1) That we keep our focus on the two major areas of impact of COVID-19: public health and economic stability and that our focus extends beyond the US particularly to those countries that are less blessed than are we in the US.
2) Given the fluid and evolving nature of our knowledge of COVID-19 and its impact, that our discussions would not be dogmatic and elitist.
3) As much as humanly possible that our discussions would not be motivated by biases and irrelevant agendas.
4) That we would not resort to ad hominem comments about posters or others.
5) That we would be united by our common humanity.
Original Message:
Sent: 05-05-2020 11:23
From: Robert Norton
Subject: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy
Hang tough, Lori. When I was an undergrad in the mid-1960s, professors in all disciplines taught their subjects giving no hint as to their politics. Slowly over the decades, what I was observing retreated to my confident belief that at least, surely, mathematics, statistics and the sciences, by their nature, would not succumb to the infiltration. Sadly, for quite a few years now, we have been beyond even that. Your response was apt. I encourage those posting on the ASA Connect Digest to avoid political digs and talking points.
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[Mick] [Norton]
[Professor Emeritus]
[College of Charleston][]
Original Message:
Sent: 05-03-2020 16:33
From: Lori Silver
Subject: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy
Stan,
Here we go again. I would like to agree to disagree and, frankly, I am the person being attacked to no end, personally. If you, somehow, think you were personally attacked I apologize because that is not my intention.
This analysis by The Union of Concerned Scientists tells me, with data analysis, how sixteen science-based federal government agencies felt in 2018. I could dig deeper to see what was going on in 2018 with the federal government agencies to feel this way but it is too off subject. I consider this data (we agree) but it doesn't dispute the fact the president is listening to science-based advice on COVID-19 from science-based professionals in 2020 to the point of shutting down our country.
Respectfully, and not meant to be personal, by your logic you are saying that a person, regardless of their actions today on a current event, is summed up by the person's perceived past statements whether true or not. Again, you are free to feel that way. I disagree.
My point about politics and science is not personal to you and I do think it is a problem for our profession as I previously stated. There should be no politics in science which was why I referenced the article in my last post. Political bias is here, to my great disappointment, which I find to be a threat to science overall.
I have learned a lesson though, do not speak up on negative statements towards the president made by other members in this science-based community because it isn't a popular opinion. This is the opposite from what I ask my staff to do. I ask them to disagree with each other and to speak up. For example, I ask them to poke holes in my logic, opinion or analysis because I actually believe it gives us a better data product. Sometimes a person has a point and I could choose to address it or not but my eyes were opened to their opinion.
Again I agree to disagree.
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Lori Silver
Original Message:
Sent: 05-03-2020 13:31
From: Stan Altan
Subject: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy
Lori
Following up your link, let me suggest this nonpartisan perspective that might be informative for you :
https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2018/08/science-under-trump-report.pdf
It's a little dated now published almost 2 years ago, but it starts out with the statement "A year and a half into the Trump administration, its record on science policy in several agencies and departments is abysmal. Evidence rolls in daily that this administration is undermining long-established processes for science to inform public policy (Carter et al. 2017)."
I am trying hard to provide data and you come back with personal attacks and slogans.
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Stan Altan
Original Message:
Sent: 05-02-2020 15:45
From: Lori Silver
Subject: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy
Stan,
I do not have any interest in going through all my arguments again. You clearly give more weight to your political leaning and on the remark about the president being anti-science. I still haven't seen factual evidence that is true. You are free to assume whatever you want. I prefer to stick with observation on the fact that the whole country was shut down by the President and his administration due to science-based advice. I heard Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx say, in their own words, the president listens to their advice. This observation proves the fact that the President is listening to science-based advice to shut down the country due to COVID-19. Maybe you can look at some of their interviews. I can go on and on to make my point, again, but the problem is you will never believe or even entertain the idea I am right or I have a point. That's what political bias does. It closes your mind to any other information that could be relevant (like observation).
If we want to promote data and science we need to keep our eyes open and be willing to read contradictory information that may not always measure up to your preconceived ideas.
Lastly, take a look on the internet, on what you can find about science with politics on both sides. If you can't see that science is being negatively impacted by politics it is a problem for our profession. I read from both left and right leanings. I view methodologies regardless of the outcome, I seek every point of view and eventually I form an opinion. I don't look at a list of Tweets and only look at left leaning information to form an opinion about a person or a situation. So, I will leave you with one possible right leaning opinion piece quote I think had a great point (which you can completely disregard because you are left leaning):
"As Carl Cannon, Washington bureau chief and executive editor of RealClearPolitics, recently wrote, political bias and social "wokeness" infect everything. From news, sports, weather and entertainment to the food we eat, everything is politicized - even, sadly but not surprisingly, science and medicine and even something as frightening and life-disrupting as the COVID-19 coronavirus, as we saw this past week when the Senate and then the House fought over the terms of a relief package for a nation in virtual lockdown."
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/489962-what-if-the-sky-is-falling-coronavirus-models-are-simply-wrong
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Lori Silver
Original Message:
Sent: 05-02-2020 13:48
From: Stan Altan
Subject: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy
Lori
Reading your responses leaves much to be desired.
Let me remind you of the original premise of the discussion, something that seems to have gotten sidelined by you and some others who have contributed to this thread.
David Corliss wrote referring to the original letter: "The content is scientific, well-thought out, and clearly expressed. That's a serious problem with a President incapable of understanding science and not interested in learning, is determined anti-science …".
In your first response, you countered with the claim "…the President's decisions have been based on science…". So that broad statement was your initial contribution to challenging David's premise. Subsequent letters from you and others diverged to more or less mount a political defense, never really addressing the premise.
I focused on just David's broad statement and presented you with my data supporting David's statement. My data was Trump's own words. Words do matter, especially coming from the President, but it seems that you do not regard someone's words as data. If that's the case, then it seems there's a double standard operating here. You want to accept the words that you like, but reject those that you don't like. Tweets for example you wrote should not be considered "data" but your argument is convenience based.
But more than that, we as a profession have an essential interest in promoting a data and science based decision making principle. If we see egregious violations of this among our leaders, I believe we have an institutional, as well as personal obligation to encourage otherwise. In connection with this, we can have dissenting opinions, and we should present our positions as clearly as possible, but facts are not to be confused with opinion or political bias.
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Stan Altan
Original Message:
Sent: 05-01-2020 16:28
From: Lori Silver
Subject: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy
David Corliss, with all due respect, asking me how I would handle Gideon's letter is argument deflection because it is different from what I brought up in the first place but it was a great try.
My problem was, simply, your political bias as a decision point and the snide way you referred to the President. As I stated in my first post, I usually let the little digs go but it is concerning that a community like ours would be so blatant on their political leaning which blurs the lines of factual evidence and political bias.
I never had a problem with your second post stating your conclusion other than your reference to the 2016 Scientific American article pointing to Tweets that were never fact checked so I let it go as I had been doing in the past. That being said, I'm not sure Tweets should be considered data since they are limited on word count and could be misunderstood or taken out of context. I also, wasn't appreciative of your thanks to David Kaye and Stan Altan for their "data-driven" perspectives since their perspectives weren't data-driven but that is what happens when you have political bias so I shouldn't be shocked.
I get it, I am not representing the popular point-of-view in this community but please don't assume I am the only one that feels this way. I never was a fan of group think. I do enjoy debate and I don't disrespect anyone's point-of-view, I just disagree. I think I am still allowed to disagree, or maybe not . . .
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Lori Silver
Original Message:
Sent: 05-01-2020 10:51
From: David Corliss
Subject: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy
In my earlier remarks, I suggested - based on previous evidence such at the 2016 Scientific American article - that
- An open letter addressed to the President is not the most effective channel for scientific advocacy
- Working with state-level government organizations is more effective
- Working with the excellent ASA Science Policy and Advocacy team is most effective
Some have been concerned that this is too political and defended the President. As my argument has always been the best practices for advocacy, please allow me to ask those who raising these concerns - for example, Lori Silver: Do you believe an open letter to the President is effective? If not, what does your experience in advocacy show works best? You have suggested what we shouldn't do. What do you think we should do to address the President?
Thank you!
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David J Corliss, PhD
Director, Peace-Work www.peace-work.org
davidjcorliss@peace-work.org
Original Message:
Sent: 04-24-2020 19:55
From: Stan Altan
Subject: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy
Lori
We're statisticians. We like to think we base our decisions on data. Here's my data regarding your statement that Trump's decisions are based on science :
1. Climate change is accepted by science, Trump is a climate denier, he blames it on the Chinese.
2. Trump attacked wind farms as harmful - there's no scientific evidence for this.
3. Trump said energy saving bulbs can cause cancer - but they emit less radiation than natural sunlight.
4. Trump argued that countries with Ebola should be banned because it would spread the virus in the US - there is no evidence that this policy would do anything.
More recently he has said vaccines are harmful, he denied the Covid19 virus threat for weeks longer than his scientific advisors recommended, he recommended chloroquin over the objections of his medical advisors, and last night he suggested people inject lysol to rid themselves of the virus. My data supports David's statement. Can we see your data?
Stan Altan
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Stan Altan
Original Message:
Sent: 04-23-2020 13:59
From: Lori Silver
Subject: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy
David,
I agree that this should be handled at a state level.
I usually just read on ASA Connect and have never posted but when I see blatant bias against the president when you said "That's a serious problem with a President incapable of understanding science and not interested in learning, is determined anti-science, and appears to frame this entire event through the lens of a re-election campaign." This seems like CNN talking points or even worse you're listening to Nancy Pelosi. Yes, he does talk about other information responding to reporters' questions and defends himself from his constant attacks so you can easily label that part as "re-election campaign" but the shutting down of our entire country is due to advise from both Dr. Birx, Dr. Fauci and other science based professionals (pro science). All this being said the President's decisions have been based on science so I am not sure how you can label that "anti-science". He has also pushed decisions to the States with science-based guidelines. I usually let the little digs to the President go but, to me, what you said was just wrong and, of course, this entire post is my personal opinion.
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Lori Silver
Original Message:
Sent: 04-22-2020 08:02
From: David Corliss
Subject: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy
Not commenting on the science, I have little experience in health care. Instead, I would like to address the framing and targeting of the letter. The content is scientific, well-thought out, and clearly expressed. That's a serious problem with a President incapable of understanding science and not interested in learning, is determined anti-science, and appears to frame this entire event through the lens of a re-election campaign.
This excellent letter might have much greater impact if addressed to and shared with health care leaders - as indeed you have begun by posting here. Circulating the letter to state-level health care leaders will be better received, resulting in greater effect. I hope the letter is more widely shared in the medical community, beyond biostatistics. I expect it is there that the letter will provide the greatest benefit.
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David J Corliss, PhD
Director, Peace-Work www.peace-work.org
davidjcorliss@peace-work.org
Original Message:
Sent: 04-13-2020 20:28
From: Gideon Bahn
Subject: A letter to Mr. President for COVID 19 and economy
Dear follow statisticians,
Here is my letter to Mr. President. Here is the link in change.org: http://chng.it/srwP9Lt9q5
Dear Mr. President,
I am a biostatistician working at Hines Edward Jr. VA Hospital that is proudly serving our Veterans who have served our great country. I am so grateful to you, supporting the VA to do the job with all the necessary means and resources especially in the midst of this crisis not only in US but also globally. If I may, I would like to offer an additional perspective in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic and our economy.
As you know well, COVID-19 is a different virus than the regular flu. Globally, it has been demonstrated that less than 5% of people who died of COVID-19 were less than 60 years old, and that less than 1% of people who died had no pre-existing conditions according to the website of the Worldodometers, which is very different from the statistics of seasonal flu and even of H1N1 in 1918. The COVID infected people with a normally-functioning immune system have mild or no symptoms, thus they may not choose to see a health care provider. This fact makes them to go all over the place without taking precautions and thus unwittingly spread it to others more widely than a seasonal flu. This fact is the main reason why this has become pandemic globally, and your administration is doing the best to stop spreading by stopping the whole country, except for essential services. Unfortunately, we are on the verge, if not already in the midst of an economic depression once again. The longer we stay in this situation, the more dire the economic and social consequences. Without a clearer understanding of the exact statistics surrounding this pandemic, the impact of economic depression has been and will be felt in many ways, including in the lives of our young and vibrant work force in this great country and in the world. We may be over-reacting according to Dr. Ioannidis' statistics (STATNEWS, 3/17/2020).
Therefore, from the perspective of my statistical background and expertise, I am approaching this pandemic differently and would like to offer a proposal. I propose a targeted care. Since this does not severely impact healthy individuals without underlying illness/disease as described above, we need to focus on the target high-risk population-people with an underlying illness/disease even if they may be young. We should be providing different guidelines for two different populations; a vulnerable population with an underlying illness/disease and a normal healthy population.
First, proactive care for the vulnerable population with underlying illness/disease. There are two groups; one who stays in a facility, such as a nursing home or a long-term care facility, and another in a personal home with and without a caregiver. We should proactively test those who are in such facilities as soon as possible and keep all the workers in the facilities free from COVID19 by any means, monitoring daily and providing any necessary resources. For those who are sick with or without caregiver, they may have a choice to come to be tested or call to receive the test kit, including the caregiver's. If positive, the patient should be admitted to the closest hospital or facility and the caregiver should be tested and treated according to the doctor's judgment (may need guidelines). If not sick, I would let the caregiver go and live freely except meeting those who have underlying sickness (need guidelines) but may come in as needed. If the caregiver is found positive and needs to be quarantined, do it at home but no one should even live/meet one's own family members with an underlying sickness for 14 days, unless other family member(s) is healthy and wants to be quarantined together.
Secondly, as needed care for general population: For the general population, assuming they are healthy without an underlying illness/disease (which could include a person with diabetes or hypertension whose conditions are well-controlled and are otherwise healthy and working), they should be able to return to work, but maintaining social distancing from those who are 60 and older with underlying clinical risk factors (need guidelines). They should only report to the hospital/testing center for testing when they feel sick or have symptoms. For those who are tested positive, they may be categorized into three groups; severe sickness, mild symptoms and no illness. The first severely sick group should be hospitalized right away, and the people who are involved in caring such a person should be tested and treated accordingly. The second mild group should be decided by the health care professional, either to be hospitalized or quarantined, and the caregiver should be dealt in the same way if any. A person with no symptoms may be quarantined at home for 14 days but return for assessment or treatment if he or she feels sick with high temperature (need guidelines).
In this way, we can conserve our resources and use it to provide and protect the right population who are in need, thus saving more lives and allowing more people to return to work sooner. Again if only 5% of those who are tested positive are categorized as severe, while 95% are mild or no symptoms, are we wisely spending our material and human resources accordingly?
Due to spreading all our health care resources thinly for all cases of COVID-19, we may be neglecting those in need of emergency care due to other sicknesses. They may have to find an emergency room further from their location, or cannot find a specialist for their illness, or even a hospital bed or a surgery room to operate as necessary. Even though we cannot find the statistics on this kind of case now, I believe this is not a small number either.
Concerning economy, here is my proposal. If we continue with the current plan, so far 16.8 million people filed unemployment insurance, and we estimate 20 million jobs will be lost (Business Insider). We need to fear the fear of now, neglecting the future disaster. Therefore, we must open them up as soon as possible, thus saving businesses and jobs as much as we can. This will be reducing the duration of the economic depression, thus benefiting the whole country, not only protecting the vulnerable population but also general population that are all impacted by the overall economic depression, especially our young and vibrant workforce in the long run.
As a citizen of USA, I love this country and pray for you, Mr. President, and desire that our country serve as an exemplary shepherd nation, that also cares for the plight of others in our global economy. This is the most crucial time for our nation to rise again to our match our legacy of greatness by doing what is right and necessary even though the risks seem high and uncertain. But by walking forward with wisdom, our country may continue to shine our light brightly as the city on a hill. God bless America and help you!
With humble and earnest prayer,
Gideon Bahn
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Gideon Bahn
Lead Biostatistician at Hines VA Hospital
Visiting Professor at Loyola University Chicago
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