Epidemiological models do not provide death forecasts. Statistical models using inverse Mills ratio, generalized linear models (GLM) with Poisson link for death count data plus autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models can provide improved death forecasts for individual states.
See details at http://ssrn.com/abstract=3637682 and http://ssrn.com/abstract=3649680
Our 95% confidence interval is [optimistic 4719 to pessimistic 8026] deaths, with a point-estimate forecast for US deaths at 6529. Request a copy of the paper having state-by-state Covid-19 death forecasts by emailing vinod@fordham.edu
Authorities need Bias-free Forecast-driven Guidelines for Opening Pandemic-ravaged Economies. A forward-looking viewpoint is badly needed.
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Hrishikesh Vinod
Fordham University
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