Dear all
Presently the media are hyping a report from the University of Minnesota in which the duration of the pandemic is being forecast:
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/default/files/public/downloads/cidrap-covid19-viewpoint-part1.pdfAs a data science professional, I would care to learn more about how the report got to its conclusions. I do not see any links to data, most assumptions, let alone reproducible models. A corresponding GitHub stack would be welcome.
Yet without any of these the media seem to see it as a sound argument that the pandemic is sure to last for another two years, notably ignoring the third scenario in the report, e.g.:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-01/covid-19-pandemic-likely-to-last-two-years-report-saysForecasting is prime territory for statisticians and I would like to see our community engage in these discussions. What is believed at the highest levels around a 'second peak' will impact our lives.
Best regards
Sven
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Sven Serneels
(Director, Data Analytics - posting in this forum as a private person)
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