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  • 1.  Analytic approach to research suspended by Covid-19

    Posted 05-03-2020 11:53

    Hello,

    I have several studies in which the research was suspended due to the closure of university buildings and the stay-at-home mandate. All are protocol-driven. Some have not required participant visits or intervention during this time period. Other have enrolled participants at various stages of weekly visits and intervention. My questions are two.  Let's assume a RCT with participants randomized to 12 weeks of weekly treatments with primary outcome assessed at 12 weeks and 3- and 6-month follow-up for secondary endpoints. The between-groups difference in the longitudinal trajectory of outcomes using linear mixed models for repeated measures is the original statistical plan.

     

    1. How would you recommend analyzing the data of participants for which Covid-19 research suspension halted a) early participation, b) intermediate participation and c) late participation?

     

    1. What language would you recommend for describing this analytic approach in the Methods section of the research report? Bonus question: does anyone think there will be a universally adopted journal editorial policy for describing the statistical analysis of research interrupted by the pandemic?

    I am sure many are confronted with this problem and many different study designs will be affected. I am only proposing the example RCT as a means to focus the discussion.

    Thanks for your time and consideration. Stay safe everyone.

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    [Donald J] [McMahon]
    [Statistical Consulting Services]
    [Nyack] [NY]
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  • 2.  RE: Analytic approach to research suspended by Covid-19

    Posted 05-04-2020 06:58

    Dear Donald,

    The German regulators have provided a helpful document how to deal with discontinued recruitment, see
    https://www.bfarm.de/EN/Drugs/licensing/clinicalTrials/news/CT_COVID19.html;jsessionid=65F152E90375C1559879B3991E891F54.2_cid343
    In one of our trials we have taken this document as basis and act as follows:
    1. We have implemented a telephone interview to collect information about the primary endpoints.
    2. At the time when patients come for visits we ask for the same information once again.
    3. We will report the agreement.
    4. We will provide a description in the flow chart about protocol violations. Corona will most likely be the main reason for a violation of the observation time.
    5. The analyses will not be altered because we will be having telephone information about the primary endpoints plus measured endpoints at a later time point. The number of patients with delayed measurements will most likely just be 20 out of approximately 1000, thus a small proportion. And it will affect both treatment groups in the same way.

    Ad 1. I am unable to provide a clear answer because you have not described whether the data will be missing or whether the observational time frame will be shifted. If it is shifted you could modify your regression model according to the needs. The advantage is the missing data mechanism because of the pandemic. It is by design!
    Ad 2. In the specific study I have mentioned above, we have decided to inform the IRB about our procedure. If the Methods strategy is changed because of Corona, in my opinion it should be described as such. Many of us will experience protocol violations because of the various types of lockdowns implemented.

    Andreas



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    Andreas Ziegler
    Prof. Dr.
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  • 3.  RE: Analytic approach to research suspended by Covid-19

    Posted 05-05-2020 08:18
    ad 2. E9 estimand and analysis strategy can frame this intercurrent event. The oncoestimands group of BioPharm section put you through this step by step in their slidedeck. Say you switch from treatment policy strategy to hypothetical stretegy, as you want to know what results would have been without the pandemic. Then the estimand is effect size after adjustment for pandemic. This might be overall survival HR with time-dependent lockdown covariable or some competing risks estimand in their line of work. Bonus: My limited experience with publication of such would suggest transparent reasoning using such standard language while referencing the guidance. Journals that require the submission of the protocol will be glad to make the original plan and the justified amendment an online supplement to educate their readers.

    ad 1. I'd a) collect data on what was changed by the pandemic for all, X and Y variables, b) adjust for exposure to treatment, c) prespecify how these intercurrent events affect endpoint definition and imputation. This could mean that the treatment effect is nested within the pandemic indicator and just one of the two estimates is of interest or that weeks of treatment are a covariable. It could mean that endpoint data missing because of the pandemic are not imputed (missing at random) and assessments over the phone instead of in person are adjusted for that modality and the estimator given phone=0 is reported. A subgroup analysis by "pandemic" is a nice sensitivity analysis.

    My greatest concern here would be power, as fewer observations contribute to the estimand.  A pandemic*treatment interaction or subgroup analysis of data before the pandemic makes this clear. Increased event rates in both groups would shrink HR, OR, and RR towards 1, while lowered event rates would cut effective sample size via the SE. So you will need a journal with reviewers that know that P values of 0.049 and 0.051 are quite close to each other, or a sponsor that gladly waits out the pandemic - and your amendment - to open its pockets for recruitment of more subjects.

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    Reinhard Vonthein
    Universitaet zu Luebeck
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  • 4.  RE: Analytic approach to research suspended by Covid-19

    Posted 05-06-2020 12:01
    Hello All,

    I'd like to thank Andreas Ziegler for sharing the excellent advice and guidance documents for handling the interruption of a longitudinal study and subsequent missing data due to the suspension of research by the pandemic. The guidance documents are particularly useful. Also, Reinhard Vonthein provided a link to a slide deck from the 'oncoestimand group'. If you haven't looked at it, this is an excellent thoughtful enumeration of all of the issues and considerations that need to be examined and addressed when you approach analysis from a study interrupted by Covid-19 – or really any secular event.

     

    Finally, Lance Waller expressed an interest in building a bibliography of methodologies for analyzing data for studies interrupted by external events. I, for one, think this is an important objective. Such a bibliography could inform a white paper leading to a guidance for this problem.  I would be happy to serve as the secretary to such an effort if someone or some group is interested in taking the lead.

     

    Thanks for your response to this thread.



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    [Donald J] [McMahon]
    [Statistical Consulting Services]
    [Nyack] [NY]
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  • 5.  RE: Analytic approach to research suspended by Covid-19

    Posted 05-04-2020 09:26
    Thank you for opening this thread (CRTs interrupted by Covid19).

    In addition to the discussion, I would also be interested in any references to methods associated with trials experiencing unanticipated interruptions...while the Covid19 pandemic is global in scope, have there been other instances more local (trials interrupted by natural disaster, cholera outbreaks, etc.) that might provide some additional examples? 

    Building a bibliography would be a valuable contribution for all of us working on interrupted trials.

    Thanks!

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    Lance Waller
    Professor
    Emory University
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