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The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

  • 1.  The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-09-2018 16:12
    Edited by Jeremy Wu 04-22-2018 16:53
    The Census Bureau announced the planned questions for the 2020 Census to Congress on March 29, 2018, two days before it was required by law. A major controversy erupted when the question of citizenship was included in the announcement. The Commerce Secretary provided an 8-page written justification for the inclusion of the question.

    Fact checks and opinions were swift about the planned change. State governments have already filed lawsuits within hours of the announcement. The American Statistical Association issued a statement expressing its profound disappointment about the Commerce Secretary's decision. Community organizations are also weighing legal and other appropriate response.

    What is it all about?

    A comprehensive article offers a description of the historical context, an overview of the standard principles and practices for conducting the decennial census, a summary assessment of the Commerce Secretary's justification and the opposing views, and a personal view of how the controversy may be resolved.

    UPDATES:

    1. The House Oversight and Government Reform Committee will hold a hearing on the 2020 Census on May 8, 2018.

    2. Thanks to Dean Resnick, there is a citizenship status field in the Social Security administrative files. The decennial census does not collect social security number so matching with Social Security administrative records is not exact or definitive. If anyone has research and empirical studies showing the matching rates, especially by various demographic groups, please share. (4/13/2018)

    3. As promising as administrative records may be for future statistical systems, Science Magazine reports on the current state and limitations that would result in disruptions to the 2020 Census by the last-minute switch of the citizenship question. (4/14/2018)

    4. House Commerce, Justice, Science Subcommittee held a hearing on the Census Bureau FY2019 Budget.  (4/18/2018)

    ------------------------------
    Jeremy Wu
    McLean, VA
    ------------------------------


  • 2.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-10-2018 15:25

    I must confess that I am not an expert in this area, but I see strong arguments on both sides.  As a Statistician, I fully support the argument that the impact should be thoroughly studied before making the change.  However, the other arguments we as the ASA are making (in what I have read and there may be more), do not appear to be backed by data.  I would expect our letter to state that 'we have data that support', instead of 'we believe'.  I agree that the citizenship question would lead to further under-representation of certain sub-populations, but what is the actual impact and does that outweigh the possible benefits of having the question (I'm not saying it does, but I would like to see the data).

     

    I would love to see a late breaking session on this topic (if there were not one already) at JSM.  There should be a pro team and a con team with data and impact arguments on both sides. 

     

    Philip R. Scinto

    "It's Time to Use the Queen"

     





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  • 3.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-10-2018 16:18
    I love the idea of having a session at JSM on this topic with pros and cons

    ------------------------------
    William O'Hare
    President
    O'Hare Data and Demographic Services LLC
    ------------------------------



  • 4.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-11-2018 00:46
    Thank you for posting this item.






  • 5.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-12-2018 13:30
    I think that this is more of a political issue than a statistical issue, As statisticians, we should be concerned of the correct sampling population: Is the goal to count citizens or residents? The ASA document notes: "Given the innumerable and powerful ways census data help improve societal and economic conditions, great care should be exercised to avoid any situation that may further increase the risk of an undercount.". The undercount is defined by what we are counting.

    Secretary Ross seems to question that 30% of the respondents incorrectly check "citizen", which is mentioned in the ASA document, and indicates that he recognizes this potential problem and  wishes to control it, including comparison to other validated databases. He also notes his interest in developing "statistical models to provide more complete and accurate data" (from his document). Our concern should be development of such models, estimation of proportion of non-citizens who responded  "citizen", and impact of the non-response by both citizens and non-citizens, with the latter two perhaps incorporated in the model.

    David

    --
    David R. Bristol, PhD
    President, Statistical Consulting Services, Inc.
    1-336-293-7771





  • 6.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-12-2018 14:01
    I think the addition of the citizenship question to the 2020 Census is as much f a statistical issue as a political issue.  If you define the costs and quality of data from the 2020 Census as a statistical issue.

    If you have read the material from the Census Bureau on how many respondent are now ( since the election of Donald Trump)  resisting responding to the Census surveys and tests, or talked to leaders of Hispanic or Arab groups, I don' t think there is any doubt the addition of the citizenship question will lower item and person nonresponse rates in the 2020 Census.  And there a rich stream of studies from the Census Bureau showing that; 1) self-responses are more accurate than enumerator collected data or imputation,and 2) it is much more costly to send an enumerator out to collect data than to have respondents self-report.  The addition of the citizenship question will make the 2020 Census more costly and less accurate.

    I also think there is a double standard regarding evidence in the Secretaries decision to add the citizenship question.  No one has asked for proof or evidence that adding the citizenship question will enhance the effectiveness of the Voting Rights Act(VRA)  In fact, none of the groups protected by the VRA have asked for this question to be added to the 2020 census and at least a few people who were formerly in charge of enforcing the VRA have said the question is not needed.

    As a demographer I am normally in favor of collecting more data,  But is seems to me like this decision is not good for taxpayers or data scientists. 

    It seems like this is kind of like asking General Eisenhower how many men were going to die on D-Day.  and when he couldn't give a precise answer, concluding that no solders were going to die. 





    ------------------------------
    William O'Hare
    President
    O'Hare Data and Demographic Services LLC
    ------------------------------



  • 7.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-13-2018 12:47
    To  William O'Hare.  If the standard is non-response or false data, then we shouldn't ask income information or count the homeless or those on ships, etc. Our profession has means of dealing with this issue. The fact that 'none of the groups protected by the VRA has asked for this question' seems to be irrelevant. What about others? Also, The VRA is but one of many policy issues this question could shed light on.

    To: David Bristol. I think you are exactly correct. Our job is to find models and means to accurately estimate whatever is asked in the census (or ACS). We should not (and the ASA should not again) be involved in political issues.

    To: Jay Beder. By presuming this question interferes like no other, you both beg the question (how do you know?) and ignore 6 plus censuses where this question was not an issue. Likewise, you assume a priori there is a non response problem (with no evidence and loads of evidence to the contrary), but also ignore the fact that it is our job to deal with non-response issues, not throw up our hands. My point about the ACS is that it is not a large enough sample to provide needed crosstabs.. Finally, I agree 100% that this issue is political: the fact that this question was removed in 2010 is a completely political decision.

    To: Stefan Sharkansky. Your comments are so well stated, so rational, so spot on, they bear repeating (if I may quote you and add emphasis):

    "In general, this is a political issue and not a statistical issue. It's hard for me to understand why it's at all objectionable to count citizens to begin with. Whatever one's views about immigration policy, a willing ignorance of the facts seems inimical to a finding a politically satisfactory policy solution

    And it seems completely inappropriate to me for the ASA leadership to apply our organization's name to their personal political agendas. How insulting to the members that our collective name be borrowed to express opinions without regard to the diversity of views among us.

    The ASA as an organization should stick to statistical matters, and leave unrelated political opinions to the members to figure out for ourselves
    ."


    I have objected many times to the ASA taking sides in a political issue in the name of its members. Your last sentence is one I have raised multiple times with the ASA board, Science officer, Executive Director, etc. The ASA should be concerned with proper practice and methodology, and advancing the practice of statistics, and should heed your extremely well stated warning about a "willing ignorance of facts". Bravo !







  • 8.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-12-2018 09:35
    I am no expert in the census, but several facts jump out at me in this debate:

    1. The census has come a long way from it's originally proscribed purpose of 'enumeration' in the US Constitution. When the census includes questions about average commute or number of indoor bathrooms, it is obvious that the purpose has evolved to  gather data for policy decisions. The argument that citizenship status is not needed for 'enumeration' is a red herring.

    2. The argument that a citizenship question would hurt response rates seems rather specious: one could argue against surveying the homeless for the same reason. In addition, statisticians face non-response issues all the time in the census and elsewhere and have methods to deal with these issues.

    3. The argument that this question needs to be better vetted makes little sense inasmuch as the question has been in the census in 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000, not to mention in the ACS survey since 2005. I therefore do not understand the ASA's concern over vetting. Moreover as another has noted, the ASA statement contains we 'believe' not backed by data. The ASA also postulates a poorly defined null hypotheses ("nobody has proven this question will not hurt the response rate"). How about the null that "the response rate hasn't been hurt" and test this using the 5 decennial censuses we have?

    4. Finally, the argument that the ACS supplants or replaces the decennial census is misleading. Not only is the sample size much, much less, the ACS data is accumulated over several years to improve accuracy. No crosstabs are available, including any crosstabs comparing citizenship to any other of the myriad of census variables. 

    Again, I am no expert. It seems to me though that point number 4 is really the crux of the issue. Those against collecting this data I believe really want to avoid or coverup some discomforting crosstabs (country of origin v. citizenship status; income v. citizenship status; education attained v. citizenship status, age v. citizenship status, etc.) and are using other issues as smokescreens. Am I wrong?

    ------------------------------
    Terry Meyer
    ------------------------------



  • 9.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-12-2018 11:07
    Actually, the census does not include questions about travel to work etc any more. You are confusing it with the American community survey.

    On another point: Just because something was good or bad as a question in 1950 or 1970 does not mean that it is still good or bad today. Effective survey methods change with culture.

    ------------------------------
    S. Stokes
    Southern Methodist University
    ------------------------------



  • 10.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-12-2018 14:39
    I'd like to add a few points in response to Terry Meyer's comments.

    1. While the census has added questions not directly required for simple enumeration, this particular question has the potential to interfere with data collection in a way that no other question might.
    2. It is true that we don't know the effect of the citizenship question on non-response, but it would be irresponsible to ignore the real risk of significant non-response, especially in the current political environment.
    3. It is possible to use the ACS to estimate the number of citizens. It's not obvious why we need an actual enumeration of citizens.  First rule:  Do no harm.
    4. It is hard to miss the political impetus driving this decision. The census has profound effects on society in its use for apportionment and for funding of programs.  The likely effect of nonresponse will be to hurt states and people who lean Democratic.

    I haven't heard anyone argue that the ACS "supplants or replaces" the decennial census.  It does supplement the census.  I'm not sure of the point of that comment.



    ------------------------------
    Jay Beder
    Professor
    University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
    ------------------------------



  • 11.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-12-2018 16:23
    I think it would be worthwhile to follow Mae West's wise advice - "If it is worth doing, it is worth doing slowly."
    How do we know how to build a model that can estimate the nonresponse rates that are due to the inclusion of any particular question? One way is to include the 'citizenship' question in a modest but representative sample in the 2020 census and compare the results with a control group in the same census that doesn't ask that question. That would allow us to estimate the causal effect of that question on any number of subgroups and other dependent variables. Then use that information to build a model that can make adjustments in the 2030 census. Or, if the results indicate that such a question adds too much noise, find another way to estimate that information.

    ------------------------------
    Howard Wainer
    Distinguished Research Scientist
    ------------------------------



  • 12.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-13-2018 15:32
    i'm not an expert, but my memory of many past disputes about the census is that congress has been resistant to application of estimating techniques for the undercount in general.  since the primary purpose of the census is apportionment for representation in congress (AND originally it certainly was not restricted to citizens, especially those who were counted as 3/5), getting a good count is far more important than many of the other questions.  i think congress and all others are much more tolerant of estimation and imputation for other variables (albeit with the associated errors/misclassifications that go with them).  i agree that it would be of great interest to test 2 different forms, but i suspect this doesn't work bureaucratically or legally.


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  • 13.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-16-2018 06:28
    Dear All:

    Adding the citizenship question on the actual Census (the enumeration of everyone in the United States) was contemplated by Congress (actually the Senate) in 2010, and eventually was blocked.  The Constitutional background is discussed here:
    The Cornerstone of Our Democracy: The Census Clause and the Constitutional Obligation to Count All Persons | Constitutional Accountability Center
    Constitutional Accountability Center remove preview
    The Cornerstone of Our Democracy: The Census Clause and the Constitutional Obligation to Count All Persons | Constitutional Accountability Center
    The Census is a cornerstone of our democracy. The federal government has a constitutional obligation to count all persons, both citizens and non-citizens alike, in the decennial census. The Trump administration, however, is threatening to undermine the fairness and accuracy of the 2020 census by including a citizenship question.
    View this on Constitutional Accountability Center >
     
    The BBC has a very good feature on this:  Is the US Census Under Threat?, The Thought Show - BBC World Service
    BBC remove preview
    Is the US Census Under Threat?, The Thought Show - BBC World Service
    Is the US census under threat? Plus, conspiracy theories on social media, and veganism
    View this on BBC >
     
    As to adjustment, that is not allowed, however imputation is allowed, and if you carefully read the Ross memo/letter it is plain that they want to also go after how that imputation is done.

    This is a political question, but Statistics (which root is State) is also political at base.

    Andy

    ------------------------------
    Andrew Beveridge
    Professor of Sociology
    Queens and Grad Center CUNY
    CEO of Social Explorer and Redistricting Consultant
    ------------------------------



  • 14.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-17-2018 20:59
    The argument to preclude the citizenship question because the census is about enumeration is a complete red herring and we all know it. If the ONLY purpose of the census is counting people, why do we ask for age? Gender? Number in the household? Race? Hispanic origin? Rent/own? If own, mortgage or not? And why for 100 years did we ask one's citizenship (along with a hundred other questions about bathrooms or commute time or income ..... )? Occam's razor. The most obvious explanation is that many do not WANT to know the answer.





  • 15.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-18-2018 06:51
    The Census never asked 100 questions.  Someone published a link to the actual question list.  The Census is now done by mail or computer and  with enumerators being the last recourse.   The Voting Rights Act has been enforced without the Citizenship question but by using the Census Sample (the Long Form) and its successor the ACS.

    The ACS has about 50 questions.  All the questions are related to the needs of various laws passed by Congress.  It is a very large annual survey, as WU's post makes plain.


    ------------------------------
    Andrew Beveridge
    Professor of Sociology
    Queens and Grad Center CUNY
    CEO of Social Explorer
    Redistricting and Litigation Consultant
    ------------------------------



  • 16.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-19-2018 14:21

    I don't think the reference is to 100 questions asked at the same time, only that over the course of time there have been a large number of additional questions asked on different census questionnaires.  And I don't think the respondent who mentioned "a hundred other questions" was implying the survey was 101 questions long.  We are statisticians and speak in approximations. 


    Raoul Burchette

    Biostatistician III

    Research and Evaluation, SCPMG

    100 S. Los Robles Avenue

    Pasadena, CA 91101

    message phone:  626-564-3471 (8.338.3471)

    email:  Raoul.J.Burchette@kp.org


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  • 17.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-20-2018 12:27
    Edited by Michael Ikeda 04-20-2018 12:28
    In response to Howard Wainer's ​suggestion.

    Part of the usual process in adding a question to the Decennial Census questionnaire would indeed be testing the question out in a research sample of the previous Decennial Census.

    ------------------------------
    Michael Ikeda
    ------------------------------



  • 18.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-15-2018 19:25

    In response to the comment that "It's not obvious why we need an actual enumeration of citizens", let me offer one compelling reason why: The U.S. Constitution, Article 1, Section 2, Paragraph #3.


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  • 19.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-16-2018 10:15

    My bad. The citation I should have offered, but didn't, was as follows: The U.S. Constitution, Article 1, Section 2, Paragraph #3, as amended by Amendment XIV, Section 2, and by Amendments XIX and XXVI.


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  • 20.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-12-2018 16:51
    An addition of fact to what Terry Meyer wrote above -- the citizenship question was also in every census between 1890 and 1940 inclusive. (The original handwritten census records through 1940 are publicly available and accessible online from various genealogy sites. An incredible resource for those researching family history). 

    In general, this is a political issue and not a statistical issue. It's hard for me to understand why it's at all objectionable to count citizens to begin with. Whatever one's views about immigration policy, a willing ignorance of the facts seems inimical to a finding a politically satisfactory policy solution. 

    And it seems completely inappropriate to me for the ASA leadership to apply our organization's name to their personal political agendas. How insulting to the members that our collective name be borrowed to express opinions without regard to the diversity of views among us.

    The ASA as an organization should stick to statistical matters, and leave unrelated political opinions to the members to figure out for ourselves.

    ------------------------------
    Stefan Sharkansky
    Bellevue, WA
    ------------------------------



  • 21.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-14-2018 21:39
    One reason people are more nervous about a citizenship question on the Census vs the ACS is that the Census data are reported on
    a finer-grained level: census blocks for the Census, block groups [an aggregate of census blocks] for the ACS. A typical block group
    has about 40 census blocks in it. Think about it--if I told you that there was a non-citizen on your block, do you think you could
    figure out who it might be? Do you think politicians drawing Congressional districts, who already use available data to craft district boundaries
    down to the block level, might find such information useful to assort potential non-citizens more efficiently?  Would you feel comfortable
    answering this question (or, perhaps, responding to the Census at all), if you thought the published data would allow someone at ICE
    to come get you or someone in your household, even if you didn't think someone at the Census would simply (illegally) forward the raw data over to ICE?

    BTW, the ACS has effectively replaced the old long-form sample within the Census.  ( I actually got the long-form Census once--the
    question about refrigerators was intriguing.)

    Another problem has been that respondents haven't always been sure how to answer the question, unless it carefully lists all the
    ways one can be either a natural-born or naturalized citizen.

    As to why, as someone asked, the Census is a census rather than a population survey: The point has been raised multiple times
    by professional statisticians both inside and outside the Census Bureau that a well-crafted and carefully adjusted survey could actually be
    more accurate at enumeration than the current Census. But Congress (at least members who don't trust scientists, mathematicians, or statisticians)
    has insisted, and the Supreme Court has ruled, that for apportionment purposes, sampling is prohibited, and the phrase "actual Enumeration"
    in the Constitution means an actual Census.  (I'm old enough that I remember this question coming around as far back as the 1970 Census, but I'm
    sure it was raised before that.)
    Note that for purposes other than enumerating the population, including whether or not a particular address that has not responded
    to the mailed Census form is actually a place where people might reside to be enumerated, the Census Bureau is allowed by law
    (13 US Code section 195,upheld in Supreme Court cases such as Utah v. Evans) to use sampling techniques.

    Also note that for the purposes of apportionment, the original wording of the Constitution's enumeration clause makes it pretty
    clear that citizenship was not a prerequisite for being enumerated for the purposes of apportionment--remember the
    "three fifths of all other persons"? Those "other persons" were slaves, who were certainly not considered citizens.
















  • 22.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-13-2018 10:41
    An important clarification.

    While a citizenship question was asked of a sample of the population in the 1960-2000 Censuses, it has NOT been asked of all persons since the 1950 Census.

    Links to historical lists of questions can currently be found here: https://www.census.gov/history/www/through_the_decades/questionnaires/

    ------------------------------
    Michael Ikeda
    ------------------------------



  • 23.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-13-2018 10:42
    Edited by Michael Ikeda 04-13-2018 10:43
    Sorry, posted the wrong link for the lists of questions.  The correct link is below.

    https://www.census.gov/history/www/through_the_decades/index_of_questions

    ------------------------------
    Michael Ikeda
    ------------------------------



  • 24.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-18-2018 07:43
    See the latest piece in the Washington Post!

    "We already know the citizenship question will hurt the census. Alabama tried it."
    Here is the link:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/we-already-know-the-citizenship-question-will-hurt-the-census-alabama-tried-it/2018/04/17/395c8cca-41ba-11e8-ad8f-27a8c409298b_story.html

    ------------------------------
    Andrew Beveridge
    Professor of Sociology
    Queens and Grad Center CUNY
    CEO and Co-Founder Social Explorer
    Redistricting and Litigation Consultant
    ------------------------------



  • 25.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-19-2018 17:03
    The Washington Post article referenced is an op-ed piece by an employee of a pro illegal immigrant organization. The comparison it makes (a school questionnaire asking for a birth certificate to the census) is not only flawed, but the data presented were either anecdotal or without any comparative data. Here's a key sentence "The likely impact of a citizenship question on the census would surely be far more profound." There is no evidence of which I am aware that citizenship questions have depressed response rates either in prior censuses or in the ACS. Further, as statisticians, we know how to deal with non-response bias, and use these methods for other groups and situations.

    The non-response issue is a red herring. The real issue is there is a large contingent of people who do not WANT to know the answer.






  • 26.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-20-2018 16:06
    Edited by David Corliss 04-24-2018 17:11
    Several persons here have suggested that various statistical modeling methods may be used to address an under-count. For example, Terry Meyer wrote "...as statisticians, we know how to deal with non-response bias, and use these methods for other groups and situations. The non-response issue is a red herring." (My original comments incorrectly attributed this Andrew Beveridge of CUNY - I was in error. Sincere thanks are due to Angela de la Mora for bringing this to my attention and the ASA for allowing editing of posts.)
    There are two issues here:

    1. I believe we can be nearly universal in the assessment that imputation of missing data is not trivial and that such models are not perfect. Thus, this proposal offers to spend more time and money to produce an inferior analytical result. This is not a sound recommendation, especially if it can be avoided by doing nothing - i.e., not adding the question. 

    2. Statistical estimates, corrections, and modeling are not allowed to address any issues in the enumeration for the purposes of apportionment. In the 1998 case Department of Commerce et al. v. United States House of Representatives et al., the United States Supreme Court considered this very question, deciding " the Court concludes that the Census Act prohibits the proposed uses of statistical sampling in calculating the population for purposes of apportionment".

    Use of various statistical methods to address an under-count in apportionment are the actual Red Herring, because they have been specifically banned by Congress in the Census Act of 1954 as amended, affirmed by the Supreme Court. When it comes to counting all residents for the purposes of apportionment as required in the Constitution, only actual enumeration - not estimates or modeling - can be used.

    Please see https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/98-404.ZS.html

    It should be noted that, in this same case, the presence of under-counting and its associated bias was confirmed.  Data prepared by the National Academy of Sciences and submitted to the Court found an under-count of 1.8% in the general population and 5.7% among the African American population.

    Please see http://www.scienceclarified.com/dispute/Vol-2/Should-statistical-sampling-be-used-in-the-United-States-Census.html

    The bias in the under-count is clear and well-documented to harm minorities. Nonetheless, the Supreme Court has found the Census Act as written does not allow for the use of statistical methods: only direct counting of individuals may be used. Therefore, adding questions to encourage further under-counting may be employed as a political tactic by whichever party receives fewer votes from a targeted minority - in this case, citizen householders of non-citizens.  





  • 27.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-23-2018 15:27

    One of the better discussions I've seen is at:
    https://www.npr.org/2018/01/10/575145554/adding-citizenship-question-risks-bad-count-for-2020-census-experts-warn

    A couple of obvious statistical issues are:
     (1) when one changes a survey (like the census), results will differ from the previous version, and it will take some research to determine if the difference is overt or subtle, and in which direction the bias will occur. Now is the time for finalizing the census question, as there is insufficient time to properly test versions of the census, while an abundance of evidence implies that increasing distrust of government institutions will reduce response rate compared to other years.

    (2) Citizenship is already asked as part of the American Community Survey, which is an annual survey of 1 in 38 households. The fact that it is a random survey of a subset of households more likely than not increases the accuracy, as respondants have more assurance that they cannot be individually identified (and so far the ACS has not been in the political spotlight). One cannot argue that it's already on the census because it's in the ACS, nor that adding it to the decennial will be harmless because of that. 

    It's good to see that the ASA has made a statement on the issue (If statisticians will not speak authoritatively on this, who can?).



    ------------------------------
    Dennis Sweitzer
    Principal Biostatistician
    ------------------------------



  • 28.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-25-2018 09:41
    Seems like your point two conflicts with your point one.  The citizenship question has been tested and used in the ACS (among other places) as you note. I've said the reason for inclusion in the census is crosstabs, not to identify any individual, which is forbidden and not possible without the actual form anyway.






  • 29.  RE: The Citizenship Question in the 2020 Census

    Posted 04-19-2018 18:53
    People lie about household composition.  Sometimes they lie only for social purposes because they don't want friends to know about changes in their family situation.  Other people lie because they want a benefit from another jurisdiction such as schools, or housing or lower insurance rates.  Who hasn't heard about a family moving but letting their high school student finish in the old district or someone using their parents' address for a drivers license?    So I am sure that some of these people carry these lies to the census form, leading to undercounts.  However, others will not associate the census with the lies they tell to friends or local agencies and provide valid family information.   This sounds like what would happen with a citizenship question, even for legal residents.  Since the goal of the census is enumeration of residents, not citizens, there should be an effort to maximize response and accuracy.

    It seems like there should be a way to combine ACS data with naturalization and birth data to get an estimate of citizenship rates in a census tract.



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    Georgette Asherman
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