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lesson not learned from the 1918 pandemic

  • 1.  lesson not learned from the 1918 pandemic

    Posted 07-07-2020 12:15
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    This may be old news but I found two graphs of Covid-19 cases from last month which had an uncanny resemblance to a graph given in a paper by Hatchett, et al. (2007) (see below for citation).  When the two original curves in their graph were replaced by bell curves in order to illustrate flattening the curve, a lesson was lost. I have attached a PDF showing what I found. I have been off this discussion list for about a year and apologize if this has been thoroughly discussed.

    Mark

    R. J., Mecher, C. E., & Lipsitch, M. (2007). Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104(18), 7582-7587. Retrieved at https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582?__ac_lkid=f639-efd2-f4de-3e717151efc501

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    Mark Eakin
    Distinguished Teaching Professor
    University of Texas at Arlington
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    Attachment(s)

    pdf
    comparison to 1918.pdf   218 KB 1 version