ASA Connect

I have posted this message to the COVID-19 data and research discussion group:
"CDC/NVSS has responded to calls for data on excess deaths during the COVID-19 crisis by providing visualizations of excess data nationally and by state: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm . These graphic presentations of the time series of deaths from all causes by week show, for example, the rapid increase in excess deaths in the state of Mississippi that has led the governor to restore social isolation restrictions. Kudos to the CDC/NVSS staff who have accelerated releases of these data. The CDC/NVSS has also released data by state for 2019 and though 4/2020."

Apologies for multiple posting. I have done so in response to claims that the rate of excess deaths have fallen during the last week or two. The CDC/NVSS visualizations and data reflect lags in reporting deaths that make the recent weeks numbers appear to have decreased. The data series clearly show the expected numbers of cases increasing for the same week as data become more complete. The tendency of some commentators to seize on any reports favorable to their pet causes should be a concern for ASA members.

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Sigurd Hermansen
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Dear Sigurd, 

Thanks for having shared this resource, very interesting. However, you intend to raise awareness that the number of excess deaths has allegedly not fallen in the last week or two. However, the link provided does not show data beyond 4/25, so there is no information in this chart on the last week or two altogether. 

Best regards

------------------------------
Sven Serneels
Director, Data Analytics
Aspen Technology
------------------------------

Original Message:
Sent: 05-05-2020 18:03
From: Sigurd Hermansen
Subject: excess deaths during COVID-19 pandemic

I have posted this message to the COVID-19 data and research discussion group:
"CDC/NVSS has responded to calls for data on excess deaths during the COVID-19 crisis by providing visualizations of excess data nationally and by state: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm . These graphic presentations of the time series of deaths from all causes by week show, for example, the rapid increase in excess deaths in the state of Mississippi that has led the governor to restore social isolation restrictions. Kudos to the CDC/NVSS staff who have accelerated releases of these data. The CDC/NVSS has also released data by state for 2019 and though 4/2020."

Apologies for multiple posting. I have done so in response to claims that the rate of excess deaths have fallen during the last week or two. The CDC/NVSS visualizations and data reflect lags in reporting deaths that make the recent weeks numbers appear to have decreased. The data series clearly show the expected numbers of cases increasing for the same week as data become more complete. The tendency of some commentators to seize on any reports favorable to their pet causes should be a concern for ASA members.

------------------------------
Sigurd Hermansen
------------------------------

Thanks, Sven, for noticing the lag in all-cause mortality data collection. See Table 1 on the web page at
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/
for partially complete numbers thru 5/2/2020. The pace of data collection has apparently slowed down during the lat week. The "Percent of Expected Deaths" (average of same weeks during the past three years) represents both the lag in reporting and one take on excess deaths once data collection becomes more complete. The counts by week thru 5/2/2020 appear to have a lag of around a month. That length of lag shows a major improvement in timing. The official counts end in 2018, and the NDI has received updates up to nineteen years after the end of a calendar year.




------------------------------
Sigurd Hermansen
------------------------------

Original Message:
Sent: 05-05-2020 20:19
From: Sven Serneels
Subject: excess deaths during COVID-19 pandemic

Dear Sigurd,

Thanks for having shared this resource, very interesting. However, you intend to raise awareness that the number of excess deaths has allegedly not fallen in the last week or two. However, the link provided does not show data beyond 4/25, so there is no information in this chart on the last week or two altogether.

Best regards

------------------------------
Sven Serneels
Director, Data Analytics
Aspen Technology

Original Message:
Sent: 05-05-2020 18:03
From: Sigurd Hermansen
Subject: excess deaths during COVID-19 pandemic

I have posted this message to the COVID-19 data and research discussion group:
"CDC/NVSS has responded to calls for data on excess deaths during the COVID-19 crisis by providing visualizations of excess data nationally and by state: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm . These graphic presentations of the time series of deaths from all causes by week show, for example, the rapid increase in excess deaths in the state of Mississippi that has led the governor to restore social isolation restrictions. Kudos to the CDC/NVSS staff who have accelerated releases of these data. The CDC/NVSS has also released data by state for 2019 and though 4/2020."

Apologies for multiple posting. I have done so in response to claims that the rate of excess deaths have fallen during the last week or two. The CDC/NVSS visualizations and data reflect lags in reporting deaths that make the recent weeks numbers appear to have decreased. The data series clearly show the expected numbers of cases increasing for the same week as data become more complete. The tendency of some commentators to seize on any reports favorable to their pet causes should be a concern for ASA members.

------------------------------
Sigurd Hermansen
------------------------------

Nice visualizations.  Of course I looked at my own state of Connecticut but the data appear to be wrong.   NY Times reports 2600+ confirmed and probable COVID deaths in Connecticut, all since March 1, but this CDC graph shows no excess mortality.  Hmmm.  

------------------------------
Dan Meyer
Head of Statistics - Rare Disease
Pfizer, Inc.
------------------------------

Original Message:
Sent: 05-05-2020 20:19
From: Sven Serneels
Subject: excess deaths during COVID-19 pandemic

Dear Sigurd,

Thanks for having shared this resource, very interesting. However, you intend to raise awareness that the number of excess deaths has allegedly not fallen in the last week or two. However, the link provided does not show data beyond 4/25, so there is no information in this chart on the last week or two altogether.

Best regards

------------------------------
Sven Serneels
Director, Data Analytics
Aspen Technology

Original Message:
Sent: 05-05-2020 18:03
From: Sigurd Hermansen
Subject: excess deaths during COVID-19 pandemic

I have posted this message to the COVID-19 data and research discussion group:
"CDC/NVSS has responded to calls for data on excess deaths during the COVID-19 crisis by providing visualizations of excess data nationally and by state: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm . These graphic presentations of the time series of deaths from all causes by week show, for example, the rapid increase in excess deaths in the state of Mississippi that has led the governor to restore social isolation restrictions. Kudos to the CDC/NVSS staff who have accelerated releases of these data. The CDC/NVSS has also released data by state for 2019 and though 4/2020."

Apologies for multiple posting. I have done so in response to claims that the rate of excess deaths have fallen during the last week or two. The CDC/NVSS visualizations and data reflect lags in reporting deaths that make the recent weeks numbers appear to have decreased. The data series clearly show the expected numbers of cases increasing for the same week as data become more complete. The tendency of some commentators to seize on any reports favorable to their pet causes should be a concern for ASA members.

------------------------------
Sigurd Hermansen
------------------------------

Dan:
I hadn't looked at the Connecticut excess deaths data. The graph bars have dates only thru February. The fact that the graph shows excess deaths between 1/11 and 2/29. I suspect that the week ending variable has shifted the timeline and overwritten January and February weekly data. These data are being called "provisional" for a reason. I understand the difficulties in collecting and presenting data quickly.

------------------------------
Sigurd Hermansen
------------------------------

Original Message:
Sent: 05-06-2020 13:56
From: R. Meyer
Subject: excess deaths during COVID-19 pandemic

Nice visualizations.  Of course I looked at my own state of Connecticut but the data appear to be wrong.   NY Times reports 2600+ confirmed and probable COVID deaths in Connecticut, all since March 1, but this CDC graph shows no excess mortality.  Hmmm.  

------------------------------
Dan Meyer
Head of Statistics - Rare Disease
Pfizer, Inc.

Original Message:
Sent: 05-05-2020 20:19
From: Sven Serneels
Subject: excess deaths during COVID-19 pandemic

Dear Sigurd,

Thanks for having shared this resource, very interesting. However, you intend to raise awareness that the number of excess deaths has allegedly not fallen in the last week or two. However, the link provided does not show data beyond 4/25, so there is no information in this chart on the last week or two altogether.

Best regards

------------------------------
Sven Serneels
Director, Data Analytics
Aspen Technology

Original Message:
Sent: 05-05-2020 18:03
From: Sigurd Hermansen
Subject: excess deaths during COVID-19 pandemic

I have posted this message to the COVID-19 data and research discussion group:
"CDC/NVSS has responded to calls for data on excess deaths during the COVID-19 crisis by providing visualizations of excess data nationally and by state: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm . These graphic presentations of the time series of deaths from all causes by week show, for example, the rapid increase in excess deaths in the state of Mississippi that has led the governor to restore social isolation restrictions. Kudos to the CDC/NVSS staff who have accelerated releases of these data. The CDC/NVSS has also released data by state for 2019 and though 4/2020."

Apologies for multiple posting. I have done so in response to claims that the rate of excess deaths have fallen during the last week or two. The CDC/NVSS visualizations and data reflect lags in reporting deaths that make the recent weeks numbers appear to have decreased. The data series clearly show the expected numbers of cases increasing for the same week as data become more complete. The tendency of some commentators to seize on any reports favorable to their pet causes should be a concern for ASA members.

------------------------------
Sigurd Hermansen
------------------------------