ASA Connect

In a series of articles in the journal Foresight, Steve Morlidge reported that 30-50% of real life business forecasts – the forecasts managers are using to run their organizations – are less accurate than a naïve forecast. This is astounding! And it raises the question: Why are real-life business forecasts so frequently so very wrong, and is there anything we can do about it?

This presentation reviews the main reasons why forecasts go wrong, and some of the worst practices that contribute to what Morlidge has called "avoidable error." It shows how the method of Forecast Value Added analysis – now being employed at dozens of companies worldwide – can identify the waste and inefficiency in a forecasting process and result in more accurate forecasts.

Rather than focus on ever more elaborate data and modeling efforts, a more direct route to forecasting improvement is to instead focus on the organizational practices that just make a forecast worse. This presentation provides material you will find useful when dealing with organizational forecasting processes, and with organizational management.

In a series of articles in the journal Foresight, Steve Morlidge reported that 30-50% of real life business forecasts – the forecasts managers are using to run their organizations – are less accurate than a naïve forecast. This is astounding! And it raises the question: Why are real-life business forecasts so frequently so very wrong, and is there anything we can do about it?

This presentation reviews the main reasons why forecasts go wrong, and some of the worst practices that contribute to what Morlidge has called "avoidable error." It shows how the method of Forecast Value Added analysis – now being employed at dozens of companies worldwide – can identify the waste and inefficiency in a forecasting process and result in more accurate forecasts.

Rather than focus on ever more elaborate data and modeling efforts, a more direct route to forecasting improvement is to instead focus on the organizational practices that just make a forecast worse. This presentation provides material you will find useful when dealing with organizational forecasting processes, and with organizational management.

September 19 is Yom Kippur this year. Many of our Jewish members who might wish to participate will be otherwise occupied that day.

Will a recording be available online for later viewing?

In a series of articles in the journal Foresight, Steve Morlidge reported that 30-50% of real life business forecasts – the forecasts managers are using to run their organizations – are less accurate than a naïve forecast. This is astounding! And it raises the question: Why are real-life business forecasts so frequently so very wrong, and is there anything we can do about it?

This presentation reviews the main reasons why forecasts go wrong, and some of the worst practices that contribute to what Morlidge has called "avoidable error." It shows how the method of Forecast Value Added analysis – now being employed at dozens of companies worldwide – can identify the waste and inefficiency in a forecasting process and result in more accurate forecasts.

Rather than focus on ever more elaborate data and modeling efforts, a more direct route to forecasting improvement is to instead focus on the organizational practices that just make a forecast worse. This presentation provides material you will find useful when dealing with organizational forecasting processes, and with organizational management.