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A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

  • 1.  A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-14-2020 11:11
    Dear follow statisticians, 

    Here is my letter to Mr. President. Here is the link in change.org: http://chng.it/srwP9Lt9q5

    Dear Mr. President,
    I am a biostatistician working at Hines Edward Jr. VA Hospital that is proudly serving our Veterans who have served our great country. I am so grateful to you, supporting the VA to do the job with all the necessary means and resources especially in the midst of this crisis not only in US but also globally. If I may, I would like to offer an additional perspective in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic and our economy.
    As you know well, COVID-19 is a different virus than the regular flu. Globally, it has been demonstrated that less than 5% of people who died of COVID-19 were less than 60 years old, and that less than 1% of people who died had no pre-existing conditions according to the website of the Worldodometers, which is very different from the statistics of seasonal flu and even of H1N1 in 1918. The COVID infected people with a normally-functioning immune system have mild or no symptoms, thus they may not choose to see a health care provider. This fact makes them to go all over the place without taking precautions and thus unwittingly spread it to others more widely than a seasonal flu. This fact is the main reason why this has become pandemic globally, and your administration is doing the best to stop spreading by stopping the whole country, except for essential services. Unfortunately, we are on the verge, if not already in the midst of an economic depression once again. The longer we stay in this situation, the more dire the economic and social consequences. Without a clearer understanding of the exact statistics surrounding this pandemic, the impact of economic depression has been and will be felt in many ways, including in the lives of our young and vibrant work force in this great country and in the world. We may be over-reacting according to Dr. Ioannidis' statistics (STATNEWS, 3/17/2020).
    Therefore, from the perspective of my statistical background and expertise, I am approaching this pandemic differently and would like to offer a proposal. I propose a targeted care. Since this does not severely impact healthy individuals without underlying illness/disease as described above, we need to focus on the target high-risk population-people with an underlying illness/disease even if they may be young. We should be providing different guidelines for two different populations; a vulnerable population with an underlying illness/disease and a normal healthy population.
    First, proactive care for the vulnerable population with underlying illness/disease. There are two groups; one who stays in a facility, such as a nursing home or a long-term care facility, and another in a personal home with and without a caregiver. We should proactively test those who are in such facilities as soon as possible and keep all the workers in the facilities free from COVID19 by any means, monitoring daily and providing any necessary resources. For those who are sick with or without caregiver, they may have a choice to come to be tested or call to receive the test kit, including the caregiver's. If positive, the patient should be admitted to the closest hospital or facility and the caregiver should be tested and treated according to the doctor's judgment (may need guidelines). If not sick, I would let the caregiver go and live freely except meeting those who have underlying sickness (need guidelines) but may come in as needed. If the caregiver is found positive and needs to be quarantined, do it at home but no one should even live/meet one's own family members with an underlying sickness for 14 days, unless other family member(s) is healthy and wants to be quarantined together.
    Secondly, as needed care for general population: For the general population, assuming they are healthy without an underlying illness/disease (which could include a person with diabetes or hypertension whose conditions are well-controlled and are otherwise healthy and working), they should be able to return to work, but maintaining social distancing from those who are 60 and older with underlying clinical risk factors (need guidelines). They should only report to the hospital/testing center for testing when they feel sick or have symptoms. For those who are tested positive, they may be categorized into three groups; severe sickness, mild symptoms and no illness. The first severely sick group should be hospitalized right away, and the people who are involved in caring such a person should be tested and treated accordingly. The second mild group should be decided by the health care professional, either to be hospitalized or quarantined, and the caregiver should be dealt in the same way if any. A person with no symptoms may be quarantined at home for 14 days but return for assessment or treatment if he or she feels sick with high temperature (need guidelines).
    In this way, we can conserve our resources and use it to provide and protect the right population who are in need, thus saving more lives and allowing more people to return to work sooner. Again if only 5% of those who are tested positive are categorized as severe, while 95% are mild or no symptoms, are we wisely spending our material and human resources accordingly?
    Due to spreading all our health care resources thinly for all cases of COVID-19, we may be neglecting those in need of emergency care due to other sicknesses. They may have to find an emergency room further from their location, or cannot find a specialist for their illness, or even a hospital bed or a surgery room to operate as necessary. Even though we cannot find the statistics on this kind of case now, I believe this is not a small number either.
    Concerning economy, here is my proposal. If we continue with the current plan, so far 16.8 million people filed unemployment insurance, and we estimate 20 million jobs will be lost (Business Insider). We need to fear the fear of now, neglecting the future disaster. Therefore, we must open them up as soon as possible, thus saving businesses and jobs as much as we can. This will be reducing the duration of the economic depression, thus benefiting the whole country, not only protecting the vulnerable population but also general population that are all impacted by the overall economic depression, especially our young and vibrant workforce in the long run.
    As a citizen of USA, I love this country and pray for you, Mr. President, and desire that our country serve as an exemplary shepherd nation, that also cares for the plight of others in our global economy. This is the most crucial time for our nation to rise again to our match our legacy of greatness by doing what is right and necessary even though the risks seem high and uncertain. But by walking forward with wisdom, our country may continue to shine our light brightly as the city on a hill. God bless America and help you!

    With humble and earnest prayer,

    Gideon Bahn

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    Gideon Bahn
    Lead Biostatistician at Hines VA Hospital
    Visiting Professor at Loyola University Chicago
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  • 2.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-14-2020 15:32
    Thank you for posting this.

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    David Stokar
    [Principal Statistician]
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  • 3.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-21-2020 12:12
    Thank you David.
    Gideon​

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    Gideon Bahn
    Lead Biostatistician at Hines VA Hospital
    Visiting Professor at Loyola University Chicago
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  • 4.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-15-2020 15:55
    We cannot draw a line in the sand between who is vulnerable and who is "general population" (especially when we need to consider the entire household, rather than individuals). Per CDC, "It is not yet known whether the severity or level of control of underlying health conditions affects the risk for severe disease associated with COVID-19. Many of these underlying health conditions are common in the United States: based on self-reported 2018 data, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes among U.S. adults was 10.1% (7), and the U.S. age-adjusted prevalence of all types of heart disease (excluding hypertension without other heart disease) was 10.6% in 2017 (8). The age-adjusted prevalence of COPD among U.S. adults is 5.9% (9), and in 2018, the U.S. estimated prevalence of current asthma among persons of all ages was 7.9% (7)."  https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6913e2.htm  It will be hard to find a significant number of households where no one in the home has any underlying condition, or any elderly household member.  

    And while it may not be an enormous percentage, there are still a lot of folks without underlying conditions who are getting critically ill and/or dying (including healthcare providers in the prime of their life).  This number would go up dramatically if we ease restrictions too soon.  The public health measures we are taking only feel like an over-reaction because they are working and saving lives.  

    We at the very least cannot ease restrictions on non-essential work and social distancing before the manufacturing industry has adequately caught up with the demand for PPE in hospitals, jails, nursing homes, the food industry, other industries, and for those who personally need it due to underlying health conditions.  It is simply too much to ask of our health care workers to put them in a position where they will definitely see an enormous spike in infected patients, and cannot expect to have enough protective gear.  Many will leave their jobs if their workplace becomes unsafe, and then the situation will deteriorate further (for all health conditions, not just COVID19).  

    There are not any easy answers here, and I appreciate the thoughtfulness folks are putting into trying to find solutions.  
    take care, 
    Deirdre


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    Deirdre Middleton
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  • 5.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-20-2020 16:53
    Thanks Deidre for your well thought-out response.

    1) I agree that it is not easy to make the criteria between the vulnerable population and the general. Though I incline to the age-adjusted prevalence of all type, including weights of each disease and age using the data we already collected, but I cannot but say it is not easy. Therefore, the criteria should be made with the clinical experts. Especially, when we want to open for the business sooner, we need to do our best to provide the criteria, so that we have the plan for the focused care.

    2) I believe there are plenty of statistics, showing that those who have no underlying disease have much smaller percentage of death rate than a regular flu.

    3) The last one is unknown. So far, through the example of  South Korea we see the proactively following up the infected (or possible infected) people have reduced the number of infection and death rate.

    Yes, I totally agree with you that there is no easy answer. But we got to do it asap because the impact of foreseeable economy depression is much greater than the reactive care, which prolongs the lifecycle of the virus and lengthening the economic lockdown. We always make a choice with reasonable evaluation for all, not or less neglecting the care for the vulnerable population.

    Best,
    Gideon



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    Gideon Bahn
    Lead Biostatistician at Hines VA Hospital
    Visiting Professor at Loyola University Chicago
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  • 6.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-28-2020 01:10
    Deirdre Middleton has good points in her contribution. I also did not see a separation into lower and higher risk populations as being practical, and still do not. Further, I applaud this statement in her comments:

    "It is simply too much to ask of our health care workers to put them in a position where they will definitely see an enormous spike in infected patients, and cannot expect to have enough protective gear."

    Well said, Deirdre.

    And because retired health care workers have been asked to come back to work, aren't they at high risk?


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    James Knaub (Jim)
    Retired Lead Mathematical Statistician
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  • 7.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-21-2020 11:23
    dear all,  I think that we are coming to the basic difficulty in this pandemic. Drawing a separation line means a preliminary mass testing. For now we are far from it. They say in daily briefings that we are around some millions, therefore we have more or less 1% population tested. In addition, testing is not for ever. I mean that tested guys have to be tested again and oftentimes because they can get the virus after being tested. Last but not least, false positive and false negatives risk to make the testing almost useless. Theoretically, just one false negative could infect a whole city. Italy case is an example: the patient number 0 infected two or three other guys and then in a couple of weeks things went almost out of control.
    Frankly I miss any idea of how to go on. The best thing I would suggest is counting all new deaths, including economic crisis generated ones, and find a strategy for minimizing the overall number. For instance, in Italy the death toll is 20% more than usual of which a large part - but not all - due to virus. The other part includes suicides and other deaths indirectly bound to it. What Trump says is right: we have to consider also suicides in the count and minimize virus + indirectly related deaths.
    In addition, with a large and representative sample we should estimate how many are already immune because they recovered after being infected. I think that, without having planned it, we could end up with a flock immunization. It is enough that 60% of the population develops the right antibodies. 


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    [Ulderico] [Santarelli]
    [Las Vegas][Nevada]
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  • 8.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-21-2020 12:10
    ​Hi Ulderico,

    Yes, I agree that it is not easy drawing the line to separate between the vulnerable and the healthy. This does not need a mass testing, but we can use the data collected already. With the help of clinicians and statisticians, we may be able to find the guidelines using important confounders, such as age and underlying illnesses.

    Now, we have tested about 1% of population and may increase to 2-3%, but we expect that 20% will lose their jobs if we stay in this way of lockdown. We cannot just wait and wait until our economy depression overpowers and impacts all people as the time of 1930, especially killing even innumerable healthy and vibrant people. What is worse, the impact of American economic depression will be felt tremendously in so many other poor countries where there is no welfare system or cannot provide any for their citizen with food.

    Other countries, like China and South Korea, even expect that this virus may come back next winter. Unless we have a proactive plan to deal with this, we may face something bigger and uncontrollable situation. What should we do?

    With broken heart,
    Gideon

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    Gideon Bahn
    Lead Biostatistician at Hines VA Hospital
    Visiting Professor at Loyola University Chicago
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  • 9.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-21-2020 13:31
    Note that while we DO absolutely want to reduce the harmful effects on the economy, it does not appear to be true that economic depressions actually increase overall mortality rates. 

    Study arguing that the Great Depression substantially decreased mortality rates:
    https://www.pnas.org/content/106/41/17290

    Another study arguing that the decrease was mostly due to other factors and the actual economic contraction had little effect (although the overall effect does seem to be a mortality decrease).https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/great-depression-had-little-effect-on-death-rates-46713514/

    (How to best reduce economic harm is, as far I can gather, complicated and as far as I can tell the people with relevant expertise say that one of the necessary conditions (unless we get an effective vaccine) is large-scale testing.)

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    Michael Ikeda
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  • 10.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-22-2020 08:36
    ​We missed the boat, and we will pay for it. South Korea had its first case on 1/20/2020 like we did, and instituted GPS Contact tracing and massive testing. We did neither, and we have no idea of the prevalence or who got it and recovered.  Exposing healthy people to the disease by lifting social distancing could expose others and themselves to contagion.  The Covid-19 death rate in the US is over 25 times that of the US. Check out my submission Monday 4/20.   

    Fix the public health problem before the economy.

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    Jon Shuster
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  • 11.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy
    Best Answer

    Posted 04-22-2020 08:03

    Not commenting on the science, I have little experience in health care. Instead, I would like to address the framing and targeting of the letter. The content is scientific, well-thought out, and clearly expressed. That's a serious problem with a President incapable of understanding science and not interested in learning, is determined anti-science, and appears to frame this entire event through the lens of a re-election campaign. 

    This excellent letter might have much greater impact if addressed to and shared with health care leaders - as indeed you have begun by posting here. Circulating the letter to state-level health care leaders will be better received, resulting in greater effect. I hope the letter is more widely shared in the medical community, beyond biostatistics. I expect it is there that the letter will provide the greatest benefit. 



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    David J Corliss, PhD
    Director, Peace-Work www.peace-work.org
    davidjcorliss@peace-work.org
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  • 12.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-22-2020 16:53
    ​David,

    I think so too. I will take you advice and reach out to the state gov.

    If you want to, you can also circulate this to others. Politicians usually listen to when there are a lot people sign/support such an idea. 

    With prayer,
    Gideon 

     


    ------------------------------
    Gideon Bahn
    Lead Biostatistician at Hines VA Hospital
    Visiting Professor at Loyola University Chicago
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  • 13.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-23-2020 14:00
    Edited by Lori Silver 04-23-2020 14:00
    David,

    I agree that this should be handled at a state level. 

    I usually just read on ASA Connect and have never posted but when I see blatant bias against the president when you said "That's a serious problem with a President incapable of understanding science and not interested in learning, is determined anti-science, and appears to frame this entire event through the lens of a re-election campaign."  This seems like CNN talking points or even worse you're listening to Nancy Pelosi.  Yes, he does talk about other information responding to reporters' questions and defends himself from his constant attacks so you can easily label that part as "re-election campaign" but the shutting down of our entire country is due to advise from both Dr. Birx, Dr. Fauci and other science based professionals (pro science).  All this being said the President's decisions have been based on science so I am not sure how you can label that "anti-science".  He has also pushed decisions to the States with science-based guidelines.  I usually let the little digs to the President go but, to me, what you said was just wrong and, of course, this entire post is my personal opinion.  

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    Lori Silver

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  • 14.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-23-2020 15:36
    I'm not a fan of Mr. Trump. However we should keep in mind that his responsibilities are wide-ranging and include economy. Therefore one has to balance death from virus only and deaths due to virus related causes. In Italy, were I was born, they face a huge spike of left ventricular infarctions because ER's and ICU have no room for them. Suicides triggered by a PTS due to virus should also be taken into account 
    in my opinion, all deaths are equal.
    of course stemming virus is tremendously important to protect non infected people, however no on should be forced out from hospitals because some kind of death has a privilege.
    all nations learnt a tough lesson: the Capacity of Health Care Systems should always be kept 2 or more times in confront of the average demand.

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    [Ulderico] [Santarelli]
    [Las Vegas][Nevada]
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  • 15.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-23-2020 20:47
    Dear all 

    I really appreciate the arguments being brought up here and the delicate balance between having to deal with a very contagious virus and affecting the lives of wide swaths of our population economically. I also think that some arguments raised here are not as widely covered in the media as they desire to be. These are (i) on the longer term, significantly different measures are warranted for the at-risk population as opposed to the gerenral public, (ii) the effect of flock immunization, which according to recent analyses may be closer within reach than early numbers suggested and (iii) deaths indirectly resulting from COVID measures.
    While I see great simulations and nonlinear mixed-effects models that apply to the near term, I would like to see models considered that also account for these factors. I would be particularly interested in publications that describe how to account for the tapering effect of flock immunization, which has to be accounted for in any discussion on the "second peak", which presently seems to be a popular topic up to the highest levels. 
    I think that our community is in the perfect position to jump in with solidly underpinned scientific results. 

    Best regards
    Sven

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    Sven Serneels
    Director, Data Analytics
    Aspen Technology
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  • 16.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-24-2020 09:47
    This is not a forum for politics, but on the question of the President's receptivity to science-based advice and policies, yesterday's press briefing is revealing. Vanity Fair (not CNN) reports: "Yes, Trump Actually Suggested Injecting Disinfectants Into Your Veins Could Cure Coronavirus." In the press conference at which he floated the idea of cleansing the body with disinfectants, he proposed that "it would be interesting to check that" (USA Today).
    In the same vein, a FOX News TV station in Utah reported that: "During his briefing, Trump also suggested that ultraviolet light could kill the virus [inside the body]. Dr. Deborah Birx, the response coordinator for the White House's coronavirus task force, was later asked about that course of treatment during Thursday's briefing and said she was not aware that light could be used as a COVID-19 treatment. 'Not as a treatment,' Birx said. 'I mean, certainly fever is a good thing. When you have a fever, it helps your body respond.' Trump then quickly cut Birx's answer off."

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    David Kaye
    Distinguished Professor Emeritus
    Penn State Law
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  • 17.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-24-2020 14:29
    Edited by Lori Silver 04-24-2020 15:42

    You are right this is not a political forum.  I would suggest you do more research on the quality of your sources (Vanity Fair) and maybe watch the briefings yourself.  Regarding UV light I believe there is research underway looking at this for a possible treatment so it may or may not be viable.  I could go on and on to defend my point of view but it is all a moot point to the original post.  The bottom line is our entire country has been shut down due to science-based advise.  What we (our State and Federal government) does from here should continue to be science based and it should address our economy.   



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    Lori Silver
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  • 18.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-24-2020 17:34
    Hi Lori, We agree about the importance of rational, science-based policy. See, e.g., http://for-sci-law.blogspot.com/2020/03/sars-cov-2-and-risk-perception.html and later postings. Whether the steps the administration has taken are consistently those of science advisors is hardly obvious. Suspending immigration? How much timely advice to act appropriately "from Dr. Birx, Dr. Fauci and other science based professionals (pro science)" did the administration reject? This is an administration that left the post of science advisor to the president vacant for years.

    You stated that the observation (which was not mine) that the president does not "understand[] science and [is] not interested in learning" sounded like rhetoric from Nancy Pelosi or CNN talking points. In response, it seemed apt to note reports from very different sources -- yes, even from Vanity Fair -- of the president's latest unscientific ideas for dealing with COVID-19. What research did President Trump explicitly propose yesterday in a recorded public session (and disavow today as "sarcastic")? According to Fox News:

    "So supposing we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it's ultraviolet or just very powerful light. And I think you said that hasn't been checked but you're going to test it," Trump said, looking over to [Bill Bryan, the head of the science and technology directorate at the Department of Homeland Security].
    "And then I said, supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you're gonna test that, too. Sounds interesting, right?"
    "And then I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or, or almost a cleaning? Because you see it gets on the lungs and it does a tremendous number, so it will be interesting to check that. So that you're going to have to use medical doctors. But it sounds, it sounds interesting to me. So we'll see."



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    David Kaye
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  • 19.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-24-2020 20:13
    Edited by Lori Silver 04-24-2020 20:13
    David Kaye,

    In response to your political bias, we do agree on the importance of rational, science-based policy.  As far as your example, I will have to read it when I have time.  I will, however, check to see who wrote it, what organization it is from, look at both confirming and disconfirming information to assess the validity.  

    If I understand you correctly, you are saying not having a science advisor is indicative of rejection of science-based advice by the administration.  Also, if I understand you correctly, you are saying suspending immigration during a pandemic indicates that it is not obvious the administration is taking the right steps.  My response to both is that your evidence is weak and based on assumptions.  I see real actions that have been taken like setting up a team of experts, having the experts talk about what is going on, closing down the country with guidelines to the states, showing the statistics that they use to help make their decisions, limiting access to our country during a pandemic, etc. as real evidence without assumptions that our President is using science.

    Regarding the words you quoted from the President, you left out some of the words.  I went to Whitehouse.gov to see what the transcript said rather than relying on a news agency.  I also looked at the video of what was actually said and the tone of his voice.  

    "So we'll see. " [this is where you ended it]  "But the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute, that's - that's pretty powerful."  In my opinion, which is all it could be for both of us is that using the word "concept" is indicative of a plan or an intention to apply science to a real world problem.

    Lastly, we can go back and forth on politics but the bottomline is still there.  We have shut down the country due to science-based advice and we need to continue to be science based to open up our country and get our economy moving again.  



    ------------------------------
    Lori Silver
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  • 20.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-24-2020 19:56
    Lori

    We're statisticians. We like to think we base our decisions on data. Here's my data regarding your statement that Trump's decisions are based on science : 

    1. Climate change is accepted by science, Trump is a climate denier, he blames it on the Chinese. 
    2. Trump attacked wind farms as harmful - there's no scientific evidence for this. 
    3. Trump said energy saving bulbs can cause cancer - but they emit less radiation than natural sunlight. 
    4. Trump argued that countries with Ebola should be banned because it would spread the virus in the US - there is no evidence that this policy would do anything. 

    More recently he has said vaccines are harmful, he denied the Covid19 virus threat for weeks longer than his scientific advisors recommended, he recommended chloroquin over the objections of his medical advisors, and last night he suggested people inject lysol to rid themselves of the virus.  My data supports David's statement. Can we see your data? 

    Stan Altan



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    Stan Altan
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  • 21.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-27-2020 16:40
    Stan and David have presented evidence-based arguments.

    For the last few years I have been distressed about the political misuse of the word "bias." Bias has a specific statistical meaning. In no context should it be taken to mean someone who does not agree with you because they pay attention to facts and you do not. When Person A says "You are biased because you don't like my favorite leader," but in fact the accused is trying to argue (true) facts and evidence, then it is Person A who is making a "biased" statement.  An investigation is done based on facts. Period. The End.

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    James Knaub (Jim)
    Retired Lead Mathematical Statistician
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  • 22.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-29-2020 11:51
    ​I am wondering if part of the discussion is misunderstanding about how people say things and the multiple interpretations of meaning assigned.  I have been disappointed repeatedly when I heard an interpretation of an event in the made in the media and repeated over and over as if this was the way it had to be understood, but when I listened to or watched the event itself, or read the transcript I got a completely different interpretation.  There is much humor (especially subtle humor by its very nature) and even playfulness that is missed.  Whether we like the humor or not, perhaps we should set the example with some humility and flexibility in our interpretations of people's meanings.  If we are scientists and open minded, perhaps we should understand there are more possible ways to interpret what is said or heard than just the collection of ways we see.  Further, perhaps we should remember that we are finite and do not know all science and cannot really characterize what is know as science.  The history of science is replete with examples of overconfidence and subsequent embarrassment.  How do we know we are not now doing the same thing?

    It is tempting to make sweeping statements about science in general, but perhaps more humility is in order here.  There was a claim in this exchange not long ago that there is no scientific evidence to claim that wind farms are harmful.  Such a claim merely shows the claimant is not well informed on the topic.  The bird death rate is know to be substantially higher around wind farms, and believe it or not, the noise level of some of the large windmills is around 45 decibels (about the noise level of a quiet dishwasher).  This might not seem like a lot of noise to us in our noisy city environment, but it repels some animals and reduces their available habitat.  Of course, almost any change we make in the natural order has negative implications.  Usually we try to make a decision based on our perception whether the benefit is worth the cost.  Unfortunately, we often to not know the full cost of our benefits.

    That people should be cautious when making claims based on models, should hardly need to be questioned among us, especially when the model does not predict satisfactorily--and what constitutes "satisfactorily" depends on the context and on the evaluator.  When we look at models, we know we have to recognize them as approximations and make allowances, but not everyone is satisfied with this kind of blurry (fuzzy) thinking.  And predictive models often assume a steady state that only depends on initial conditions, but have no way of identifying unexpected "shocks" to the system, like volcano eruptions and sudden changes in solar activity for weather, or crashes (or pandemics) for financial markets.  How many times have we heard of or seen model predictions that were "wrong"?  It hardly seem surprising that people would be put off with models and their predictions in general.  Proper education concerning appropriate expectations regarding these features of models is part of our responsibility as statisticians, and we can do better.

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    Raoul Burchette
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  • 23.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-30-2020 13:07
    James Knaub said, 
    "For the last few years I have been distressed about the political misuse of the word "bias." Bias has a specific statistical meaning. In no context should it be taken to mean someone who does not agree with you because they pay attention to facts and you do not. When Person A says "You are biased because you don't like my favorite leader," but in fact the accused is trying to argue (true) facts and evidence, then it is Person A who is making a "biased" statement.  An investigation is done based on facts. Period. The End. "

    Yes, "bias" does have a. specific statistical meaning. However, long before it had that specific statistical meaning, it had other meanings, including "prejudice in favor of or against one thing, person, or group compared with another, usually in a way considered to be unfair." (See https://catalogofbias.org/2018/04/10/a-word-about-evidence-4-bias-etymology-and-usag/ for more discussion.)

    Speaking more broadly: We often use terms in statistics that have technical meanings that differ from the "ordinary everyday" meanings of those words. One consequence of this is that when teaching statistics (and when talking about statistics to people not well educated in statistics), we need to be careful to distinguish between technical and "common culture" uses of the same word. For example, the word "random" is used in statistics to mean something very different from the "common culture" meaning of "haphazard".

    ------------------------------
    Martha Smith
    University of Texas
    ------------------------------



  • 24.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-30-2020 16:04
    Martha,

    I agree with you and your well thought out message regarding bias and how we as statisticians need to be careful not to confuse the common or "ordinary everyday" meaning with the precise statistical meaning.  And your quote from James Knaub is well taken.  We need to rely on facts and scientific evidence.  Blanket statements like "Person A or Person B does not believe in science" does not help unite us.  Specific criticism over incorrect facts clearly adds credibility to our organization, lessens divide and makes us better.

    Regards,
    Dave

    ------------------------------
    David Olsen
    Consultant
    StarPwr Analytics, LLC
    ------------------------------



  • 25.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-27-2020 17:00
    Stan and David have presented evidence-based arguments.

    For the last few years I have been distressed about the political misuse of the word "bias." Bias has a specific statistical meaning. In no context should it be taken to mean someone who does not agree with you because they pay attention to facts and you do not. When Person A says "You are biased because you don't like my favorite leader," but in fact the accused is arguing (true) facts and evidence, then it is Person A who is making a "biased" statement. An investigation is done based on facts.

    ------------------------------
    James Knaub (Jim)
    Retired Lead Mathematical Statistician
    ------------------------------



  • 26.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-29-2020 01:13
    Sadly, through these tough times we have a divided country.  I know the ASA is non-political but I continue to read anti-Trump messages.  As a member for over 30 years, I am rethinking as to whether I want to continue to send my $200 a year or so to read  clearly political comments.  I get them in other news forms.

    Dave

    ------------------------------
    David Olsen
    Consultant
    StarPwr Analytics, LLC
    ------------------------------



  • 27.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-29-2020 08:48
    Yes! Both for anti-Trump and pro-Trump politicizing. In this regard, one should distinguish two sorts of political messaging. (1) Is this forum an appropriate place for professionals to discuss sending a letter to the president urging the adoption of some policy or other based on statistical acumen or data? I would have thought so, but it does invite the response that the letter would be ineffective. (2) Is it appropriate to complain that a contributor who questions the practical value of reaching out in this way sounds like CNN or Nancy Pelosi? That just diverts the conversation from the issues on which statisticians, qua statisticians, can make contributions.

    ------------------------------
    David Kaye
    ------------------------------



  • 28.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-29-2020 12:40
    David Kaye, I thought we were done talking about politics but I have to address your statement "Is it appropriate to complain that a contributor who questions the practical value of reaching out in this way sounds like CNN or Nancy Pelosi? That just diverts the conversation from the issues on which statisticians, qua statisticians, can make contributions." 

    It is appropriate when a person uses media talking points (used over and over again - same words) as a point to consider in a decision about where to send the letter which is what I was responding to. You, however, say this isn't a place for politics but then you go on and on putting me in a position to defend what I said. If you want to continue talking politics you should respond privately so you don't divert the conversation to just politics.  I have talked privately with some people to not take away from Gideon's great letter.  Hopefully this is my last post online on this subject to defend my words. 

    Believe it or not, I am not alone on how I feel because I have had private conversations with some people.  I also feel the same way as David Olsen overall.  I have had some nice, relevant conversations with people I disagree with and the conversation was a healthy debate with well defined arguments.  Unfortunately, to David Olsen's point, we are a divided country.  My hope is that statistics (which is very important to me) could be without political leaning in every way.  Politicians will always have to rely on statistics for different reasons but we don't need to rely on politics to make points. 


    ------------------------------
    Lori Silver
    ------------------------------



  • 29.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-29-2020 13:51
    Thank you for posting this.






  • 30.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-29-2020 13:52
    Thank you for posting this.

    ------------------------------
    David Stokar
    [Principal Statistician]
    ------------------------------



  • 31.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 05-01-2020 10:51

    In my earlier remarks, I suggested - based on previous evidence such at the 2016 Scientific American article - that 

    1. An open letter addressed to the President is not the most effective channel for scientific advocacy
    2. Working with state-level government organizations is more effective 
    3. Working with the excellent ASA Science Policy and Advocacy team is most effective

    Some have been concerned that this is too political and defended the President. As my argument has always been the best practices for advocacy, please allow me to ask those who raising these concerns - for example, Lori Silver: Do you believe an open letter to the President is effective? If not, what does your experience in advocacy show works best? You have suggested what we shouldn't do. What do you think we should do to address the President? 

    Thank you!



    ------------------------------
    David J Corliss, PhD
    Director, Peace-Work www.peace-work.org
    davidjcorliss@peace-work.org
    ------------------------------



  • 32.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 05-01-2020 16:29
    Edited by Lori Silver 05-01-2020 17:22
    David Corliss, with all due respect, asking me how I would handle Gideon's letter is argument deflection because it is different from what I brought up in the first place but it was a great try.

    My problem was, simply, your political bias as a decision point and the snide way you referred to the President.  As I stated in my first post, I usually let the little digs go but it is concerning that a community like ours would be so blatant on their political leaning which blurs the lines of factual evidence and political bias.

    I never had a problem with your second post stating your conclusion other than your reference to the 2016 Scientific American article pointing to Tweets that were never fact checked so I let it go as I had been doing in the past.  That being said, I'm not sure Tweets should be considered data since they are limited on word count and could be misunderstood or taken out of context.  I also, wasn't appreciative of your thanks to David Kaye and Stan Altan for their "data-driven" perspectives since their perspectives weren't data-driven but that is what happens when you have political bias so I shouldn't be shocked. 

    I get it, I am not representing the popular point-of-view in this community but please don't assume I am the only one that feels this way.  I never was a fan of group think.  I do enjoy debate and I don't disrespect anyone's point-of-view, I just disagree. I think I am still allowed to disagree, or maybe not . . .

    ------------------------------
    Lori Silver
    ------------------------------



  • 33.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 05-02-2020 13:49

    Lori

     Reading your responses leaves much to be desired.  

     Let me remind you of the original premise of the discussion, something that seems to have gotten sidelined by you and some others who have contributed to this thread.  

     David Corliss wrote referring to the original letter: "The content is scientific, well-thought out, and clearly expressed. That's a serious problem with a President incapable of understanding science and not interested in learning, is determined anti-science …".

    In your first response, you countered with the claim "…the President's decisions have been based on science…". So that broad statement was your initial contribution to challenging David's premise.  Subsequent letters from you and others diverged to more or less mount a political defense, never really addressing the premise. 

    I focused on just David's broad statement and presented you with my data supporting David's statement. My data was Trump's own words. Words do matter, especially coming from the President, but it seems that you do not regard someone's words as data. If that's the case, then it seems there's a double standard operating here. You want to accept the words that you like, but reject those that you don't like.  Tweets for example you wrote should not be considered "data" but your argument is convenience based.

    But more than that, we as a profession have an essential interest in promoting a data and science based decision making principle. If we see egregious violations of this among our leaders, I believe we have an institutional, as well as personal obligation to encourage otherwise. In connection with this, we can have dissenting opinions, and we should present our positions as clearly as possible, but facts are not to be confused with opinion or political bias.



    ------------------------------
    Stan Altan
    ------------------------------



  • 34.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 05-02-2020 15:46
    Edited by Lori Silver 05-02-2020 16:12

    Stan,

    I do not have any interest in going through all my arguments again.  You clearly give more weight to your political leaning and on the remark about the president being anti-science.  I still haven't seen factual evidence that is true. You are free to assume whatever you want.  I prefer to stick with observation on the fact that the whole country was shut down by the President and his administration due to science-based advice.  I heard Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx say, in their own words, the president listens to their advice.  This observation proves the fact that the President is listening to science-based advice to shut down the country due to COVID-19.  Maybe you can look at some of their interviews.  I can go on and on to make my point, again, but the problem is you will never believe or even entertain the idea I am right or I have a point.  That's what political bias does.  It closes your mind to any other information that could be relevant (like observation).  

    If we want to promote data and science we need to keep our eyes open and be willing to read contradictory information that may not always measure up to your preconceived ideas.  

    Lastly, take a look on the internet, on what you can find about science with politics on both sides. If you can't see that science is being negatively impacted by politics it is a problem for our profession.  I read from both left and right leanings.  I view methodologies regardless of the outcome, I seek every point of view and eventually I form an opinion.  I don't look at a list of Tweets and only look at left leaning information to form an opinion about a person or a situation.   So, I will leave you with one possible right leaning opinion piece quote I think had a great point (which you can completely disregard because you are left leaning): 

    "As Carl Cannon, Washington bureau chief and executive editor of RealClearPolitics, recently wrote, political bias and social "wokeness" infect everything. From news, sports, weather and entertainment to the food we eat, everything is politicized - even, sadly but not surprisingly, science and medicine and even something as frightening and life-disrupting as the COVID-19 coronavirus, as we saw this past week when the Senate and then the House fought over the terms of a relief package for a nation in virtual lockdown." 

    https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/489962-what-if-the-sky-is-falling-coronavirus-models-are-simply-wrong



    ------------------------------
    Lori Silver
    ------------------------------



  • 35.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 05-02-2020 21:51

    I hate to keep this discussion going and I hope it ends soon - so no need to respond. It may be best for all of us to agree to disagree and end it but I will say a few more words hopefully to help folks understand where some of us are coming from. Just to be clear, I respect all our members opinions and I am in no way trying to attack anyone or make us more divisive during these trying times.

    I am starting to think that one of the main reasons for misunderstanding different points of view is related to perception. Let me explain.

    Over the last 30 plus years, I worked for a few very large US and British international companies. A lot of issues became newsworthy over the years including workplace harassment, discrimination and political comments. We had to get annual training by human resources and legal. Treating our coworkers with respect was always one of the main messages. We were told that even it everything someone said was with good intentions, how the person would perceive of what was said was even more important. 

    I think this makes sense. So even though it was common to make mention of the 1918 Spanish flu in past years, I now only refer to it as the 1918 flu to avoid any sense of discrimination. I do the same thing with the 2019 virus and avoid the country where it was believed to have originated just so I do not offend people.

    If I attended a meeting with coworkers and someone made a statement which was believed to be not factual, I don't think a response like "I disagree and this is the reason why.." would have been considered to be offensive by anyone. The person who made the original statement would not feel like they were being attacked and we could work things out.

    If instead, the person responding said "you are incapable of understanding science or facts and not interested in learning..." I think the person would be offended. Words matter!

    Lastly, when I use to prepare year-end evaluations for my direct reports I always directed my comments in two buckets. Things that went well and things that need improvement. I think providing both positive and negative constructive criticism is most productive way to go. Even for our leaders.

    Kind regards,
    Dave



    ------------------------------
    David Olsen
    Consultant
    StarPwr Analytics, LLC
    ------------------------------



  • 36.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 05-03-2020 01:37
    Apologies if this gets entered twice. I had trouble with the url below taking over.  

    An interesting aside: 
    The Spanish flu did not originate in Spain.  The press was allowed to talk about the flu there and people assumed.  One possibility I heard was Kansas.  I checked and this was confirmed by the Kansas Historical Society.  That's what it says here, anyway: 

    https://www.kshs.org/kansapedia/flu-epidemic-of-1918/17805

    Flu Epidemic of 1918


    ------------------------------
    James Knaub (Jim)
    Retired Lead Mathematical Statistician
    ------------------------------



  • 37.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 05-18-2020 08:40
    Hi,  I am not fully understanding this discussion. I believe if you read my monograph, " Advanced Sampling Theory with Applications: How Michael Selected Amy. Kluwer Academic Publication, Vol 1&2, pages 360-367", you may get an answer.  I also believe that this monograph is free available online somewhere as my students always download it in free.  
    Regards,
    Sarjinder


    ------------------------------
    [Sarjinder] [Singh]
    [Professor]
    [Texas A&M University-Kingsville]
    ------------------------------



  • 38.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 05-03-2020 13:32

    Lori

    Following up your link, let me suggest this nonpartisan perspective that might be informative for you :

    https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/08/science-under-trump-report.pdf

    It's a little dated now published almost 2 years ago, but it starts out with the statement  "A year and a half into the Trump administration, its record on science policy in several agencies and departments is abysmal. Evidence rolls in daily that this administration is undermining long-established processes for science to inform public policy (Carter et al. 2017)."  

    I am trying hard to provide data and you come back with personal attacks and slogans. 



    ------------------------------
    Stan Altan
    ------------------------------



  • 39.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 05-04-2020 11:50

    Stan,

    Here we go again. I would like to agree to disagree and, frankly, I am the person being attacked to no end, personally.  If you, somehow, think you were personally attacked I apologize because that is not my intention.  

    This analysis by The Union of Concerned Scientists tells me, with data analysis, how sixteen science-based federal government agencies felt in 2018.  I could dig deeper to see what was going on in 2018 with the federal government agencies to feel this way but it is too off subject.  I consider this data (we agree) but it doesn't dispute the fact the president is listening to science-based advice on COVID-19 from science-based professionals in 2020 to the point of shutting down our country.


    Respectfully, and not meant to be personal, by your logic you are saying that a person, regardless of their actions today on a current event, is summed up by the person's perceived past statements whether true or not.  Again, you are free to feel that way.  I disagree.


    My point about politics and science is not personal to you and I do think it is a problem for our profession as I previously stated.  There should be no politics in science which was why I referenced the article in my last post.  Political bias is here, to my great disappointment, which I find to be a threat to science overall.  

    I have learned a lesson though, do not speak up on negative statements towards the president made by other members in this science-based community because it isn't a popular opinion.  This is the opposite from what I ask my staff to do.  I ask them to disagree with each other and to speak up.  For example, I ask them to poke holes in my logic, opinion or analysis because I actually believe it gives us a better data product.  Sometimes a person has a point and I could choose to address it or not but my eyes were opened to their opinion.  

    Again I agree to disagree. 



    ------------------------------
    Lori Silver
    ------------------------------



  • 40.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 05-05-2020 11:23

    Hang tough, Lori.  When I was an undergrad in the mid-1960s, professors in all disciplines taught their subjects giving no hint as to their politics.  Slowly over the decades, what I was observing retreated to my confident belief that at least, surely, mathematics, statistics and the sciences, by their nature, would not succumb to the infiltration.  Sadly, for quite a few years now, we have been beyond even that.  Your response was apt.  I encourage those posting on the ASA Connect Digest to avoid political digs and talking points.

     



    ------------------------------
    [Mick] [Norton]
    [Professor Emeritus]
    [College of Charleston][]
    ------------------------------



  • 41.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 05-06-2020 08:28

    Kudos to Lori and Mick for your postings!

    My wishes

    1)  That we keep our focus on the two major areas of impact of COVID-19:  public health and economic stability and that our focus extends beyond the US particularly to those countries that are less blessed than are we in the US.

    2)  Given the fluid and evolving nature of our knowledge of COVID-19 and its impact, that our discussions would not be dogmatic and elitist.

    3)  As much as humanly possible that our discussions would not be motivated by biases and irrelevant agendas.

    4)  That we would not resort to ad hominem comments about posters or others.

    5)  That we would be united by our common humanity.

    ------------------------------
    L Marlin Eby
    Professor of Mathematics & Statistics
    Messiah College
    COVID-19 Survivor
    ------------------------------



  • 42.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 05-06-2020 14:32
    Stan & Lori,
    Looking over the article published in August 2018, resulted in two observations:

    From page two, I quote "At some federal agencies, the situation for scientists is worse than it was during the Bush or Obama administrations." 

    Could the context be that this may have happened during other administrations as well?

    On page 11, I quote "A total of 4,211 scientists responded to the survey; response rates ranged from 19 percent for the USGS to 2 percent for the Census Bureau where scientific staff could not be identified from the sample."

    Thus 4,211 responded out of "more than 63,000" surveyed. That is a non-response rate of 81% to 98%. This that a good survey?

    Could confirmation bias be present in this resource?

    ------------------------------
    Mark Best
    LECOM-Bradenton
    ------------------------------



  • 43.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 05-06-2020 15:49
    Edited by Lori Silver 05-06-2020 15:52
    Yes, I think so.

    ------------------------------
    Lori Silver
    ------------------------------



  • 44.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-24-2020 07:37
    Hi Gideon,
    Thanks for sharing this letter, your views concur with the opinion of most economists around the world. But, it's up to the policymakers to take the decision and in a timely manner. In Nigeria, there are estimations that hunger-deaths due to the economic lockdown will surpass the COVID-19 deaths. So, your submission is as useful to the US as well as so many countries affected by the pandemic. Well done.

    Michael Mba

    ------------------------------
    Michael Mba
    Principal Statistician
    Central Bank of Nigeria
    ------------------------------



  • 45.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-24-2020 20:45

    Stan,

    I do not see your data or your references on the statements you made.  My data is observation on what is actually happening in real time and things I am witnessing first hand on this pandemic.  Also, the original post is more important and relevant than political bias statements on every accusation against the President about any subject.  



    ------------------------------
    Lori Silver
    ------------------------------



  • 46.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-26-2020 01:01

    Many thanks to David Kaye and Stan Altan for their data-driven perspectives on this question. My intention is not to start of political discussion - indeed, it was not my understanding that this view is either novel or exceptional. For example, here is an essay in Scientific American on this subject, from November 2016.

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trump-comments-on-science-are-shockingly-ignorant/ 

    My intention instead has been the non-political objective of advocating for effective advocacy. Returning to the original post, I must  both applaud the letter while reiterating the importance of going through to most effective channels. The ASA's Science Policy and Advocacy office, led by Steve Pierson, is both an very effective in science advocacy and - as I may say from personal experience - an excellent source of help in the work of others. Their kind and highly skilled assistance has been invaluable in my own, very minor work as a human rights statistician and journalist in Data For Good. I commend Dr. Pierson and ASA Science Policy and Advocacy to those looking for the most effective ways and means in science advocacy, whether regarding the COVID-19 pandemic or other issues. 

    For we are all advocates, every one of us - not for ourselves but for each other, and for the work we share in using statistical science to help others, create stronger communities, and a better world. 

    David 



    ------------------------------
    David J Corliss, PhD
    Director, Peace-Work www.peace-work.org
    davidjcorliss@peace-work.org
    ------------------------------



  • 47.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-26-2020 09:27

    Thank the Trump Administration for a Preventable Disaster

    The Trump administration can point fingers, but here are compelling data that will reflect that pointing back on themselves. Both South Korea and the USA had their first Covid-19 case on January 20, 2020. South Korea immediately instituted massive testing and contact tracing, and later social distancing, and some travel restrictions. The USA's immediate response was more muted, simply banning most travel from China, for which Trump keeps patting himself on the back for.

    As of April 26, 2020, South Korea has had 4.72 cases per million residents, while the USA has had 165 cases per million residents. The chances of a random American to have died from Covid-19 works out to be 35 times that of a random South Korean. In just this past week, the Covid-19 death rate in the US was a stunning 42 per million, nearly nine times the total South Korea death rate, and representing 34% of the total US

    If the administration had acted responsibly in January even if just in part as South Korea did, at least half of these deaths could have been spared, or over 25,000.

    But letters to Trump are worthless, because he does not listen to his own advisors, and fires anyone who offers a dissenting view.   If he reads a letter from the statistical community, he is likely to take vindictive action. Heaven spare us from four more years of his anti-science positions (climate change, pollution control, hiring industry cronies to safety oversight agencies, and suggesting dangerous and unproven remedies for the pandemic).  And do not forget his executive order to stop processing grean card applications. This is a terrible blow to our profession, not only from getting top notch foreign scientists into the US, but it will be a disaster to exceptional holders of temporary visa holders (H1 and Student).

     



    ------------------------------
    Jon Shuster
    ------------------------------



  • 48.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-30-2020 19:40
    Thanks to David Corliss for sharing the article in Scientific American about our president's public comments about scientific matters.  In my opinion, this is important information for those involved in data analysis to promote the public good and advance scientific knowledge.  
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trump-comments-on-science-are-shockingly-ignorant/

    ------------------------------
    Brandy Sinco, BS, MA, MS
    Statistician Senior
    Michigan Medicine
    ------------------------------



  • 49.  RE: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy

    Posted 04-30-2020 21:44
    Interesting article! I commend the work done by David Corliss. I've read his news events in Amstat and he clearly does great work!.

    The 3rd or 4th sentence in the first paragraph of the news article states:

    Trump has, however, made statements about science over the years, many of them in the form of tweets. They betray his beliefs about scientific issues, so we are reprinting a selection of them here. We have not fact-checked them.

    Am I missing something?  I have no doubt that Trump has made tweets that were incorrect.  I suspect all politicians and humans for that matter have made incorrect statements.  Were some of his tweets interpreted by the media out of context?  Is this an article we should rely on given the not fact-checked disclaimer?  

    Dave Olsen PhD

    ------------------------------
    David Olsen
    Consultant
    StarPwr Analytics, LLC
    ------------------------------