Dear Friends,
We are leading an effort with 1004 World Health Organization collaborating centers to provide the best possible coronavirus teaching methods for students across the world. We have built a web site which is a collection of coronavirus PowerPoint, and Youtube lectures that anyone can use for free.
http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/COVIDpandemic.htm
A group of use experts in Epidemiology, statistics and public health have been combing through lectures. It is amazing that among the dancing cats and piano playing dogs there is a rich collection of coronavirus lectures.
I am writing to you to see if you have slides or lecture on basic statistical approaches as to how to analyze an epidemic, in particular a coronavirus epidemic. From an Epidemiologic perspective, the approaches used in the media are inappropriate. For example using cumulative incidence of new cases makes little sense in tracking the epidemic. This metric is comprised of Old (prevalent) and new (incident) cases. Ninety five percent of the cases recover. Here is the typical graph of cumulative incidence
Here is the graph of the incident cases per day
Quite a different picture appears. I had measles when I was 5. Am i still a prevalent case?
Also I know of only two epidemiologic studies that discuss incidence rates rather than incidence counts.
I you know of a short lecture on "How to Analyze an Epidemic". If you do not would you like to collaborate with a Russian, a Namibian, and Egyptian and many WHO Collaborating Centers to build one?
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Ronald LaPorte, Ph.D.
Professor Emeritus Epidemiology
Former director of WHO CC
University of Pittsburgh
ronaldlaporte@gmail.com724 934 9023
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