That's my two cents.



    ------------------------------
    Chuck Kincaid
    Engagement Director
    Experis BI & Analytics Practice Business Analytics
    chuck.kincaid@experis.com
    ------------------------------



  • 21.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-30-2017 09:47
    Sorry Ron, Terry's criteria are the one's.

    ------------------------------
    Reinhard Vonthein

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  • 22.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 06-30-2017 11:46
    I depend on the ASA to defend the proper collection and analysis of data, especially by government agencies.  I also think it is appropriate and necessary for the ASA to take a stand on federal funding where cuts or changed priorities may adversely affect this.

    ------------------------------
    Jay Beder
    Professor
    University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
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  • 23.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 07-05-2017 09:37
    Dears,

    As it is customary, before making any decision, data needs to be collected to support your decision. Otherwise, there should be no story, and no statement. Statisticians are already accused of lying, and we better be careful. Once the numbers are collected, the story will not be a lie. Thank you, and have a nice, and safe  FOURTH of July.

    ------------------------------
    [Mohammed] [Shayib]
    [Associate Professor]

    ------------------------------



  • 24.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 07-06-2017 20:42
    Dr. Beder:

    In my post, I included my view of examples of appropriate issues the ASA should comment on as they represent professional statisticians. Those examples included assessing the underlying statistical methodology for collecting and analyzing federal data. But commenting on the statistical methodology which underlie, say, BLS estimates, is proper (again in my view) for the ASA, but commenting on the funding level for the BLS is not. You and others may rely on BLS data, and you and others may feel that BLS data is needed and worthwhile. But this is no more an issue for the ASA than if your political representatives decided to increase (or decrease) funding for social security. Surely, those receiving social security would think that decision important to them. But both are political decisions, requiring allocation of federal dollars, which is determined in our country by the political process, and neither decision has anything to do with the proper execution of statistical analysis. Since the federal budget is finite, dollars given to one area (say the BLS) must necessarily be taken from another area (say social security). To make this point clear, suppose our representatives decided to take all the BLS funding and put it entirely towards social security. Surely there are ASA members on social security who might applaud that decision, as well as ASA members who would decry that decision. Suppose the converse, i.e. money was removed from social security to add funding to the BLS. You and other members may approve, but others members may disapprove. Alternatively, many in the ASA may feel the NIH deserves more money than it gets and the BLS deserves less, and would want the ASA to lobby for that allocation. It is not and can't be the ASA's role, representing the proper practice of statistics and statisticians (some of whom are on social security, some of whom value the BLS or the NIH or the VA or other federal program), to lobby one way or another to allocate monies to this program or that one. If you feel a certain funding level is appropriate and necessary for the BLS (or any other part of the federal government) because you value that agency and its output, the proper venue to voice your views is through your elected representatives. The ASA should stick to representing its members, i.e. representing the profession and proper practice of statistics.

    To Rachel Braun and Andrew Eckstrom:

    I believe you both are asking the ASA to support your personal political preferences.You have grossly misrepresented the North Carolina law. However, if I look at the murder statistics in Baltimore where the victim is African American, a more telling statement might be:

    "The ASA has a responsibility to its members.  Hosting an ASA event in a state or city that endangers or discriminates against its members places them at risk.  An ASA event in Baltimore would clearly put African American members at risk, physically and legally.  Whatever one's views on progressive politics, we can probably agree that (at least some) ASA members would not have been adequately protected in Baltimore".

    Does it make sense to you that the ASA make this public statement?

    I agree with Chuck Kincaid's view on the matter: the variety of perceived dangers in a locale (from higher speed limits to gun control efficacy to bad health care and so forth), are endless.The ASA has no meaningful criteria to choose a locale based on ' the risk of endangered persons' or to weigh the various risks to its members. It should therefore refrain from making essentially political statements about a state or venue.

    Andrew, while you may believe strongly that there was statistical malfeasance propagated by Michigan in the Flint water case, this is a criminal legal issue for courts and juries to decide. I don't see how a legal matter is in the purview of the ASA. Further you imply willful misconduct, and, once again, motivation is a legal matter, not a statistical one. There have been criminal indictments in the matter. Let's wait and see where the trial goes.

    As for your unfairness of the unemployment question, Andrew, I agree that someone with training in reliability or accuracy could have helped write a better questionnaire. However, you seem to imply again that the employees of the state purposefully made the question unanswerable by ordinary human beings. That once again speaks to motivation. Could it have been just a dumb mistake, replicated millions of times in any number of situations and places over by any number of people who have no training in error rates or statistics? Is the newspaper report you included (and upon which you seem to base your frustration) reliable? Motivation is not a statistical methodology issue.

    The larger question (was bad practice of statistics behind the Flint water mess or the unemployment issue?) may rightfully be a question for statisticians. If so, expert witnesses in the criminal trial will certainly be heard (on both sides) and, if so, I would hope that someone with statistical training would get involved with the Michigan unemployment office.

    But consider what you are asking the ASA to do: intervene publicly in a state issue, one criminal, and both politically charged. I'm sure you feel strongly about these issues and perhaps feel the State of Michigan is poorly governed. But there are 50 states, and the ASA cannot investigate every perceived misapplication of statistical methodology to ascertain 'truth'. There are two sides to these issues, and taking your side may not represent other members views'.

    I believe Rachel and Andrew are both asking the ASA to intervene in state political matters (either governance or legal) which you both feel strongly about, but which I believe are highly inappropriate and outside the domain of the ASA.

     
    Terry

    Terry G. Meyer, Ph.D.
    President, Outcome Based Medicine
    919-815-9991

    This message and any attachment is confidential, intended only for the person(s) named above, and may also be privileged. Any use, distribution, copying or disclosure by any other person is strictly prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify us immediately by e-mail and delete the original message.
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  • 25.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 07-10-2017 13:12

    I am glad that ASA is asking for member opinions on the question of when ASA should make a public statement on an issue.

    My feeling is that ASA has recently made too many such statements.  In addition, I imagine that each one exerts at least a minor claim on ASA resources.

    As for scientific freedom and human/civil rights, I think the area is so broad that ASA involvement would rarely be feasible.  On the other hand, if I understand the Greece and Argentina situations correctly, then, in my opinion, ASA's statements were entirely suitable, as the situations were egregious and dealt with statisticians and statistics specifically.

    I believe that ASA statements should generally have a close relation to the more technical aspects of statistics and should be in agreement with the views of almost all ASA members.  If 30%, 20%, or 10% of the members would disagree with a statement, or would agree with it but don't think its subject is at all appropriate for ASA to deal with, then I don't think that ASA should issue it.  Determining whether a statement would be controversial (within the membership) should not ordinarily be very difficult.

    Finally, I think that ASA should be extremely careful about issuing a statement where ASA (along with its members) has a conflict of interest.  Producer groups are notorious for taking stands that they claim are in the public interest but in reality are basically self-serving:  Industry groups argue for restrictions on foreign trade on national-security or other grounds, but they really want to feather their own nests; occupational groups argue for mandatory occupational licensure based on public safety, but suppression of competition conveniently results; the California prison guards' union campaigns against marijuana legalization supposedly because of bad effects of marijuana, but they are also protecting their own jobs.

    Although no ASA statement is as blatant as these examples, nonetheless almost any ASA statement that advocates increased governmental funding or support for statistical endeavors involves a conflict of interest (regardless of what one might think of the merits of the statement).  The few direct beneficiaries are not the only ones who are helped; other statisticians benefit indirectly, at least to a degree, from the increase in demand (and therefore higher price) for statistical services.

               Dick Potthoff



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    Richard Potthoff
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  • 26.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 07-11-2017 15:35
    My vote is with Richard Potthoff who opines that " ... ASA has recently made too many such statements ... (and) each one exerts at least a minor claim on ASA resources."

    It is better that the ASA keep to Statistics and leave the social sword-fighting to others.

    ------------------------------
    Charles Annis
    Statistical Engineering
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  • 27.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 07-12-2017 10:02

    I would disagree with Richard Potthoff on the question of conflict of interest.  Funding for statistics research is not going to line our pockets, but is crucial for the continued health of the profession and for the service we provide to society.  Support for federal data collection and analysis has never been more important but is under serious threat.  These two things go to the core mission of the ASA, and I don't see why we should shy away from advocating for them.

      

    Jay H. Beder, Professor EMS E485
    Department of Mathematical Sciences                414-229-5280
    University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee          
    PO Box 413                      
    Milwaukee, WI  53201-0413






  • 28.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 07-12-2017 10:41
    When the issue does affect our members and pertain to our profession, I agree with others that it is appropriate for the ASA to make public statements.  Funding for statistical research and access to public data bases do qualify.

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    Angelique Zeringue, PhD
    Statistician
    Mercy Healthcare
    St. Louis, MO
    ------------------------------



  • 29.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 07-13-2017 12:44
    I disagree with Dr. Beder and those who believe the ASA should lobby for federal funding for research or data collection. The problem is that funding is a zero sum game, hence lobbying for increased federal funding for agencies such as the BEA or BLS or NIH etc. is de facto lobbying for decreased funding for other areas, such as defense, Medicare, Social Security, food stamps, etc.

    Worse, lobbying for increased funding for any one agency (e.g. BEA) is lobbying for decreased funding for other agencies (e.g. BLS).

    So to those who say the ASA should lobby for increased funding somewhere, I ask you, where would you ask the ASA specifically to lobby for cuts, whether other areas (Medicaid, etc.) or other agencies (BLS, etc.), or are you going to ignore the fact that other agencies have to be cut to increase funding in some agency?

    Allocation of resources is a difficult political problem, one, which at the federal level, Congress is charged with making. Agencies (be it the military or the BEA) have people to advocate on their own behalf, going through channels to the various committees. State allocation is even worse.

    My own choice may include increased funding for Medicare and decreased funding for NIH. I can make my preference known to my elected representatives or by voting, but the ASA should not be a political lobby for my specific partisan preferences (and budgets are surely partisan issues). Read the ASA Constitution, section II on objectives of the organization and the methods of achieving them. Read the ASA By Laws, Article XI part 1.

     
    Terry

    Terry G. Meyer, Ph.D.

    This message and any attachment is confidential, intended only for the person(s) named above, and may also be privileged. Any use, distribution, copying or disclosure by any other person is strictly prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify us immediately by e-mail and delete the original message.
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  • 30.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 07-12-2017 09:36
    ​See "Statistician Prosecuted in Greece for Doing His Job.  That's the sort of thing about which the ASA ought to make a strong public statement.

    ------------------------------
    Emil M Friedman, PhD
    emilfriedman@gmail.com
    http://www.statisticalconsulting.org
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  • 31.  RE: When should the ASA make a public statement on an issue?

    Posted 07-13-2017 12:44
    Only on statistical matters!

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    Daniel F. Heitjan, PhD
    ASA Fellow and Life Member
    Carrollton, TX USA
    ------------------------------