More than 450 high school and college students used statistical data and methods to predict the outcomes of the 2016 presidential election. 97 percent of participants predicted that Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 presidential election.The median of contest participant projections show that Clinton will win 332 electoral votes to Trump’s 204, and 49.3 percent of the popular vote to Trump’s 43.3 percent. Key projections (based on the collection of student entries) include:
- Clinton will win 26 states (and the District of Columbia) to Trump’s 24 states.
- Among the battleground states, Trump will win Arizona, Iowa and Ohio and Clinton will win Florida, Nevada and North Carolina.
- 132 million voters will cast ballots in the 2016 election, the largest voter turnout in absolute numbers in United States history.
Check out the breakdown here, and stay tuned as ASA will be announcing the winner(s) of Prediction 2016 after Election Day.
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Jill Talley
American Statistical Association
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