If we want to talk about producing something, in most cases, you can't decide at say 5:00am, you are going to start manufacturing something and by 8:00am, your at full production.
A friend of mine makes little knurled caps for valve stems and knurled caps for large items. It takes them 12 hr to switch between the 2 lines of products. And these parts are made by professionals that have been doing this for decades.
If you have parts that need to be stamped, that will be a process to change things in itself.
If you need to make blow molded parts, that will take time to make those and get them working well. (There is a reason why a lot of automobiles use the same parts on different lines of vehicles. )
It would be possible to make the devices suggested. It just wouldn't happen for a few weeks to months. You also have to consider where will they get the parts? Where will they get the skilled workers, etc.
If you have really great CNC machinery and awesome 3-d printers, that can save some time. But, it still takes time to design, test and certify the designs. You then have an issue about the quality of the final product.
Suppose that all of that stuff is rushed and factories are ready to make these products in 2 months. What are the chances that there will still be a huge demand for the products?
When you hear that Ford rolls an F-150 of it's production lines every 3 minutes sounds impressive. But, every summer, the factory shuts down to be "retooled" for the newest version of the vehicle, which will have minimal changes made to it. Then, because of JIT delivery, the parts manufacturers need to have a supply ready to ship, etc. Not to mention the fact that Ford is currently working on designs for 2024-25 F-150s right now.
Because of all of those issues, I'd think it would be difficult to find any major or mid-sized manufacturer willing to take on the challenge of producing these devices. Considering how New York City needs 30,000 ventilators right now, that doesn't mean they will need 30,000 in 2-3 months from now.
If the gov't came out and said they want 1,000,000 new devices and they will pay for all of them, whether needed or not, that might be a good enough stimulus to ramp up production and to design new ventilators. But, where will you get the talent right now? What companies are in production right now and can start making the parts to a high enough quality and so on?
If you want to get things done as quickly as possible, you might need to give the manufacturers immunity from prosecution and remove legal rights to sue those companies for faulty equipment manufacturing, etc. In such a case, I can go to Home Depot get an air compressor and some pneumatic tools and actuators.All I need to know is how much pressure should I set the regulators for.
I don't mean to sound flippant or mean. I appreciate the gravity of the situation. I understand what you are trying to do and thank you for it. It's just when it comes to producing things at a mass scale, it takes time and a lot of up front cost. Most likely, by the time the production line is ready, the need will be diminished. And the company that spent all that money to build out their capacity will need to scrap everything.
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Andrew Ekstrom
Statistician, Chemist, HPC Abuser;-)
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Original Message:
Sent: 03-26-2020 09:58
From: David Stokar
Subject: 2 ways to increase ventilator supply
I was told by a doctor that those suggestions are feasible - but of course only in dire circumstances (which this may be).
Anyways, I leave that question to another forum (of medical professionals).
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David Stokar
[Principal Statistician]
Original Message:
Sent: 03-25-2020 13:45
From: Andrew Ekstrom
Subject: 2 ways to increase ventilator supply
I'm guessing neither doctor thought things through.
If it was decided that things will be made today, it will take quite a while before anything even starts to get made. I would suspect it wold be months before the first ventilators get made. Without proper QC testing, can we say how long and how well each ventilator will work? BTW, if the issue is getting oxygen to peoples lungs, why not use oxygen concentration/generators like those used by people with Emphysema/etc? How about CPAP machines? There should be a ready made supply of these devices at many local home health care stores.
If you pull the ventilators out of operating rooms, that's what, 4-6 ventilators per hospital. Then what happens when there is an emergency? It's simply not worth the risk. It might be a major legal issue too. Even if you remove 1 ventilator per hospital, they might not have enough useable ORs to stay open. Plus, will one ventilator really help?
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Andrew Ekstrom
Statistician, Chemist, HPC Abuser;-)
Original Message:
Sent: 03-24-2020 12:39
From: David Stokar
Subject: 2 ways to increase ventilator supply
I'm curious to hear your responses to these suggestions to increase the ventilator supply.
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David Stokar
[Principal Statistician]
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